Mavs 107, Kings 121

[Jason Terry]

One of the main chemistry goals of the season is (or should be) to perfect the Luka-KP synergy thing, and the grade is incomplete, at best. 

I am not an adherent of the idea that this is some snit-induced conspiracy on the part of Luka and the other guys to sabotage KP. I almost wish that were all there were to it, because that would be the easiest thing to fix. I think this is a more systemic issue. 

Carlisle has admitted that he likes to use KP as a spacer, to draw off a good defender, and then play four-on-four to attack weaker defenders. That is built into the system, and requires an adjustment to fix. Rick has acknowledged that it is on him to make sure that the offense is balanced, and KP gets a chance to shine. While KP should cooperate with the system, I can't fault him for not wanting to stand in the corner the whole game -- that is surely not maximizing his considerable talents, and is not getting any closer to solidifying a Luka-KP synergistic duo. 

The other part of the system that results in this issue, imo, is the flow offense, especially as managed by a young point guard, talented though he is. This type of offense inherently does not produce a predictable "x shots for A, y shots for B" pattern throughout any particular game. It has a certain catch-as-catch-can element to it, and different players will get more or fewer than their "fair share" of attempts, based on how the game is going. 

A layer of complexity to the offense for the point guard is making sure that everyone stays involved. Luka said after this very game that it is on him to "keep everyone motivated." I might not go that far, but it is part of his job to make sure that everyone is engaged offensively, in addition to looking for the open shooter and getting the best attempt available. That's an enormous job, especially for a 22-year-old, and it isn't that surprising that it doesn't always come off, and you get odd shooting distributions like last night, especially when some players are having cold games. 

Ultimately, it is on the coaching staff to develop a system that results in the two stars being greater than the sum of the parts, or to determine after reasonable effort that their two games are not compatible enough to make that happen. And, of course, it's then on the players to execute on the court. I don't think the team has unlocked that synergy, and the compressed season may not allow time for much experimentation in that direction or any other. 

I think it's going to take more than just telling Luka not to intentionally look KP off. I imagine he has already been given that instruction, or just knows it. But if they can't get it figured out, they'll be forced to trade KP. I don't think they're likely to get equivalent value for him, so I look for them to continue to try to make it work, at least for one more season, unless something breaks for them trade-wise.

The other option would be to get in a new coaching staff, to see if some fresh ideas would produce something more workable. If it is a choice between KP and Rick, I rather think Cuban would choose Rick, but it's certainly not for sure.

Well said very diplomatic version of the status quo. Respect to you. 

It's not easy to explain this failure. The KP-Luka synergy has been near nonexistent(catch and shoot doesn’t count). Maybe the most blame should be directed at RC for the system we run and instructions given. I really doubt it since he’s known as perhaps the best X and O’s coach in the league. RC also seems like the type of guy to scrap everything if the system isn’t working. Maybe none of that is true and RC is done here? That narrative doesn’t fit his actions though. He’s not coaching for his job, he’s going through the motions like everyone else. 

You hit the nail on the head with the 2 man game. Where has that been? There’s a dozen variations of the pick and roll that our superstars never run. Almost zero creativity or working together between them. Why? It’s a total waste of talent. Together they should be dominating. It should be our bread and butter. Why is it not? 

The defensive end is even more of a train wreck. What can our max player superstar KP do on that end? He can’t rim protect nightly. He can’t guard 4’s in this league who blow right past him. What can he do? If he really is part of this team he would have no problem giving effort every night. He plays in half the games and gives effort in half of those. No team can succeed under these circumstances. 

Yes blame for Luka is out there and maybe it’s all his fault. It’s not even worth mentioning because he’s not the guy you move on from.

[Kammrath]

But if they can't get it figured out, they'll be forced to trade KP. I don't think they're likely to get equivalent value for him, so I look for them to continue to try to make it work, at least for one more season, unless something breaks for them trade-wise.

If Luka and KP do not turn a magical corner in 20 games, then the Mavs HAVE to trade KP this summer. I think the Mavs lose MORE as a franchise by holding onto him one more season on the treadmill of mediocrity then biting the bullet and getting less than they think he is worth. 

You might be right, but suffering through another season of crappy chemistry as a fan sounds as fun as self-mutilation. I am really not sure I could watch many games next season if the Mavs stand pat......UGH.

