10-02-2020, 02:39 PM
(10-02-2020, 02:14 PM)KillerLeft Wrote: how predictive numbers can be when trying to determine whether a defender can go from poor to slightly above average on a new team
The best predictor of the future (from an odds standpoint) is the past. So past performance IS the most likely outcome. However, there are SO many variables at work that you actually never know. People change, systems change, randomness strikes, etc.