06-29-2021, 03:31 AM
I want to spend a little time talking about freeing up picks for superstar trades. I think it is fairly well known that we can't trade our 2022 or 2024 picks because we don't have one in 23. And in fact, we can't currently trade 2025 or 2026 because there is a chance that the protected 2023 pick we sent to NY could convey in either 24 or 25 if it doesn't convey in 23. So, the earliest we can currently trade a pick is 2027 since we have to have a 2026 pick until we are assured of having a 2025 pick.
Some of this can be fixed by dealing with NY. We can simply seek their permission to lift the protections on 2023. That would allow us to now trade 2025 and 2027 because we now know we will have a 2024 pick. The last time this happened, Milwaukee had to give up a second rounder to lift the protections on a pick they owed Cleveland so the Bucks could have clean picks to send to NO in the Holiday trade. If Dallas did something similar, they would still be without a 2023 pick (and NY would now have an unprotected pick).
If we are really going to go for a top star, we probably need to send out three picks. That would require that we cleaned up the protections on the 23 pick we sent to NY AND that we ALSO acquire a 2023 pick. Dealing with NY in some form or fashion is necessary as we have to clean up the 23 protection to trade 24. NY has some leverage here. It has been proposed that we deal Brunson for our old pick back. But, NY knows the game and they know we have to clean up the protections AND acquire a pick. If I'm NY, I probably require the protection be lifted and then give up the "worst of" the Dallas 2023 and their own 2023. There is a chance the Dallas pick is the #1 overall and their own pick is high teens/low twenties by then. Sending out the "worst of" means they still have a shot at a low lottery pick in 23 (ours) and are likely paying a first in the late teens/early 20's if you assume NY grows from its current status as a playoff team. Yes, they could simply give us our 2023 pick back, but why would they for a backup PG who is totally free a year from now.
If NY (or Dallas) doesn't want to do such a deal, then we are back to paying a second to eliminate protection on our own 2023 and shopping for a 2023 from another team in order to be able to swap 22, 24 and 26 for a superstar. Here is the list of teams with unprotected picks in 2023:
Atlanta
Boston
Brooklyn (Swap with Houston)
Charlotte
Cleveland
Golden State
Houston (Swap with Brooklyn)***
Indiana
LAC (Swap with OKC)
LAL (Swap with NO)
Memphis*
Minnesota
NO (Swap with LAL)
NYK*
OKC (Swap with LAL)***
Orlando*
Philly
Portland
SAC
SA
TOR
Getting a fully unprotected pick is uncommon. The pick swaps offered by Brooklyn, LAL and LAC are kind of like lightly protected picks. At least Brooklyn, LAL and LAC know they aren't giving up the top overall pick (because if they were, HOU, NO and OKC would swap for it). These might be easier to trade to us, but they wouldn't count as protections because we'd be assured of getting some pick in 2023.
In addition, I placed an * by teams that have a shot at multiple picks including HOU (own +3), Memphis, NY, OKC (own +3) and Orlando. All of these extra picks have protection except the Milwaukee pick owed to HOU. Dallas just needs to be assured of a pick in 23 in order to be able to trade 22, 24 and 26 after the 21 draft is completed (and after protections are lifted on their own 2023). It could be the "worst of" here also for teams to avoid giving up a totally unprotected pick. So, OKC could trade us it's own pick and hedge that by saying the pick becomes that of PHX, DEN or MIA if any are conveyed that year and worse than OKC's own pick. It is still a little risky for OKC. You can imagine a scenario where the OKC pick is early lottery and the other three picks don't convey. The Phoenix pick is likely to convey in 22, but does anyone believe Miami AND Denver will be lottery teams in 23? Houston would be in a better position to do this as they know the Milwaukee pick will convey. So, they could do a "worst of" from among their own, Milwaukee's unprotected or the Detroit or Washington firsts if they convey. What would Houston want from us? My guess would be to move on from Eric Gordon. JRich and a youngster for Gordon and the worst of all of their 2023 first rounders?
Finally, the team we are trading with could send us their 2023 pick in order to take back our picks in 22, 24 and 26. The rule says we can't be without two consecutive "future" picks at the conclusion of the deal. So, say we are pursuing a star on Portland's team. Since they have their own clean 2023, it could be swapped for the three Dallas picks if it is unprotected. That is just a net of two picks, not three. So, maybe Dallas comes up with a 2021 pick from somewhere as part of the KP deal. They can then swap 21 (from another team) and their own 22, 24 and 26 for said star and Portland's 23 (assuming we already lifted the protections on the pick we owe NY). There is an issue here in that Portland would have to give up an unprotected pick in the middle of what is likely to be a rebuilding phase. Not ideal and therefore not likely.
