2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[mvossman]

I'm not sure I'd consider $14.2mm "a lot of love" for Graham.  The ProFitX website places his value at about $10 million.  I think I was pretty clear to say there is a range of numbers that will trade match JRich and satisfy BYC.  In a world where all possibilities are on the table, there are certainly guys you'd rather have.  But, that isn't the world we live in.  We are NOT likely to have cap room.  THJ is coming back.  JRich very well could opt-in.  So, unless KP is traded, we are dealing with the MLE and trades...period.  Oh, and we really don't have any assets to send out in deals.  What we are really looking for is teams that are in a pinch that might believe JRich or WCS to be "better than nothing".  

I guess you could apply the Bob Myers quote to anyone you don't happen to like.  Lonzo's profile from three is very similar to (Graham's).  He's in the 57th (52nd) percentile on Pull Up 3's, the 69th (81st) percentile on Corner 3's and 78th (86th) percentile on C&S 3's.  Neither player gets many open looks.  How does Bob Myers apply to one and not the other.  BTW, on a team with Luka and in the role either would play here...Advantage Graham.

Graham has led his team two years in a row in Simple Rating (82games.com).  Charlotte was 5.4 points better defensively when he was on the floor (NO is 1.6 points worse defensively when Lonzo is on the floor).  Graham was a team leading +7.5 in total On - Off (+8.0 the year before).  He's the 6th best PG in the league in total RPM and 7th best at D-RPM (Lonzo is 3rd and 11th).  There is something odd in Graham's counting stats because a lot of the compilation stats (LEBRON, RAPTOR and BPM) aren't kind to him defensively.  But, those stats love him offensively (90th percentile plus on average).  I'm not sure how to handicap the two guys defensively.  Both spend a high percentage of their time guarding the point of attack.  Just what we need.  Ball has better counting stats and Graham appears to have better on-court impact.  Still, I probably take the taller more switchable guy.

Neither Graham nor Lonzo get to the rim very often or very effectively.  But Graham has a 90th percentile assist rate on drives and is in the 95th percentile in Isolation PPP.  Ball is in the 66th percentile in Drive Assist Rate and the 5th percentile in PPP in Isolation.  Again, on the Mav's we are talking about a "secondary" playmaker.  Off the ball, but when things break down we need you to hit an open three or create something for yourself of for your teammates.  Graham crushes Ball on both counts and is better than Ball at Corner 3's.

We have tried two guys who can't hit 3's or won't take them in this spot the last two years and neither has panned out.  Graham isn't shy and is used to playing with another guard who can create and his on-court data says it worked.  Lonzo was so good at running his team that NO turned to Point-Zion late in the season.  One guy costs $20 million and is basically unattainable.  The other costs something between $10mm and $14mm and plays for a team that just drafted a potential superstar at the same position.

They are surprisingly similar players.  The biggest difference is size.  Ball has more defensive versatility as he can handle wings as well as guards.  I am concerned with Graham might be a poor matchup in some situations due to his size.  If he can hold his own against the point of attack from bigger guards, then he makes a lot of sense as the Wright/JRich replacement.  

The other difference is the nature of their play-making abilities.  Graham is a more traditional point guard who would excel running the second unit.  Ball is a great passer and has high IQ.  He is not a guy running P&R but he is a guy that can take the lead in transition (taking some responsibility off Luka) as well as make quick decisions to take advantage of 4 on 3 when Luka gets doubled.

For me the most important role is a guy who fits well with Luka on the starting unit and Ball seems perfect in that role.  He brings spacing, volume scoring and BB IQ to the starting unit, while being able to cover for Luka to some degree on the defensive end.  Is he unattainable?  If he has his heart set on Chicago then probably so.  If he is interested in playing with Luka, then not sure why we couldn't get him.  Worst case we send Brunson in a S&T (although I like the Ball/Brunson combo in the second unit where Brunson is basically the mini Luka).

But if we can't get Ball, then Graham is somebody to consider.  He makes more sense to run the second unit.  His value really hinges on whether he is an asset or a liability defensively with the starters.  He is kind of an awkward fit with Brunson.  I would be willing to trade Brunson away to get Ball if I had to, but not for Graham unless I was sure he was a plus defender against the point of attack.