[Kammrath]

If KP should be mad any anyone, it should be JRich who is even less efficient than KP.

All the offense run through JR is the most baffling thing. I have NO IDEA how RC can stand there and allow a 11.5 PER, 54% TS% player take almost 11 shots per game (which is more than JB who shoots 62.5% TS%!).

[Jason Terry]

All the offense run through JR is the most baffling thing. I have NO IDEA how RC can stand there and allow a 11.5 PER, 54% TS% player take almost 11 shots per game (which is more than JB who shoots 62.5% TS%!).

Right there with you now. Burn it all down. I was the last of the mohicans with j rich. Let’s move on. Even rick and donnie should feel the heat. Bring in that guy Mike Forde and he can tell Cuban how far off the beaten path we’ve strayed

[mavsluvr]

If Luka and KP do not turn a magical corner in 20 games, then the Mavs HAVE to trade KP this summer. I think the Mavs lose MORE as a franchise by holding onto him one more season on the treadmill of mediocrity then biting the bullet and getting less than they think he is worth. 

You might be right, but suffering through another season of crappy chemistry as a fan sounds as fun as self-mutilation. I am really not sure I could watch many games next season if the Mavs stand pat......UGH.

LOL (at gif).

Well, it is possible that I'm being unduly pessimistic about what KP would bring in trade. But if not, I don't think they're ready to let him go for peanuts. Of course, that's just my opinion. 

I rather think that if they move on from KP in the near future, it will either be because (1) KP demands a trade due to dissatisfaction with his role in the offense, or (2) they decide they can't win without better defense from his position.

Trading him now would be a spectacular admission of failure, and I don't see any signs that they are ready to go there at this point. I don't think they will stand pat this summer. In fact, I think they will be aggressive about trying to improve the team substantially while they still have the room to do it. But I can see them trying to improve around Luka and KP, rather than going back to square one and resuming the hunt for a second potential superstar.

If things haven't worked out by next offseason, I can see the matter assuming a greater sense of urgency, due to their feeling at that point that they have truly done everything they could to make it work, and didn't give up after a crazy COVID season. 

I get how you feel, and can't blame you for it. Maybe I'll be wrong. Maybe some sort of KP for AD or Zion situation will spring up. Or maybe the MBT will decide they've seen enough. I've been surprised before.

[mavsluvr]

Right there with you now. Burn it all down. I was the last of the mohicans with j rich. Let’s move on. Even rick and donnie should feel the heat. Bring in that guy Mike Forde and he can tell Cuban how far off the beaten path we’ve strayed

I could definitely see the Mavs moving on from Richardson. Or even moving him out of the starting lineup, at least for a while. Or starting him, but not using him in closing lineups of close games. I think they've already mostly taken that step.

[SleepingHero]

If Luka and KP do not turn a magical corner in 20 games, then the Mavs HAVE to trade KP this summer. I think the Mavs lose MORE as a franchise by holding onto him one more season on the treadmill of mediocrity then biting the bullet and getting less than they think he is worth. 

You might be right, but suffering through another season of crappy chemistry as a fan sounds as fun as self-mutilation. I am really not sure I could watch many games next season if the Mavs stand pat......UGH.

Has the thought ever crossed your mind that there is another 3rd variable that's affecting the Luka/KP pairing and causing it to have issues?

Bare with me for a moment. Entertain the idea. 

What if the lack of talent at our other 3 positions is causing the Luka/KP pairing to look much worse? We know how gravity from role players affect others on the court. It's why Luka is so valuable and why us giving away Seth for Brickerson was a massive mistake (that the Mavs are trying to fix with Redick). 

Could it be possible that DFS/Maxi/___ trifecta is just not good enough for other teams to seriously put any effort in guarding? I think so. And the numbers also tell that story. Here's the frequency of 3pt shots DFS/Maxi/THJ/JRich all take when their defender is 6+ feet away.
DFS: 54.1% (meaning 54.1% of DFS 3pt shots, the defender is 6+ feet away. In other words: wide open)
Maxi: 62.6%
JRich: 18.5% (Of all the shots JRich has taken, only 46% of them are threes. meaning he takes more 2's) 
THJ: 15.5%

Now here are their shooting percentages on these 3pt shots that are wide open.
DFS: 39.4%
Maxi: 43%
JRich: 27.0%
THJ: 39.8%

JRich being the obvious outlier. Also the fact that these guys are only shooting 40% on wide open threes is a little disappointing. Maxi the only one with respectable numbers but I guess you can say I'm being nitpicky. 

