(04-09-2021, 05:46 PM)DanSchwartzgan Wrote: I’ve been thinking about this some today. I’m kind of haunted by the idea that Dallas tends to do things we don’t expect. I talked about Norman Powell in this regard with very little response. So, he would certainly qualify as someone that no one here is talking about.
But, this post is about THT. One thing I like strategically is that his max cost is finite. You can plan around that cost in terms of what you do elsewhere. For instance, if THJ is to be kept, you can give him his number and ask him to wait until you are done with THT. You can’t say that if your target is Lonzo or even UFA Norman Powell. There, you have to deal with where and for how much. You can’t give Hardaway a firm bid. With THT, the only question is whether he wants to go to your town.
I pick Hardaway as the keeper because I think Horton-Tucker more closely replicates what you have with JRich than what you have with Hardaway. If you let go of rights to JRich and WCS, you can give THJ $14.7mm as the last guy added after you get THT. That assumes a max $20.7mm offer for THT. It might not come to that. It doesn’t have to be Hardaway. It could be any $14.7mm Free Agent who can hit 3’s.
1. But, doesn’t THT’s RFA status risk you losing JRich and other free agents while you wait? I used to think that, but there are a pretty good number of guys that would take $20.7mm if the THT thing fails.
2. But, wouldn’t LAL just match any offer? That is the common wisdom here, but the Lakers have way too many moving parts to make blanket judgements. Those include Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso plus others in addition to THT. They could have a huge issue at C if Harrell leaves and Gasol now looking done (they have no rights on Drummond). They could have a huge issue at PG if Schroeder leaves...especially if the other team isn’t willing to just gift LA a TPE. Even if everything else goes perfectly, it may take multi-year deals for Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso and that means a huge LT bill for several years to come.
3. But, is he any good. Well, that is the $80 million question. He didn’t have a very good defensive reputation coming out of college, but his statistical profile as a pro with that bulk and his 7’1” wingspan is certainly encouraging. He can create for himself in ways that JRich can’t. He makes nice passes occasionally, but has way too many turnovers to call him a playmaker (think Julius Randle prior to this season when his Assist% nearly doubled while his TO% stayed mid-teens). It all comes down to his shot. When I watch his highlights, he makes all of them...kidding. When I watch his highlights, he looks really comfortable shooting the 3’s that go in. It hasn’t translated to even a tiny bit of consistency. He is absolutely a projection in this area.
Here’s the thing. Many of you rejected the 33+ PG’s. For the most part, you don’t see a path to Lonzo. I’ve posted that Dallas seems to want a point-of-attack defender to pair with Luka, so that may kill O-only guys like Powell, Monk Dinwiddie and Fournier. DeRozan and Oladipo probably cost more than $20.7mm and one can’t stay healthy and the other can’t hit a three (OK, neither can hit a three lately). If you are trying to upgrade JRich while keeping Hardaway AND you have an archetype you are looking for, is Cow right here? Is THT that guy (or at least might he be soon)?
I wish I were half as well thoughtful or well spoken written as you, Dan. Appreciate the thoughts. As far as the "will they match" question is concerned, I think they will to a point and I don't think that point is the max. They obviously like the kid, and he is a kid at 20, but LeBron has a window and I think once you get a a dollar amount, they'll forgo that potential to try to stay a competitive team.
The Lakers draft history is pretty insane of late, even if those players blossomed elsewhere (Randle, Kuzma, Ball, Lonzo, Ingram, Russell) so that gives me a lot of faith in THT. I think THT is advantageous for a couple of other reasons. We dream of that 3rd star but it's hard to combine egos with only one basketball. We see it with Luka and KP right now. THT isn't a guy that's going to need the ball like that. He can do a little bit of everything. I think he fits in if Luka and KP are the future and he'll also fit right in if Luka and ??? are the future. And along those lines of a 3rd star, maybe it's the pessimist in me, but I'm completely out on chasing big names and failing miserably. THT seems like the type of guy we've had success getting as evidenced with Parsons/Barnes, but unlike those two, you aren't elevating a teams 4th best option to be the future of the franchise but rather just elevating his role to support your franchise player(s).
On the flipside, we'd have to overpay to get him here so we'd need to be damned sure about unlocking that potential, because that's what he is right now. I can understand the camp that don't have interest.
I'm biased and he's one of three guys that I've absolutely loved and wanted to be a Mav. He joins Paul Millsap (I still can't believe the steal of a contract that Atlanta gave him) and Will Barton. You could argue the merits of Will the Thrill and I'm probably due for a dud, but what if you could turn THT into a super version of DFS but who has handles and can get to the rim at ease. Dan already mentioned his wingspan. The kid has a motor.
My final pitch: Jalen and Talen sounds like a pretty nifty combo.