STATE OF THE MAVS: 5/8 Point

[KillerLeft]

Luka's usage rate is way too high. No team should ever put that much pressure on a 22 year old player...I don't care how good he may be. That's just not putting your best player in position to succeed long-term.

I agree with this whole heartedly, and Carlisle has made many comments over the past two years which seem to indicate that he does, too.

The problem is that there is no other option on the roster that even comes close. You may not want to run Emmett Smith 30 times a game. You might REALLY try to avoid doing that. But, that option is going to win out over handing the ball to Tommy Agee or whoever the hell else they had back then.

I thought they tried Luka off ball quite a bit tonight, actually. Maybe the most of the season. Did not work.

[Kammrath]

I thought they tried Luka off ball quite a bit tonight, actually. Maybe the most of the season. Did not work.

They absolutely did. The results were mixed, but mostly poor IMO. I genuinely think Luka wants to assist more than get his own shot, but I think he genuinely thinks his own looks are so often better than anyone else's.

[Mavs2019]

They absolutely did. The results were mixed, but mostly poor IMO. I genuinely think Luka wants to assist more than get his own shot, but I think he genuinely thinks his own looks are so often better than anyone else's.

Cause that´s how teams will play him, until we get him some better teammates.

What we saw again tonight with WCS is that Porzingis is basically a luxury player in Carlisle´s offense. We don´t need his additional skills. All we need from C is a lob threat that plays defense. You can find that for anything between $4M and $20M.

The way we are set-up and with Porzingis not hitting shots, he hurts more than he helps, cause he cannot put it on the floor from the 3pt line, re-drive and create more chaos that will lead to open shots.

It would simply work better, if Luka drove inside, WCS created the lob threat, Luka kicked it out to a Lavine, who then takes the shot or drives at the defense again. Lavine+WCS = $24M, while Porzingis = $31M.

I think the Mavs didn´t want to run into another situation like Dirk, when they could never get him a 2nd superstar and that´s why they pulled the trigger on the Porzingis deal so quickly, but it might have been a poor roster construction decision, especially if they can´t find ways to develop offensive schemes that suit Doncic and Porzingis.

Otherwise we could have used the trade assets in much more productive ways.

[Kammrath]

What we saw again tonight with WCS is that Porzingis is basically a luxury player in Carlisle´s offense. We don´t need his additional skills.

Two comments:

1) It is on RC to adjust his schemes to the strengths of his best players.

2) If KP would just focus on being better at rolling to the rim I think it would open up SO much for both him and the team. 

For the life of me I do not understand why he doesn't roll more....he and Luka look REALLY good when they do that from time to time. Does RC not want KP to roll? Does KP not like it? Is KP anxious about getting hurt when rolling into traffic?

[Mavs2019]

Two comments:

1) It is on RC to adjust his schemes to the strengths of his best players.

2) If KP would just focus on being better at rolling to the rim I think it would open up SO much for both him and the team. 

For the life of me I do not understand why he doesn't roll more....he and Luka look REALLY good when they do that from time to time. Does RC not want KP to roll? Does KP not like it? Is KP anxious about getting hurt when rolling into traffic?

Yeah I wonder about that, too.

[Scott41theMavs]

I think we have to acknowledge that Luka and KP looked great the back half of the season last year. KP has some serious psychological crap going on now, and he must be a real turd to deal with socially, because his teammates don't seem to be willing to help him work through that stuff. Perhaps because too many of them are too young. I loved the supposed youth movement this offseason. Seems I was wrong. Again.

[ItsGoTime]

1) It is on RC to adjust his schemes to the strengths of his best players

This is where my thoughts keep leading me back to.

[Reunion Mav Old]

This is where my thoughts keep leading me back to.

This is probably the worst year in NBA history to have a youth movement. They have had none of the regular preparation time, they have less practice time, they have had to play important minutes that they are not ready for etc. 