Sorry for re-writing War and Peace. A true superstar is going to be expensive and anything we do to acquire picks and clean up our deal with NY is going to be complex and expensive. But, there are paths to get there. Probably the easiest to imagine involves trading our second in 2022 to NY to lift the protections and then dealing with Houston (JRich/Hinton for Gordon and their worst 2023). Do that and we now have two years of Gordon and the ability to trade KP (or the assets we get for KP) plus our 22, 24 and 26 first round picks.
Some of this can be fixed by dealing with NY. We can simply seek their permission to lift the protections on 2023. That would allow us to now trade 2025 and 2027 because we now know we will have a 2024 pick. The last time this happened, Milwaukee had to give up a second rounder to lift the protections on a pick they owed Cleveland so the Bucks could have clean picks to send to NO in the Holiday trade. If Dallas did something similar, they would still be without a 2023 pick (and NY would now have an unprotected pick).
If we are really going to go for a top star, we probably need to send out three picks. That would require that we cleaned up the protections on the 23 pick we sent to NY AND that we ALSO acquire a 2023 pick. Dealing with NY in some form or fashion is necessary as we have to clean up the 23 protection to trade 24. NY has some leverage here. It has been proposed that we deal Brunson for our old pick back. But, NY knows the game and they know we have to clean up the protections AND acquire a pick. If I'm NY, I probably require the protection be lifted and then give up the "worst of" the Dallas 2023 and their own 2023. There is a chance the Dallas pick is the #1 overall and their own pick is high teens/low twenties by then. Sending out the "worst of" means they still have a shot at a low lottery pick in 23 (ours) and are likely paying a first in the late teens/early 20's if you assume NY grows from its current status as a playoff team. Yes, they could simply give us our 2023 pick back, but why would they for a backup PG who is totally free a year from now.
If NY (or Dallas) doesn't want to do such a deal, then we are back to paying a second to eliminate protection on our own 2023 and shopping for a 2023 from another team in order to be able to swap 22, 24 and 26 for a superstar. Here is the list of teams with unprotected picks in 2023:
Atlanta
Boston
Brooklyn (Swap with Houston)
Charlotte
Cleveland
Golden State
Houston (Swap with Brooklyn)***
Indiana
LAC (Swap with OKC)
LAL (Swap with NO)
Memphis*
Minnesota
NO (Swap with LAL)
NYK*
OKC (Swap with LAL)***
Orlando*
Philly
Portland
SAC
SA
TOR
Getting a fully unprotected pick is uncommon. The pick swaps offered by Brooklyn, LAL and LAC are kind of like lightly protected picks. At least Brooklyn, LAL and LAC know they aren't giving up the top overall pick (because if they were, HOU, NO and OKC would swap for it). These might be easier to trade to us, but they wouldn't count as protections because we'd be assured of getting some pick in 2023.
In addition, I placed an * by teams that have a shot at multiple picks including HOU (own +3), Memphis, NY, OKC (own +3) and Orlando. All of these extra picks have protection except the Milwaukee pick owed to HOU. Dallas just needs to be assured of a pick in 23 in order to be able to trade 22, 24 and 26 after the 21 draft is completed (and after protections are lifted on their own 2023). It could be the "worst of" here also for teams to avoid giving up a totally unprotected pick. So, OKC could trade us it's own pick and hedge that by saying the pick becomes that of PHX, DEN or MIA if any are conveyed that year and worse than OKC's own pick. It is still a little risky for OKC. You can imagine a scenario where the OKC pick is early lottery and the other three picks don't convey. The Phoenix pick is likely to convey in 22, but does anyone believe Miami AND Denver will be lottery teams in 23? Houston would be in a better position to do this as they know the Milwaukee pick will convey. So, they could do a "worst of" from among their own, Milwaukee's unprotected or the Detroit or Washington firsts if they convey. What would Houston want from us? My guess would be to move on from Eric Gordon. JRich and a youngster for Gordon and the worst of all of their 2023 first rounders?
Finally, the team we are trading with could send us their 2023 pick in order to take back our picks in 22, 24 and 26. The rule says we can't be without two consecutive "future" picks at the conclusion of the deal. So, say we are pursuing a star on Portland's team. Since they have their own clean 2023, it could be swapped for the three Dallas picks if it is unprotected. That is just a net of two picks, not three. So, maybe Dallas comes up with a 2021 pick from somewhere as part of the KP deal. They can then swap 21 (from another team) and their own 22, 24 and 26 for said star and Portland's 23 (assuming we already lifted the protections on the pick we owe NY). There is an issue here in that Portland would have to give up an unprotected pick in the middle of what is likely to be a rebuilding phase. Not ideal and therefore not likely.
Sorry for re-writing War and Peace. A true superstar is going to be expensive and anything we do to acquire picks and clean up our deal with NY is going to be complex and expensive. But, there are paths to get there. Probably the easiest to imagine involves trading our second in 2022 to NY to lift the protections and then dealing with Houston (JRich/Hinton for Gordon and their worst 2023). Do that and we now have two years of Gordon and the ability to trade KP (or the assets we get for KP) plus our 22, 24 and 26 first round picks.