2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

 
From my vantage point, everything points to DeRozan.  He is a big name respected "star".  He is unlikely to stay on his current team.  He does not have any huge rumors going somewhere else.  He is young enough that production may not drop off for a couple of years (especially given his style of play).  He fits Cuban's recent statements as someone that can provide Luka "help".  He has ties to Nico.  He gives the Mavs their three "stars" with Luka/DeRozan/KP.  

The real question to me is if we bring in DeRozan, how do we do it?  Do we simply sign him straight up?  In that case THJ is gone (which is probably less of a concern to the new regime).  You would have roughly the MLE in cap to spend on a desperately needed 3&D guy (maybe Green?).  Another option would be to S&T for a package that the Spurs would prefer to cap space.  Maybe JRich/Powell/Brunson?  Powell and Brunson are other guys the new regime might be more willing to let go (they also seem like Spurs kind of guys).  That trade allows you to keep THJ and spend the MLE, or have roughly 22 mil in cap space.

Another possibility is if they feel they need to move on from KP, an S&T for DeRozan could make a lot of sense.  At that point they have the cap to go get Holmes and maybe Norman Powell (who would be perfect as the floor spacing point of attack defender and might be ready to get out of the shit show in Portland).

I'm actually not a fan of DeRozan the player or the fit with Luka, but I am resigned to this being by far the most likely off season move.  I don't think that team can truly contend due to lack of defense, but they are probably more likely to advance in playoffs, and potentially more attractive to other players in the future.

I really liked this post.  I've kind of blown off the "KP for space" or "KP for S&T FA" deals preferring to look for teams that need KP and have assets we might want.  Why would I trade KP for DeRozan when I can just sign DeRozan?  But, there is a new sheriff in town and who knows what they might do with space. We also don't know what system we are going to run offensively.

In most deals where we trade KP without getting back a center, the automatic go-to is Holmes.  I'm a fan.  But he's $14-$18mm.  If we are dealing with SA, why not just take back Poeltl for about half of that.  Other than that little floater Holmes has, they are very similar.  Good and bad at almost exactly the same things.  Poeltl has the 37th highest DWS and 23rd highest DBPM in the league.  The Austrian native grades out as a slightly better interior defender than Holmes and turns 26 at the start of next season.  In 1,215 minutes where Poeltl and DD played together, SA had O/D ratings of 113.4/112.1 for a net of 1.3.  Their most used lineup that included JP/DD with Murray, White and Johnson was 117.9/111.9 for a net of 6.0.  In fact, as long as you kept JP/DD on the floor with any two of those guys, things went well.  So, there is an offensive scheme that works just fine with two non 3 point shooters and it isn't like Murray, White and Johnson are offensive juggernauts or even good floor spreaders themselves.

For $8.75mm you basically have your version of Zubac.  Any serious contender is going to need a guy like that to handle Ayton, Valenciunas, Towns, Embiid, Nurkic, Adams and Jokic.  You don't need that kind of big body interior presence every night, but when you do...you really do.  SA would presumably start KP at C, moving Poeltl to the bench.  The relationship with SA was already strained a bit as they played hardball with him when he was restricted last summer.  BTW, KP doesn't necessarily have to land in SA.  We are a viable threat to sign DeRozan outright.  Once mutual interest between Dallas and DeRozan is established, we work from there.  Maybe it is KP to SA.  Maybe it is KP to any of the half dozen other teams we've discussed and the assets we get from GS or Washington or Charlotte end up in SA.  It doesn't have to be equal value.  It just has to be good enough to motivate the Spurs to send Poeltl in the deal with S&T DeRozan.

I'm thinking you just keep DD at about his current $27.7mm salary.  Poeltl is $8.75mm and you sent out KP (and maybe WCS as injury insurance?).  If you do the latter, there is $30.5mm worth of space without JRich and $19.9mm with JRich.  You have Luka, DeRozan, Poeltl and DFS starting at this point with all sorts of options to add one more starter at any position other than C (plus some high level bench help).  You can throw the full max at Collins.  You can split the $30mm between Markannen and Danny Green (you need shooters at PF, does the defense of Poeltl make Markkanen more acceptable?).  You can play DFS/DeRozan at PF and focus on wings like THJ (probably not enough D) or Ball or N. Powell or Trent Jr. or Fournier or Graham.  You'd then use the rest of the money to finish out your Powell/Maxi/Green/Brunson bench.  I've not even started to contemplate S&T opportunities with THJ or JRich.  I'm not a fan of the deals where we send off half of our team.  This is relatively simple...KP and WCS and then make a decision about working over or under the cap depending on what you do with THJ.  You are turning KP into two starters and still have max money for Collins or plenty of money to add two players instead of the one near-max guy.