2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[Mavs2021]

From Bulls Confidential.  Many other sources have written this story:

I want to give Eric Pincus credit here first, as he brought up this point that I missed until he mentioned it. There is a slight issue when it comes to extending Zach LaVine. Because LaVine only makes $19.5 million in his last season, there is a limit to what the Bulls can extend him to.

When you extend a player, the first year in that extension can NOT be more than 120 percent of the player’s previous salary. With LaVine only making $19.5 mil, the 1st year of his extension can not be over $23.4 million. And in an extension, the salary can only go up eight percent of the first year’s salary. Eight percent of $23.4 mil is $1,872,000.

So at most the Bulls can extend LaVine to the following amount the next four years:

2022/23: $23,400,000
2023/24: $25,272,000
2024/25: $27,144,000
2025/26: $29,016,000

That is a four year, $104.8 million extension. With the 2021/22 season included, that is a five year, $124.3 million contract. That is the absolute most money the Bulls can extend LaVine for at this time. That unfortunately is below LaVine’s max.

This is LaVine at his max amount in each of those seasons:

2022/23: $34,735,800
2023/24: $37,514,664
2024/25: $40,293,528
2025/26: $43,072,392

That’s $189.3 million over four years. That’s at least an $80 million dollar difference from what the Bulls can extend him at. For the Bulls to be able to offer LaVine his max, they need to let him hit unrestricted free agency. Then they can use his Bird rights, and sign him up to his max contract value.

The risk with this move is LaVine as an unrestricted free agent can sign with anyone. He doesn’t even have to talk to the Bulls ever again. He could just leave, and the Bulls could do nothing. Which is why teams usually try to get an extension done. But as I mentioned the Bulls are limited because LaVine has out performed his contract, and they can only offer him his max with him becoming a free agent. Well actually, there is a one way: The renegotiate and extend.

In the NBA you can renegotiate(to increase salary, never decrease) a player’s contract under the following conditions:

• Contract is at least four seasons or more.
  
  
• It has been at least three years since they signed the current contract
  
  
• The team must have the same amount of cap space in salary they want to increase
  

LaVine meets the first two requirements, and the Bulls have the ability to open significant cap space this off-season. If the Bulls want to have the ability to offer LaVine a max extension, they will need to renegotiate his 2021/22 salary of $19,500,000 to a much higher amount.

The Bulls can save $14.2 mil in cap space, and use that cap space to renegotiate LaVine to his max contract for the 2021/22 season. You would raise his salary from $19.5mil to 33.7mil. Then in the very same instance extend his contract the next 4 seasons at his max. Essentially, the Bulls will be extending LaVine to five years, $189 million, and it will start next season(2021/22) with his newly renegotiated salary of $33.7million.

That is exactly what the person in the BR article wrote. They need to raise Lavine´s 2021/2022 salary from 19.5M to 33.7M, which means....

Lavine 33.7
Vucevic 26.0
Young 14.2 [6.0 buyout]
Aminu 10.2
Satoransky 10.0 [5.0 buyout]
Williams 7.5
White 5.9
Brown 5.2
Arcidiacono 3.0
========
$115.7M (so with just nine players this max extension is already not cap legal)

So they can buyout Young and Satoransky....

Lavine 33.7
Vucevic 26.0
Young/Satoransky buyouts 11.0
Aminu 10.2
Williams 7.5
White 5.9
Brown 5.2
Arcidiacono 3.0
=============
$91.5M for seven players

Meaning they have $24.5M left for six roster spots.

So the BR-article is spot on. Okay they can theoretically keep Markkanen´s $17M caphold and sign four minimum players with the rest.

That´s assuming the notoriously cheap Bulls owner, who refused to re-negotiate Scottie Pippen´s contract and give Butler the super-max, will 

1.) agree to give Lavine the super-max and an extra $14M above his current salary next year
2.) pay Thad Young and Tomas Satoransky $11M to play for other teams.

All in all this strongly points to Lavine getting traded this summer or he is headed to FA next summer.

The wildcard is obviously the All-NBA selection, but with the Wizards rise and the Bulls fall, that 6th spot is nailed on for Beal.