05-05-2021, 09:05 AM
(05-05-2021, 06:55 AM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: A couple of thoughts...
Powell has started 8 of the last 9 games and had 28 minutes in the one he didn't start (last night). While we don't know who will sit when (if) KP returns, Powell just continues to improve. When he's in the game, the offense has been incredibly efficient these last 10 or so games. But, his personal box score stats (especially scoring and rebounding) have been highly volatile. Same with his +/- numbers. Maxi/KP lineups have been very successful this season. Powell/KP lineups haven't. But, the sample size is almost nil. Point is, I'm not sure Maxi/KP is etched in stone. Starting one of the rim runners with KP also provides the added benefit of playing the other rim runner with Maxi off the bench. KP and Maxi starting together limits how you can use Powell and WCS since they can't be on the court together.
Other than the last two games THJ has started, it is hard to make a compelling case THJ is dramatically better (or the team is better) when he starts. He's one of the few main rotation players who is a net negative in floor time with KP. HOWEVER, if you dig deeper, a lot of that THJ/KP floor time has come in lineups with a single big. Six of Hardaway's seven most used five man lineups feature DFS at PF...the kiss of death for successful lineup construction (I should have noticed that before now). There are tons of 3 man lineups with THJ and Powell with excellent results. But only 34 minutes all season with KP/Powell/THJ playing together (+23.9). KP/Kleber/THJ have 166 minutes together this season with a net of -1.2.
It is amazing to me that what may be our best lineup (Powell/KP/DFS/THJ/Luka) has been used almost zero percent of the time this year. Of course, our most used five man lineup...KP/Maxi/DFS/JRich/Luka...is +12.6. As they say, if it ain't broke... The other thing about starting THJ is what it does to the bench. There are certain Brunson/JRich lineups that work (like having them as the first subs while KP is still on the floor) and some that don't. I thought benching JRich for Green IN MIAMI last night was either incredibly brave or incredibly stupid. I think it is important that Dallas not do anything to taint the leagues view of JRich. They need him to opt out and they need Duffy to be satisfied with how JRich was treated this season. I'm not sure benching JRich accomplished either of those thing.
Great analysis.
So what's the playoff rotation? Last night 13 players saw time, although Bey and Hinton were only 2 minutes each. Previous game, 12 players logged time. Close game against WAS, 10 players saw time. You know RC's probably not digging this deep once the playoffs start, unless there is a disaster.
Dance with what brung us? KP/Maxi/DFS/JRich/Luka? Powell, JB, Burke, THJ as main subs? WCS as needed? Bobi as change-of-pace guy? Does Green get time or are the rookies forgettable until next season?