10-22-2020, 08:00 AM
The Athletic has spent the week putting out Tier's of NBA players. Luka is ranked 8th behind AD. Top six come out tomorrow and in some order will include LeBron, GA, Leonard, Hardin, Curry and KD. KP was rated in the mid 40's (with upside) and THJ, Curry and Maxi were Tier 5 (80-125) along with a ton of the names we discuss here a lot. Below is their write-up on Luka. I think they are spot on regarding the issue of winning a championship with a heliocentric offense:
https://theathletic.com/2088789/2020/10/...dy-gobert/
For [b]Luka Doncic[/b] it might just be a matter of time. He’s already so far ahead of where anyone could have reasonably expected in this time frame that it almost feels like an insult to not have him in Tier 1. He won’t turn 22 until February! Part of Tier 1 status is dependability. Certainly, the ability to give us one season like Doncic’s 2019-20 is a great sign for the likelihood of him doing so again, but there does need to be a little bit of a “prove it” factor.
From a skills standpoint, he could use a more reliable 3-point stroke. Interestingly, he’s never profiled as a great shooter, hitting only 33.3 percent of his attempts from the European line before coming to the NBA. Some of this was youth, some was degree of difficulty. The latter has followed him into the NBA, as only James Harden had a higher average difficulty on his 3-point attempts than did Doncic, and at this point Harden is a significantly more consistent shotmaker from deep.
Doncic’s willingness to take and make just enough step backs and off-the-dribble attempts likely assist with the deceptiveness of his game, which allows him to get into the paint and use his size and agility to either finish, draw contact or find the most absurd of passing angles. But even on the open shots he does get, he has been below average, hitting 34.6 percent of his career uncontested 3-pointers (league average is around 38.5 percent).
There is also the defensive end of the floor, where he is 328th in 3-year DRAPM and 316th in 3-year DPIPM. Some of this is a lack of lateral quickness, but some is also about effort, or really the conservation thereof.
That brings me to the real question, and one which hangs over a few players in Tier 1 as well: Can a heliocentric offense prosper in the playoffs without LeBron James being the sun? We’re early enough in the period where a significant number of teams are employing their star player as a quasi-quarterback, directing half or more of the offensive action. So far, I would say the returns aren’t encouraging.
The Rockets and Harden disappointed the last two years, the Bucks flamed out in part because of the predictability of an attack as Giannis-centric as theirs has been. The bubble perhaps provides some extenuating circumstances, but Kawhi Leonard visibly tired under the burden in the Clippers’ second-round series. The Hawks and Trae Young have a ways to go to even make the playoffs.
Adding to that story, Doncic’s Mavs were game, with the absence of Kristaps Porzingis contributed mightily to their first-round demise. More worrisome than the result itself was the lack of offensive spark elsewhere on the roster when Doncic was either off the floor or not playing as well as he would like. Whether this is a failure of roster construction overall, or a reflection of how much standing and watching the player who led the NBA in time of possession percentage can cause other players’ creativity to atrophy is an open question, with probably a little of both.
So with time, Doncic needs to prove not only that he can continue his own level of individual brilliance, but also that he can either assimilate into a more egalitarian concept or that he is good enough to break through the ceiling these one-man bands have seemed to hit in the last few postseasons.
https://theathletic.com/2088789/2020/10/...dy-gobert/
For [b]Luka Doncic[/b] it might just be a matter of time. He’s already so far ahead of where anyone could have reasonably expected in this time frame that it almost feels like an insult to not have him in Tier 1. He won’t turn 22 until February! Part of Tier 1 status is dependability. Certainly, the ability to give us one season like Doncic’s 2019-20 is a great sign for the likelihood of him doing so again, but there does need to be a little bit of a “prove it” factor.
From a skills standpoint, he could use a more reliable 3-point stroke. Interestingly, he’s never profiled as a great shooter, hitting only 33.3 percent of his attempts from the European line before coming to the NBA. Some of this was youth, some was degree of difficulty. The latter has followed him into the NBA, as only James Harden had a higher average difficulty on his 3-point attempts than did Doncic, and at this point Harden is a significantly more consistent shotmaker from deep.
Doncic’s willingness to take and make just enough step backs and off-the-dribble attempts likely assist with the deceptiveness of his game, which allows him to get into the paint and use his size and agility to either finish, draw contact or find the most absurd of passing angles. But even on the open shots he does get, he has been below average, hitting 34.6 percent of his career uncontested 3-pointers (league average is around 38.5 percent).
There is also the defensive end of the floor, where he is 328th in 3-year DRAPM and 316th in 3-year DPIPM. Some of this is a lack of lateral quickness, but some is also about effort, or really the conservation thereof.
That brings me to the real question, and one which hangs over a few players in Tier 1 as well: Can a heliocentric offense prosper in the playoffs without LeBron James being the sun? We’re early enough in the period where a significant number of teams are employing their star player as a quasi-quarterback, directing half or more of the offensive action. So far, I would say the returns aren’t encouraging.
The Rockets and Harden disappointed the last two years, the Bucks flamed out in part because of the predictability of an attack as Giannis-centric as theirs has been. The bubble perhaps provides some extenuating circumstances, but Kawhi Leonard visibly tired under the burden in the Clippers’ second-round series. The Hawks and Trae Young have a ways to go to even make the playoffs.
Adding to that story, Doncic’s Mavs were game, with the absence of Kristaps Porzingis contributed mightily to their first-round demise. More worrisome than the result itself was the lack of offensive spark elsewhere on the roster when Doncic was either off the floor or not playing as well as he would like. Whether this is a failure of roster construction overall, or a reflection of how much standing and watching the player who led the NBA in time of possession percentage can cause other players’ creativity to atrophy is an open question, with probably a little of both.
So with time, Doncic needs to prove not only that he can continue his own level of individual brilliance, but also that he can either assimilate into a more egalitarian concept or that he is good enough to break through the ceiling these one-man bands have seemed to hit in the last few postseasons.