2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[DanSchwartzgan]

All roads lead to THT.  One very smart, very lucky front office will land him.

I’ve been thinking about this some today.  I’m kind of haunted by the idea that Dallas tends to do things we don’t expect.  I talked about Norman Powell in this regard with very little response.  So, he would certainly qualify as someone that no one here is talking about.

But, this post is about THT.  One thing I like strategically is that his max cost is finite.  You can plan around that cost in terms of what you do elsewhere.  For instance, if THJ is to be kept, you can give him his number and ask him to wait until you are done with THT.  You can’t say that if your target is Lonzo or even UFA Norman Powell.  There, you have to deal with where and for how much.  You can’t give Hardaway a firm bid.  With THT, the only question is whether he wants to go to your town.  

I pick Hardaway as the keeper because I think Horton-Tucker more closely replicates what you have with JRich than what you have with Hardaway.  If you let go of rights to JRich and WCS, you can give THJ $14.7mm as the last guy added after you get THT.  That assumes a max $20.7mm offer for THT.  It might not come to that.  It doesn’t have to be Hardaway.  It could be any $14.7mm Free Agent who can hit 3’s.  

1.  But, doesn’t THT’s RFA status risk you losing JRich and other free agents while you wait?  I used to think that, but there are a pretty good number of guys that would take $20.7mm if the THT thing fails.

2.  But, wouldn’t LAL just match any offer?  That is the common wisdom here, but the Lakers have way too many moving parts to make blanket judgements.  Those include Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso plus others in addition to THT.  They could have a huge issue at C if Harrell leaves and Gasol now looking done (they have no rights on Drummond).  They could have a huge issue at PG if Schroeder leaves...especially if the other team isn’t willing to just gift LA a TPE.  Even if everything else goes perfectly, it may take multi-year deals for Schroeder, Harrell and Caruso and that means a huge LT bill for several years to come.

3.  But, is he any good.  Well, that is the $80 million question.  He didn’t have a very good defensive reputation coming out of college, but his statistical profile as a pro with that bulk and his 7’1” wingspan is certainly encouraging.  He can create for himself in ways that JRich can’t.  He makes nice passes occasionally, but has way too many turnovers to call him a playmaker (think Julius Randle prior to this season when his Assist% nearly doubled while his TO% stayed mid-teens).  It all comes down to his shot.  When I watch his highlights, he makes all of them...kidding.  When I watch his highlights, he looks really comfortable shooting the 3’s that go in.  It hasn’t translated to even a tiny bit of consistency.  He is absolutely a projection in this area.

Here’s the thing.  Many of you rejected the 33+ PG’s.  For the most part, you don’t see a path to Lonzo.  I’ve posted that Dallas seems to want a point-of-attack defender to pair with Luka, so that may kill O-only guys like Powell, Monk Dinwiddie and Fournier.  DeRozan and Oladipo probably cost more than $20.7mm and one can’t stay healthy and the other can’t hit a three (OK, neither can hit a three lately).  If you are trying to upgrade JRich while keeping Hardaway AND you have an archetype you are looking for, is Cow right here?  Is THT that guy (or at least might he be soon)?