2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[mvossman]

Was just about to post the on/off stat.  He was 22 that one season when he was positive.  It is kind of shocking considering how good he’s been over the years at WS and VORP.

I think you have to look at the UFA guards together as a group if you assume Dallas would be interested in one.  Here, I’m mainly talking about DeRozan, Fournier and N. Powell.  All are similar in terms of Usage (mid-20’s).  DeRozan and Fournier have Assist %’s in the 30’s and a 2/1 Assist % to TO% ratio.  Powell is not a distributor, but he is a GREAT three point shooter.  Powell hasn’t been anything special in terms of On/Off, but Fournier has been positive most seasons.  You wouldn’t call any of them a defender.  The average DWS’s and DBPM’s for each for their career’s are:  Fournier (1.13, -0.8), DeRozan (1.73, -0.8) and Powell (1.35, 0.1).  For reference, JRich is 2.0 and 0.4.  Someone who really is a great defender, like Marcus Smart is 2.37 and 1.2.  20 year old THT is 1.7 and 1.4...did I mention he was only 20?  He has an Assist % of 19 (but TO’s are high) and as of now shoots 3’s worse than DeRozan (though he shows signs of being able to post a good TS% like DeRozan does).

I personally think Fournier is the better fit among Powell, DeRozan and Fournier.  Recall that we tried to trade for both Fournier and Powell and might have had Fournier if not for the Boston TPE.  Fournier isn’t starting in Boston, so I’m not sure his Bird rights mean much there.  Fournier is basically Hardaway with handles, something we could use.  But, I suspect you have to start him to get him and to justify the money he will command.  If you start him in place of JRich, you’ve solved two issues (3’s and playmaking) and created another (point of attack D).  But, to get that, you have to look at RFA’s like Lonzo and THT.  Rock meet hard place.

Yep, if we could somehow get Lonzo and keep Brunson, that would be a good reason to operate under the cap.  Then we have our quality 3&D replacement for JRich who can also distribute.  Brunson retains the 6th man role and can finish with the starters providing some additional offensive creation.  Potentially you have enough left over to either retain THJ or at least enough to outbid MLE for a second guy (maybe a McDermott to replace THJ or a Theis to shore up the big rotation).

I'm a little more leery of THT.  He is DFS on steroids.  Like DFS he is going to need to develop his 3 point shot in order to be a legit starter (especially on this team).  If he gets there, he would be awesome.  But that is an expensive gamble.