05-15-2021, 09:37 AM
(05-14-2021, 12:15 PM)mvossman Wrote: Ha! The tables are turned as you are warning me about context regarding lineup data (something I think I have done to you in the past). And your right, the data is limited with THJ and the starters and what I did provide was not a very big sample (its hard to get any decent sample this year with injuries and the Covid stuff).
My stance is that you have to have a good defense to be a legit contender (offense is probably even more important but a good defense is necessary as well). I do think that has to start with the interior, which is why I am concerned about KP's drop off this year and would be willing to consider Holmes even with the inefficient use of resources. But I also think you can't have two guys on the perimeter that need to be hidden. DFS can cover for Luka, but he can't cover for a second bad perimeter defender. I think a poor defensive lineup with a good net is not going to be good enough to get it done.
I know...good times, right?
I like your line about considering Homes "even with the inefficient use of resources". Such a move is probably predicated on the idea that KP is your PF sharing the position with Maxi and five-out is more of a gimmick lineup than the main thing. In reality, KP is the PF on O and the C on D in such a lineup and you'd hide him on the weakest offensive threat in the other team's front court. Holmes and presumably Powell (against backups) have to be good enough at perimeter and team D to make this work. The alternative is to find a Maxi clone or larger version of DFS and keep KP at center. That has proven more difficult. It is much easier to come up with good D rim runners than 3 and D PF's. So, let's say you lock in Holmes/DP and KP/Maxi at C/PF and assume they bring in a 5th big using some other resource. It requires going under the cap as there won't be a S&T for Holmes over the cap. In other words, one of JRich or THJ is gone.
So, yesterday, we explored a world without JRich. Some (many) don't like using his space for a Center. If you do, you are probably starting either THJ or Green or some guy you got for the rMLE at the off guard spot. Not ideal. You can do the same exercise with the assumption JRich stays at his opt-in price and THJ goes. Now you have $23mm to work with. But if you use most of that on Holmes (say $14mm), you are starting JRich, Green or some guy you got for the equivalent to the full MLE...about $9mm. Not super inspiring.
That takes us back to moving on from both guys. Graham came up yesterday, so I want to think through a Holmes/Graham summer for a moment. I'm not sure Charlotte needs four high priced guards in Rozier, Graham, Monk and Ball. If Monk gets MLE money and Graham gets into the teens, I think that is worse than paying Maxi $8mm to be our fourth big. There is probably some price at which Charlotte says uncle and doesn't match. They can run Ball/Rozier/Monk as their 3 guard rotation. BTW, is cost controlled Willie better for a year than bringing back Bismark on a multi-year?.
Some pros/cons on Graham.
1. I think his playmaking and 3 point shooting would unlock KP's O at PF. The rim runner gets most of the action with Luka and the bulk of KP's opportunity when the starters are in come from secondary action with JRich or THJ. Put Graham in that spot and the O is simply unstoppable. The team can flip a switch from Luka/Holmes action to Graham/KP action and 39% DFS is standing in the corner. Who do you leave?
2. Replacing JRich and THJ with just Graham provides a good bench role for Green next year (probably as the DFS backup as a wing-defender). You'd have two of your creators (Luka, Brunson and Graham) on the floor at all times with one of your wing defenders, one of your rim runners and either KP or Maxi. Super consistent and easy to mix/match.
3. Is Graham really a good defender? I see what the on/off and RPM numbers show. Charlotte's D is good when Graham is in. But the other PG's influence that and the D is bad when Rozier or Ball play PG. Do lineups work with Graham because he's good at D or because he isn't Rozier or Ball? If you dig into the lineup data with Charlotte, something odd is happening. Graham or Monk lineups kill it and Ball or Rozier lineups get killed. If you look at other defensive measures, Graham's D is less compelling. He's average at the various acronym defensive measures (LEBRON, RAPTOR ect.). BBIndex shows that Charlotte asks a lot of Graham in terms of the matchups they stick him with. I just don't know. The obvious worry is playing him and Brunson together in a 3 guard rotation when Luka sits.
4. Graham and Brunson are both represented by CAA. Agents don't typically place a client on a new team at the same position as another client...especially a year before their contract is up. It is a good way to get fired by Brunson. Graham would pinch Brunson's opportunities. Seeing Brunson in the closing lineup would be a thing of the past. I'm not saying it can't happen, but you'd have to have a good understanding with Jalen of what he can expect in a year and it would probably need to be sixth man of the year type money.
Holmes/Graham would be a good summer in my book. Graham is 3.86 in RPM and he'd be replacing minutes currently going to JRich -0.83 or THJ 0.16. That is huge. Holmes is 0.98 at RPM, but 2.26 at D-RPM. Willie, Boban and Powell are all negative at RPM (though I suspect post all-star Powell is doing fine. He was a positive in 19/20 and 18/19 at 0.53 and 0.65. I think you'd want to keep Melli (or someone like him) for when KP sits. If you could get Charlotte to take back Willie and Terry or Willie and Burke in a S&T for Graham and sign Holmes with cap room, you might have north of the rMLE to offer a 5th big (Theis) instead of keeping Melli.
Holmes/DP/Theis
KP/Maxi/Theis
DFS/Green
Graham/Brunson
Luka/Brunson