It is way, way to early to get down on the youth movement. Though I am really only hopeful so far about Smith and maybe Bey, none of them have had a legitimate chance to be rotation players at this point though the minutes they have been forced to play have let them know just how far they have to go because they have gotten their butts kicked. Maybe that speeds up their development and maybe that ruins them. Time will tell. 

My big thought: One way that makes sense to have a lot of young and therefore cheap players is to be able to afford a third or maybe fourth (if we sign THJ) very high dollar player. When the money goes to the top of the roster, it would be good to have a bunch of players who  are improving, know your system and still cheap to fill out your roster.

 We go about 10 deep with legitimate candidates for rotation player right now. Maybe next year or partially at the trade deadline, we move toward only 7 deep with experienced players but two more of them are stud starters. Then Smith and the youth group are moving up to candidates for 8-10 and maybe 3 of them succeed in doing that. Some of the current top 10-11 become assets we trade up with. That player or players could be anyone but Luka.

[MrGoat]

Two comments:

1) It is on RC to adjust his schemes to the strengths of his best players.

2) If KP would just focus on being better at rolling to the rim I think it would open up SO much for both him and the team. 

For the life of me I do not understand why he doesn't roll more....he and Luka look REALLY good when they do that from time to time. Does RC not want KP to roll? Does KP not like it? Is KP anxious about getting hurt when rolling into traffic?

Considering his injury history I think you have your answer. He had a pretty slow start last season too and didn't really find his groove until around the all star break. It would be nice to actually have KP manage to make it to an offseason without having to recover from an injury in the offseason. 

And frankly. Aside from Luka and KP the talent quotient on this team is pretty damn low. Our third best player right now was a salary dump from the Knicks. Also, saying the bench is not playing as well as they did last season is a quite an understatement.

[Kammrath]

27 games into a 72 game season, the Mavs have just reached the 3/8th point of the season. Let's see how they are doing:

Record: 13-14 
(9th in the West, 15th in the NBA, 5-4 in the last 9)

Offensive Rating: 112.5 
(9th, up 7 from 1/4 point)

Defensive Rating: 114.1 
(26th, down 7 from 1/4 point)

Net Rating: -1.5 
(21st, down 5 from 1/4 point)

Pace: 17th


Offensive eFG%: 53.9% (16th)
Offensive Turnover %: 12.1% (3rd)
Offensive Rebound %: 23.2% (26th)
Offensive FT/FGA: 0.266 (10th)

Fastbreak Points: 13.3 (13th)
Points in the Paint: 45.3 (19th)

Corner 3%: 35.3% (27th)
Above Break 3%: 35.1% (21st)
MidRange: 44.6% (5th)
Paint: 45.0% (9th)
Restricted Area: 65.3% (10th)

Drives: 15.4 (8th)
Passes: 275.0 (25th)
Potential Assists: 44.5 (23rd)


Defensive eFG%: 54.7 (22th)
Defensive Turnover %: 13.6% (19th)
Defensive Rebound %: 73.1% (17th)
Defensive FT/FGA: 0.280 (26th)

Opp Fastbreak Points: 14.1 (25th)
Opp Points in the Paint: 44.9 (9th)


Deflections: 13.3 (24th)
Loose Balls Recovered: 5.4 (29th)
Charges Drawn: 0.59 (13th)
Contested Shots: 52.5 (21st)
Box Outs: 9.6 (23rd)


On/Off (more than 200 minutes on court):

WCS: +13.9
Luka: +9.2
Maxi: +4.8
DP:+4.0
DFS: +1.9
JB: +0.2
JG: -0.5
THJ: -0.6
JR: -3.4
TB: -3.9
KP: -6.0
JJ: -6.5
WI: -8.8

[ItsGoTime]

27 games into a 72 game season, the Mavs have just reached the 3/8th point of the season. Let's see how they are doing:

Record: 13-14 
(9th in the West, 15th in the NBA, 5-4 in the last 9)

Offensive Rating: 112.5 
(9th, up 7 from 1/4 point)

Defensive Rating: 114.1 
(26th, down 7 from 1/4 point)

