2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

@"DanSchwartzgan" I am looking at LA's salaries and they don't look that bad. Schroder might cost some money but it's not like Caruso is going to break the bank. They will be just fine. They need to maximize LeBron's golden years so they are not going to pinch pennies. I also don't think anyones going to give THT an 80 million dollar poison pill contract, that would be nuts.

Below is from The Athletic (prior to the trade deadline)...  If you attribute the THT match as the last mile, whatever amount they choose to count toward the cap (actual or average) will be more than twice as expensive.  Let’s say they go 10/10/30/30.  If you assume they are in a similar LT position the next two years, then THT costs them more like 24/24/30/30.  If people think 4/80 is nuts, how does 4/108 sound?


Buha: You mentioned the hard cap. This offseason, the Lakers have several crucial decisions to make with multiple impending free agents, including Schröder, Montrezl Harrell (player option), Alex Caruso, Horton-Tucker, Markieff Morris and Wesley Matthews. Kyle Kuzma’s extension kicks in next season. LeBron James and Anthony Davis’ max contracts also rise in annual value. The roster is going to be expensive.
What type of luxury tax bill could the Lakers face in 2021-22 and how could that affect their trade deadline and/or offseason approach?

Leroux: That is a big question with this franchise even if ownership appears willing to pay a significant tax bill to keep the roster together, which gives the Lakers a huge competitive advantage. As of now, Los Angeles has $110 million committed to five players (James, Davis, Caldwell-Pope, Kuzma and Marc Gasol) including the $5 million owed to Luol Deng that counts against the cap and tax but not including Harrell at either his $9.7 million player option or a new salary as a free agent. With current projections putting the luxury tax line at $136.6 million, the Lakers only have about $26 million to spend before going over that threshold with a free agent group that includes Schröder, Harrell, Horton-Tucker and Caruso. One or more of that group may choose to play elsewhere next season as all but Horton-Tucker are unrestricted but the bill could get pretty big quickly. Let’s say three of the four return for a combined price of $35 million: at that point, the Lakers would already be $9 million over the tax with only eight players on the roster. Using the taxpayer mid-level exception on a new addition and then using veteran minimum contracts to get to fourteen players puts them at roughly $160 million, which puts them $23.4 million over the tax. In practical terms, that would mean a $57 million tax bill and a total team salary of over $217 million.

Remember, that is a lower-end estimate rather than something closer to the most they could spend using Bird rights and/or using unbalanced trades to add salary. That may not faze Jeanie Buss but remember that James, Davis and Kuzma are all under contract for at least one more year and some 2021 signings will likely join them with salary cap and luxury tax lines that will not rise more than 10 percent per season due to the agreement owners and players made during the pandemic.

My instinct is that the price tag does not affect Pelinka and the front office this offseason, but what they do may have larger ripple effects down the line, especially with James already in his mid-30s.