04-11-2021, 11:16 AM
(04-11-2021, 04:17 AM)omahen Wrote: I don't think it is that simple, you have to take a bit longer outlook. Let's assume this team as they currently are, is not at contender level and they need a talent upgrade. Let's assume the ceiling of this team is relatively low. This means you will have to upgrade at some point and there are basically two ways to do it. FA (in 2021) or trades from there on. I will neglect draft as a serious option as our picks are relatively rare and most likely won't be very high to count on serious talent upgrade this way. Realistically best we can hope for are rotation players.
In the FA scenario you lose some of the floor (THJ, JRich) we have. I won't mention Melli, Boban or WCS because I think they are vet min guys and you can always sign those, no matter the scenario. However, the FA scenario gives you the option to raise the ceiling of the team by adding some high level talent. There are of course risks associated with this scenario - will you actually be able to convince the talent to come, will moves actually work and will (if you bring young players) they actually develop. This scenario might also leave you draft assets to play with in the future.
In the trade scenario you keep the team and aim to improve with trade, using your floor guys and assets to trade for higher floor and ceiling guys. There are of course risks associated with this too. Mavs were not able to cash on Lee expiring at last TDL, made just a minor trade in the offseason and again wasn't able to pull anything special at this TDL. Even if the trade happens there are also risks if it will actually work. Not everyone is convinced JRich-Curry trade was a good decision. Myself not being one of them. Trade scenario will also cost draft assets of course, limiting options for cheap (good) rotation players.
I hope playoffs will show us a better picture how high ceiling this team actually has. Regular season so far has been littered with disturbances (injuries, Covid,...) that make the picture blurry. Based on that Mavs might be able to decide what makes more sense - let go of a couple of guys to raise a ceiling of the team with talent or go for continuation with current core with just slight moves around the edges. Before than, I am open to all possibilities.
If we determine the ceiling is low on the current team, the goal would be to collect the most assets we can this off season. The question is which route is better to take, over the cap (trades) or under the cap (FA). Over the cap generally has an advantage because you can spend more money. Wading into FA (which has never been this organizations strength) with the intention of improving the ceiling with less money is a difficult thing to do. It is also risky, especially if you plan on making an RFA offer sheet. There is a significant danger of ending with less assets. The reality is, quality NBA players are assets, even on moderately overpriced contracts. Those contracts are also good for salary matching in later trades once we actually have some firsts to trade. I'm not saying we should not explore the FA route, just that it will be difficult to improve status quo plus MLE, and if our ceiling is low, asset acquisition should be the focus.