Net Rating: -1.5 
(21st, down 5 from 1/4 point)

Pace: 17th


Offensive eFG%: 53.9% (16th)
Offensive Turnover %: 12.1% (3rd)
Offensive Rebound %: 23.2% (26th)
Offensive FT/FGA: 0.266 (10th)

Fastbreak Points: 13.3 (13th)
Points in the Paint: 45.3 (19th)

Corner 3%: 35.3% (27th)
Above Break 3%: 35.1% (21st)
MidRange: 44.6% (5th)
Paint: 45.0% (9th)
Restricted Area: 65.3% (10th)

Drives: 15.4 (8th)
Passes: 275.0 (25th)
Potential Assists: 44.5 (23rd)


Defensive eFG%: 54.7 (22th)
Defensive Turnover %: 13.6% (19th)
Defensive Rebound %: 73.1% (17th)
Defensive FT/FGA: 0.280 (26th)

Opp Fastbreak Points: 14.1 (25th)
Opp Points in the Paint: 44.9 (9th)


Deflections: 13.3 (24th)
Loose Balls Recovered: 5.4 (29th)
Charges Drawn: 0.59 (13th)
Contested Shots: 52.5 (21st)
Box Outs: 9.6 (23rd)


On/Off (more than 200 minutes on court):

WCS: +13.9
Luka: +9.2
Maxi: +4.8
DP:+4.0
DFS: +1.9
JB: +0.2
JG: -0.5
THJ: -0.6
JR: -3.4
TB: -3.9
KP: -6.0
JJ: -6.5
WI: -8.8

Wow, I hadn't thought about it at all, but 27 games out of 72, we're not even at the half way mark, and if the worst is behind us, this thing can easily turn itself around. Especially considering we've probably had the worst our season SHOULD give us. There will still be injuries on this team, but all teams will have to deal with that, as well as COVID. Unless KP or Luka gets COVID, or we have some serious injuries to the core, this ship can be righted and we could still be where we want to be for playoff positioning.


In all honesty, this is the point, in a normal 82 game season, where I would start evaluating the offseason acquisitions because there is finally a decent enough sample size to merit a few opinions. I'm gonna give them to the half way mark to do that this year based on the season they've had thus far. Nine more games for me.

[Scott41theMavs]

IGT, it seemed like you weren't posting for a while. Glad to see you hard at work here again. You're one of the most reasonable posters here and have great things to contribute.

[Mavs2021]

27 games into a 72 game season, the Mavs have just reached the 3/8th point of the season. Let's see how they are doing:

Record: 13-14 
(9th in the West, 15th in the NBA, 5-4 in the last 9)

Offensive Rating: 112.5 
(9th, up 7 from 1/4 point)

Defensive Rating: 114.1 
(26th, down 7 from 1/4 point)

Net Rating: -1.5 
(21st, down 5 from 1/4 point)

Pace: 17th


Offensive eFG%: 53.9% (16th)
Offensive Turnover %: 12.1% (3rd)
Offensive Rebound %: 23.2% (26th)
Offensive FT/FGA: 0.266 (10th)

Fastbreak Points: 13.3 (13th)
Points in the Paint: 45.3 (19th)

Corner 3%: 35.3% (27th)
Above Break 3%: 35.1% (21st)
MidRange: 44.6% (5th)
Paint: 45.0% (9th)
Restricted Area: 65.3% (10th)

Drives: 15.4 (8th)
Passes: 275.0 (25th)
Potential Assists: 44.5 (23rd)


Defensive eFG%: 54.7 (22th)
Defensive Turnover %: 13.6% (19th)
Defensive Rebound %: 73.1% (17th)
Defensive FT/FGA: 0.280 (26th)

Opp Fastbreak Points: 14.1 (25th)
Opp Points in the Paint: 44.9 (9th)


Deflections: 13.3 (24th)
Loose Balls Recovered: 5.4 (29th)
Charges Drawn: 0.59 (13th)
Contested Shots: 52.5 (21st)
Box Outs: 9.6 (23rd)