Bump down to the next category where the defender is within 4-6 feet and is classified as an open shot the shooting percentages are as follows:
DFS: 27%
Maxi: 35%
JRich: 37.3%
THJ: 38.7%

Oh... oh my... Basically, if DFS and Maxi are not WIDE OPEN, they are extremely below average 3pt shooters. JRich gets a noted bump though he still takes more two's than threes. THJ stays relatively the same. Remember, this is still classified as an open shot. If we bump it down to the next category of 2-4 feet aka guarded, it gets worse for everyone.

What does this mean? Essentially 2 out of the 3 role players on the court with our stars  require WIDE OPEN shot attempts to be effective. Do you know how hard that is to do consistently in the NBA? In fact I'm shocked. It's a testament to Luka's gravity that DFS/Maxi get consistent minutes. 

Add in JRich inconsistencies and tendency to prefer the midrange, you get a good defending team with no spacing. Which of course we've seen the effects of. Why aren't we thinking about how this affects how Luka and KP operate on the court? 

I ask, does it make more sense to trade away the 25 year old 7'3 "unicorn" averaging 20ppg, that can shoot from anywhere, and is currently having a career year in terms of efficiency. OR should the Mavs look to upgrade the pieces around them like we've all been asking for the last 2 years and see what happens?

I take option B. Not just because it's the least ground shaking option, but to me makes the most sense. Mavs would be pulling the plug before we even see the Luka/KP pairing take off. 

*( I understand it's not as clear cut as that. KP has his own issues like health and defense. He's gotten better at the defense part. The health remains to be seen).

[omahen]

What if the lack of talent at our other 3 positions is causing the Luka/KP pairing to look much worse?

That is an excellent post and certainly my observation from last couple of games. Defenses are now basically one guy on KP and the rest more or less pack the paint daring non Luka/KP players to beat them. Even with Luka having 19 assists they weren't able to.

[cow]

Bare with me for a moment. Entertain the idea. 

What if the lack of talent at our other 3 positions is causing the Luka/KP pairing to look much worse? We know how gravity from role players affect others on the court. It's why Luka is so valuable and why us giving away Seth for Brickerson was a massive mistake (that the Mavs are trying to fix with Redick). 

I like your though experiment but it just makes me feel even more hopeless.  We took the best signing we've had in the past two offseasons (a guy with an elite talent, who wanted to be here and took a very team friendly contract) and flipped him for a one year rental of a master-of-none type player and less than half a season of Redick, who clearly doesn't want to be here.  

So even if the other positions are a problem and gravity is effected the KP/Luka dynamic, the MBT track record of late is abysmal so I wouldn't hold my breath in that getting fixed.  Further, the highest paid player on your team should be elevating those around him and able to get his so I do reject the premise a bit, even if I think DFS/Maxi are better suited as rotational pieces rather than starters.

[Jason Terry]

When did we try a two man game with Luka-KP? 

What can KP contribute defensively every night he’s on the court? 

These seem like questions nobody can answer 

The rest of the guys might be weak or whatever, but still doesn’t change the fact we can’t answer the most important questions

[cow]

When did we try a two man game with Luka-KP? 

KP sets screens like a wet paper towel.

[omahen]

KP sets screens like a wet paper towel.

What I don't understand is why they have zero PnR game. KP never rolls to the basket this season (he did last one), it is always pick and pop. This is making our game extremely one dimensional.

[cow]

What I don't understand is why they have zero PnR game. KP never rolls to the basket this season (he did last one), it is always pick and pop. This is making our game extremely one dimensional.

The majority of the offense is Luka drive to either a shot or kick for a brick or Luka letting the air out of the ball and jacking up a difficult, long, step-back threes.  It's just very predictable and we don't have the 3PT shooting talent to make that sustainable.   Luka not getting calls on drives isn't helping the situation.  If we put our fandom aside and take away the 2-3 spectacular plays that Luka makes every game, this team doesn't play an entertaining brand of basketball.  The analytics world went crazy with devaluing the 3PT shot, but not everyone has the talent level of GSW's shooters who have skillsets well beyond their gaudy 3PT averages.  I'd say we feel a lot like the Harden led Rockets except we don't get near as many favorable calls.  I wish we'd stick KP in the wing spots/corner more as that seems to be where Luka likes to pass it more often than not.

