2019-20 Around the NBA: Archived

[SleepingHero]

I mean, there actually might be some teams who NEED to reduce salary, depending on how that shakes out.

I also haven't seen anything concrete that teams might be in real trouble. So I am assuming teams will try to avoid tax or not go into tax to heavily. If we look at teams that are projected to be in tax under 109 cap estimate, this is the list:
- GSW (+16 mil in tax)
- Philly (+15)
- Brooklyn (+9)
- Boston (+9)

Not really teams one would expect to aggresively trade out of tax teritory. I can see GSW not excercising their trade exemption to bring another 17 milllion player, I can see Philly traying to not add to tax, Brooklyn perhaps not resigning Harris and Boston not bringing in someone for MLE. But I don't see any of them just giving away players to avoid tax.

Next group of teams are close to the tax line:
- Houston 
- Indiana
- Orlando
- Milwaukee

Milwaukee would be really stupid to be cheap this season. They have to show Giannis they want to win or he will be gone. They have decent contracts that give them flexibility: Bledsoe, RLopez, Wilson, Ilyasova, even Hill.

Houston can most easily avoid tax by trading Westbrook for less salary. If there are still teams that think he is a star. Or if they find a taker for Gordon horrible salary and get something back. Trading Harden, Tucker or Covington is basically same as surrendering.

Indiana would perhaps have to let someone like Justin Holiday go and not excercise MLE, but they don't have other problems to keep their core if they wish. Same with Orlando.

I have no idea where you got your numbers. The tax line set at the 109,000,000 cap is 132,627,000. If 2020-21 season's cap is 109,000,000 the tax line will be set the same. Numbers retrieved from Spotrac and Capulator. 

Warriors are 21,678,329 over the tax line after taking into account the 2nd pick salary. Philly after renouncing all their FA cap holds will be 14,701,441 over the tax line. Brooklyn-26,285,971 (and that's if they only keep Joe Harris' hold and sign their draft pick). Boston-15,711,789. 

HOU-114,000 over the tax line. Just barely. But that's if they renounce all their cap holds. If they decline PJ Tucker's option and waive all their non-guaranteed players then they'll be below the line, but obviously lose out on at least 2 key rotation players.
IND-800K below the tax line if they renounce everyone but Holiday and Sampson. 
ORL- If they renounce Augustin then they'd be 3m below the line.  
MIL- 2,255,061 over the line if they sign their pick, and renounce everyone but Brown and Connaughton (both of which I assume are impact players. they could renounce both and be 1.5 M under the line.) They could just waive Illyasova and be well under it but he was a key rotation piece. 

The other teams can find ways to reduce their tax as well. Brooklyn could renounce Harris and let him walk and trade their pick. But doing so would make them worse, and wouldn't that qualify as a good team letting a good player go for practically nothing because of tax reasons? Boston could waive Theis and trade their picks and be only 5m over the line. 

Either way, I don't see teams just letting player's go for nothing, even with a high tax bill. That is unless their owner is a cheap one and they're trying to tank. OKC fits this to a T. HOU could get there quick too. What is interesting is that MIL's ownership is also stingy. The only real impact 3rd star that's available to them (and fits) is CP3 and that'd put them WELL above the tax line. If they traded Bledsoe/Donte/Ersan/DJ Wilson/ then they'd be 10M over the tax line and have 3 roster spots to fill. 

And is CP3/Wes/Middleton/Giannis/Lopez that much better than what they have now since they're trading their whole bench? 1 CP3 injury and that team falls apart. AND if it does fall apart, then Giannis could bolt and leave MIL dying with Cp3's contract. Just a super risky play. 

So TL;DR I kind of agree with you that teams aren't going to gift players to other teams just because their books are high. It'd take a very specific situation, like the one in OKC (but a single CP3 trade fixes their issues), or the one potentially brewing in HOU that could arise a situation where a team gifts rotation players for pennies on the dollar. 

Other single events that could qualify as a team letting good players go is I can see SAC letting Hield go because of their choice to make with Bogdan. I can also see the Nets letting Harris go to get them under the line which is a specific case that also qualifies. Other than that, the teams most affected by the tax line (Warriors, PHI) aren't going to give away their players just because.

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Any chance Houston could get dump Gordon and Westbrook for space?

I don't know what team in the NBA could accept Westbrook's contract without sending much back in return. And even if they can would it even make any sense for them.

The only one that comes to mind is ATL. And that makes zero sense. HOU is going to have to find some dumb team to trade Westbrook and make them think they're getting a star. NYK is the only team that has the track record to make such a move. 

Rockets are kind of stuck. They hit their ceiling. Trading CP3 was the worst move they could have made and it came at the request of their lazy superstar Harden. I think if HOU wants to rebuild, its to trade Harden now. He'd command a super haul, and it'd set them up. Given how their owner is cheap, Dantoni is out and Morey seems to be out too I can see this actually happening.