On/Off (more than 200 minutes on court):

WCS: +13.9
Luka: +9.2
Maxi: +4.8
DP:+4.0
DFS: +1.9
JB: +0.2
JG: -0.5
THJ: -0.6
JR: -3.4
TB: -3.9
KP: -6.0
JJ: -6.5
WI: -8.8

Ignoring that Richardson/KP have been major disappointments, the numbers of Green and Iwundu show exactly where the problem is with Carlisle. Why was Green the first casualty of Carlisle´s "anger issues" and not Iwundu. Better yet why is a rookie not playing at all, when he is a net neutral already? I heard these young players are supposed to get better with minutes.

[KillerLeft]

Why was Green the first casualty of Carlisle´s "anger issues" and not Iwundu.

I guess I don't understand why on earth it makes sense to use the phrase "anger issues" in the question above. 

He has a reason for not playing the kid right now, but I don't see any evidence that it's based on anything remotely connected to anger, punishment, a dog house, or anything like that. 

Even the relatively good on/off is very likely due to Carlisle's choice only to play him in the absolute most friendly of circumstances possible, at least in part. I'll never understand how fans think they have the right of these situations without a modicum of information about what's really going on with the team.

[dirkfansince1998]

Agree with @"KillerLeft". This is not about the dog house,  fabricated anger issues or a coach hating rookies.
The Mavs struggled and RC did what 99% of coaches would do in a similar situation. He shortened the rotation. Right now the Mavs are playing the typical 8-9 man rotation we usually see in the playoffs.

Doncic/Richardson/DFS/Maxi/KP with Brunson/THJ/WCS (or Powell) from the bench. Sometimes Burke gets a few minutes in the 2nd quarter.
Starting five. Best backup guard, wing and big. That´s it.

[Kammrath]

Through Feb 25....

[bodhisattva]

So I had a good look at schedule as we all did...

Next 4 are easy and than a 5 game hard stretch. Nine games by 22.3.. So we are at 40 games played and hovering around 50%.
In next 32 games we only face Lakers 2x, Jazz 1x and all the best from the east (that includes Celtics and Heat) once. Other than that we only play Warriors and Spurs once, everybody else are scrubs. And we play Cavs and the likes twice!
I think in worst case scenario we lose 10 out of remaining 32 games after 22. march. That puts Mavs at 40-32 ratio, maybe better. Should be enough for 4,5,6 spot. Given everything finally goes right and no viruses and injuries.

What you guys think? Will between 44-28 and 40-32 ratio be enough for 6th spot or higher?

[KillerLeft]

What you guys think? Will between 44-28 and 40-32 ratio be enough for 6th spot or higher?

I think that if there has ever been a season in which it's impossible to predict the final record, it's this one.

[bodhisattva]

I think that if there has ever been a season in which it's impossible to predict the final record, it's this one.

True. But given how it´s going I think Is´s a fair shot. We should be around 42-30 +/- 2 when regular season is done in my opinion. Question is if it going to be enough for 6th or higher.

Again, barring Covid or injuries. Even if we would somehow trade KP (which i don´t believe will happen) i think we still get there. Schedule is just that easy in the final third. I was pleasantly surprised. I know things change and Pelicans might be a force in second part but as it stands, everything looks pretty similar to last year.

[omahen]

What you guys think? Will between 44-28 and 40-32 ratio be enough for 6th spot or higher?

Mavs are 7-3 in last 10. However, all in front of us maintained winning record of at least 6-4 (not counting Lakers, but I don't believe they are reachable). Problem is bottom of the West basically stopped providing any help. Minny is 1-9, Houston is 0-10, Sacramento is 1-9 in their last 10. A clear separation has happened between bottom 5 and top 10. If Nuggets and GSW continue with 6-4 score, they will be around 42 wins in the end. If Mavs can keep that 7-3 ratio for the rest of the season, I think top 6 should not be a problem. If they are worse, it might be. So I am more of a 44-28 guy.