Right now it feels like the team is dependent on Jalen having a good game in order to have a chance at winning and more than likely, both he and Timmy (who's been slumping in April).  Luka will of course get his and keep the team respectable.

[SleepingHero]

When did we try a two man game with Luka-KP? 

What can KP contribute defensively every night he’s on the court? 

There have been flashes with both of these things. See: Detroit Pistons vs. Mavs Mexico City last year if you want that 2 man game flash.

The defense is touch and go. I felt last year KP was more locked in on defense. He had trouble in the PnR but in everything else he looked great in. 

It's up to the coaching staff to put KP and Luka in the right positions so it CAN work. So far I think they've been failing there.

[cow]

There have been flashes with both of these things. See: Detroit Pistons vs. Mavs Mexico City last year if you want that 2 man game flash.

Considering how long ago that was, that's damning for everyone involved.

[mavsluvr]

I ask, does it make more sense to trade away the 25 year old 7'3 "unicorn" averaging 20ppg, that can shoot from anywhere, and is currently having a career year in terms of efficiency. OR should the Mavs look to upgrade the pieces around them like we've all been asking for the last 2 years and see what happens?

Thanks for the observations. I think this is exactly the way the front office will see it. 


I don't know if they will be able to substantially upgrade the starting lineup, but I think that is what it will take to move this team to the next level. Once the moves are made, at the end of the day, I don't think the offense will end up being the problem, as far as KP is concerned. More likely it will be whether they can live with him on the defensive end. Imho,  anyway.

[DanSchwartzgan]

What if the lack of talent at our other 3 positions is causing the Luka/KP pairing to look much worse?

 

There is kind of a chicken vs. the egg issue with trying to prove your point.  For instance, Powell and WCS look really good defensively in On/Off data.  Is it because they are really good defensively or because they aren't on the court when KP is on the court?

If your theory is correct, the place to start looking is THJ and JRich.  According to 82games.com, they are by far our two most negative regulars in terms of Net On-Off.  Both are putting up really bad defensive numbers.  KP and Luka are also, but at least KP and Luka contribute positive On-Off numbers offensively.      

Lineup data backs this up.  Get this...We have only FOUR negative Net Rating pairs among pairs with over 300 minutes together.  THJ/JRich is -6.2.  THJ/KP is -4.5.  THJ/Maxi is -1.7 and THJ/DFS is -0.9.  Notice a pattern?  Let that sink in a minute.  Those negative THJ lineups are the only negative two man lineups we have among ALL pairings with over 300 minutes.   

JRich is Luka's worst pairing at 0.7.  If you go to three man lineups, the THJ/JRich/Luka combo at -6.6 is Luka's worst lineup followed by THJ/KP/Luka at -5.6.   KP has several bad three man lineups including the one I just mentioned and  THJ/KP/DFS at -6.9 and THJ/KP/JRich at -5.3.  It does appear that THJ or JRich (or THJ and JRich) are negatively impacting the on court success of our stars (or our stars are negatively impacting the on court success of THJ and JRich, but wouldn't Brunson, Maxi and DFS also be suffering if that were the case?).

THJ has seen a big drop off in April and I'm tempted to throw him under the bus.  But, it wasn't this bad last season...in fact, it was good (5.6 On and 1.7 On-Off).  In both this and last season he's been better as a SG than as a SF (but he rarely plays SG this season).  A lot of that SG time last season came in the very successful Luka/THJ/DFS/Powell/KP lineup which hasn't been tried this season.   This season Maxi has supplanted Powell, but we've only seen 22 minutes of Luka/THJ/DFS/Maxi/KP.  Net Rating is 10.  In much the same way we struggle when DFS plays PF (but do great when he's SF), I wonder if JRich's arrival and Brunson's emergence has pushed THJ into a spot where he struggles to succeed.  Of course, the whole reason JRich was brought in (and DWright before him) is someone has to guard the point of attack and Luka and THJ are ill suited.  THJ might have more value as a SG, but it won't be on a team with Luka as PG.  

