07-03-2021, 08:48 AM
(07-03-2021, 03:28 AM)cow Wrote: THT is an upside play. He handles well, has shown playmaking and defensive flashes, and uses his big frame to absorb contact and finish around the rim. I think he'll easily eclipse what he'd garner in a S&T. I don't think he popped as much as some were expecting in his sophomore campaign. I used to think it would take 15+ a year to pry him from the Lakers, but I'm starting to think that number might be in the 12-13 range. Still a hefty price tag for someone you are betting will develop. He's still only 20. 6'4" with a 7'1" wingspan.
A few interesting data points since we last had a THT day around here.
1. If you believe FG that JRich will opt in and Dallas will retain Willie, then we have almost the exact amount of cap room left to max out Talen. If that is how it goes down, we are essentially swapping THJ for THT. We often hear how easy it would be to dump this contract or that by paying a second or some such, but none of us really know that for sure. One thing about the threat to sign THT to a $20mm offer is you might be able to talk LA into taking back JRich rather than matching the offer. My first reaction to that is why would they do that when they wouldn't include THT in a Lowry deal. Of course, they didn't have an $80 million gun to their head and both of their stars were healthy at the time. How about JRich and JB and you pay THT something more in the range of the $12mm-$13mm you mentioned? JRich and Willie? LA has Drummond as a FA and Harrell with a PO.
2. Paying him even at the MLE level is a projection and Dallas would have been completely reliant on their pro-scouting department. Not any more. We now have a head coach who knows him well.
3. We are on record as prioritizing a "shot creator", which we interpret as someone who can get shots for themselves and others. DeRozan and Dinwiddie are probably the best direct comparisons here since neither is a 3 point threat.
THT gets 5 assists per 36 and is unassisted on 65% of his two point attempts. He's .522 on two pointers and .639 within 3 feet.
DDR gets 7.4 assists per 36 and is unassisted on 75% of his two point attempts. He's .515 on two pointers and .636 within 3 feet.
SD gets 7.8 assists per 36 (19-20) and is unassisted on 83% of his two point attempts. He's .485 on twos and .636 within 3 feet.
Of course, THT is already a much better and more versatile perimeter defender than either of those guys. His outside shot is a work in progress whereas it is pretty firmly established with the other two. And, of course, there is the age thing.
There are also things working against this. If he doesn't develop an outside shot, is this just another Wright/JRich swing with better force both defensively and at the rim? If you do go the offer sheet route, you've bet your entire summer on this one thing. What is Plan B if LA matches? You are dealing with Rich Paul here. Why would he help the Mav's to the detriment of the King? I'm still with Cow conceptually, but if I'm doing this, I want it to be a trade as soon as free agency opens. But, therein lies another issue. If this is a trade, then it opens the door to 28 other teams, some of whom can come up with a better packages. I see the upside and the fit on the court. Making this work as a transaction is more problematic.