04-27-2021, 04:04 PM
(04-27-2021, 03:55 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I think you make some good contextual points. Teams weren’t shooting as well overall in the early season. But, Dallas was ranked 4th defensively in that environment and Powell, Maxi and WCS were all posting very similar D-Ratings (until KP came back). You can’t write off good individual numbers to league-wide poor shooting when the team was beating 83% of its peers who were benefiting from the same issue.
Fast forward to March and April. Yeah, Maxi is struggling. But Powell is again thriving and outperforming the team as the team’s numbers improve. Is it small sample size noise, or a player who if finally healthy hustling his butt off. Or, is it something else. Whatever the reason, the data is the data. My assertion wasn’t that Powell is always the better defender. It was Powell is the better defender this year. Your use of 3 year data to prove DRPM’s superiority doesn’t mean much because 3 years ago Maxi was clearly the better defender...and it wasn’t close. This is confirmation bias. You seem to be a good stats person. I imagine you know the danger of trying to create a narrative to make the data conform to your view as much as anyone. It feels to me that you are doing just that to show your one data point is somehow better than the 8 or 9 that say something different (this year). BTW, half of those data points are just variants of RPM designed to fix issues other stat geeks have found (believe exist) with RPM.
Interesting question regarding D-Raptor. In 18/19 DP-MK were 43rd/93rd percentile. In 19/20 it was 68th/74th. This season it is 93rd/74th. BBall Index has a player comparison functionality that is kind of cool, but I think you have to subscribe to at least some of their stuff.
That´s why message boards have fallen behind social media. They should have implemented a keyword-based ignore function rather than a user-based. That way I could just put all content on ignore that has the words Powell + D-Raptor, Net rating, advanced, DRPM, RPM, percentile in it.