[ItsGoTime]

If KP’s value isn’t at or above what we paid for him, I want to keep him and build a team that makes up for his and Luka’s weaknesses as they are to this point. 

Luka’s biggest “weaknesses” are his inability to sustain high level of play for the whole season and defending his counterpart...the point of attack. Solution is more play makers and distributors and point of attack defenders (more and/or better).

I think Ball and esp Brogdon fit that need the best. There are a few lesser name versions out there like Korkmaz and Satoransky, I even think Bogdanovic could still be that guy for us (he hasn’t shown much in Atl, but he was good in Sac). Would love to see up and coming names that fit that bill and might be gettable.

KP’s biggest “weaknesses” are his mobility on defense and defending bigger players. Solution is either a big bodied, mobile 4 OR a big bodied, mobile 5. 

I’ve been on the Turner train for a couple years because of this need (Favors for longer than Turner). My biggest want as a 4 option WAS Marcus Morris until last playoffs, now I’m wanting to know who is the up and coming version of him.

[SleepingHero]

 

There is kind of a chicken vs. the egg issue with trying to prove your point.  For instance, Powell and WCS look really good defensively in On/Off data.  Is it because they are really good defensively or because they aren't on the court when KP is on the court?

If your theory is correct, the place to start looking is THJ and JRich.  According to 82games.com, they are by far our two most negative regulars in terms of Net On-Off.  Both are putting up really bad defensive numbers.  KP and Luka are also, but at least KP and Luka contribute positive On-Off numbers offensively.      

Lineup data backs this up.  Get this...We have only FOUR negative Net Rating pairs among pairs with over 300 minutes together.  THJ/JRich is -6.2.  THJ/KP is -4.5.  THJ/Maxi is -1.7 and THJ/DFS is -0.9.  Notice a pattern?  Let that sink in a minute.  Those negative THJ lineups are the only negative two man lineups we have among ALL pairings with over 300 minutes.   

JRich is Luka's worst pairing at 0.7.  If you go to three man lineups, the THJ/JRich/Luka combo at -6.6 is Luka's worst lineup followed by THJ/KP/Luka at -5.6.   KP has several bad three man lineups including the one I just mentioned and  THJ/KP/DFS at -6.9 and THJ/KP/JRich at -5.3.  It does appear that THJ or JRich (or THJ and JRich) are negatively impacting the on court success of our stars (or our stars are negatively impacting the on court success of THJ and JRich, but wouldn't Brunson, Maxi and DFS also be suffering if that were the case?).

THJ has seen a big drop off in April and I'm tempted to throw him under the bus.  But, it wasn't this bad last season...in fact, it was good (5.6 On and 1.7 On-Off).  In both this and last season he's been better as a SG than as a SF (but he rarely plays SG this season).  A lot of that SG time last season came in the very successful Luka/THJ/DFS/Powell/KP lineup which hasn't been tried this season.   This season Maxi has supplanted Powell, but we've only seen 22 minutes of Luka/THJ/DFS/Maxi/KP.  Net Rating is 10.  In much the same way we struggle when DFS plays PF (but do great when he's SF), I wonder if JRich's arrival and Brunson's emergence has pushed THJ into a spot where he struggles to succeed.  Of course, the whole reason JRich was brought in (and DWright before him) is someone has to guard the point of attack and Luka and THJ are ill suited.  THJ might have more value as a SG, but it won't be on a team with Luka as PG.  

Dan you have a real good knack at breaking down On/Off data and noticing patterns. Thanks for sharing. 

The eye test certainly matches the stats shown above. THJ has looked totally lost to me since mid February. Mavs should've sold high when they had the chance.

[cow]

THJ's slump might be a blessing in disguise. Hopefully the MBT see past the fools gold and realize that after this season we are finally past one of the major prices we paid for KP.

If KP’s value isn’t at or above what we paid for him, I want to keep him and build a team that makes up for his and Luka’s weaknesses as they are to this point. 

There is no chance you'd get a young player picked in the top 10, 2 future FRPs and salary dumps for KP at this juncture.  He's had another serious knee injury, is under a larger contract and has only played one back-to-back game this season.  I'm not sure that's a good reason to keep the pairing either.  What's that old saying about history repeating itself?