2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[omahen]

Thanks for posting that.  I thought the write-up comparing JRich to THJ was fascinating..  It points out Richardson’s 3% is trending the right way (though the sample size is only 21 for 52).  What I’m more interested in is whether our Defensive Specialist is actually good at D.  Post All-Star break his D-Rating is down to 113 (from 116) and his O-Rating is up to 111 (from 108) and his +/- is +4.7 vs. -3.9 before the break.  If you are going to argue JRich is anything different than what we had with Delon Wright, then the argument has to start with on-court effectiveness.

I made a statement yesterday about JRich needing to be replaced among the starters this offseason, to which you replied “why not DFS”.  I spent a little time tooling around data at BBall Index and found some things that were interesting in their defensive data.  DFS is second in the entire league in the amount of time he spends guarding players classified as “Shot Creators”.  JRich is 21st in that category.  JRich is classified as a point of attack defender and among players who have played 600 minutes, he is 22nd in percentage of time guarding the “Primary Ball Handler”.  Others who rate highly here are Delon Wright, Patrick Beverly and Danny Green (anyone notice a pattern).  If you want to move on from JRich, probably the most important thing to look for is the ability to defend the point of attack (so that Luka doesn’t have to).  

The list of guards who defend the point of attack and are good at it is pretty limited.  But, Dallas asks even more of this spot (this year with JRich and last year with DWright).  If you also ask them to guard “Shot Creators” a high percentage of time, then Lonzo and Jrue Holiday are the best alternatives.  Conley is also a good choice as a defender of Primary Ball Handlers, but he isn’t asked to guard Shot Creators like JRich is (and Wright was).  So, the conclusion I’m coming to is if JRich goes, it is probably going to have to be someone like Conley or Lonzo to make it really be an upgrade for what Dallas is trying to accomplish with the position.

The other thing that was interesting about the article is how “Luka Dependent” Hardaway is.  How much would it cost to get someone who hits 40% of their 3’s without requiring Luka’s help?  Are those more easily attained than Lonzo or Conley would be.  AND, what player like this would be willing to come off the bench like THJ does or be a good enough defender to push DFS to a bench role as you suggested yesterday?  It is hard to find that one guy, but bear in mind that if you move on from THJ, you might be able to land two guys at something above the MLE.  The amount of pure cap space this summer isn’t what it used to be, so two guys in the $11mm - $13mm (one being the 3 point specialist and one filling another hole), might be a good way to go also.

I think we will be mostly guessing until playoffs, performance there will paint the final picture and it might be considerably different than it is now. I very much share concerns about Brunson as Sleepinghero does. I think this might be the main question - is Brunson able to take the role Richardson has? Firstly he is certainly limited by his size so guarding elite SG might be a problem. Mavs are already hiding Luka on defense, can't afford to have more guards like that in the same lineup. Still, if he can, Mavs can more easily move on from Richardson and keep THJ. I didn't propose to bench DFS. Bringing someone like Collins would just reduce DFS minutes from 35+ to some 25. Kleber would be coming in from bench as the third big taking both back up PF and C minutes. 

Maybe Mavs have two basic options. Either to continue with this team (playoffs will show how good they really are) or do a small reset and improve the talent base. In first case we will see minor changes, operate over the cap and add a good MLE guy. Perhaps lose one of THJ/JRich for an alternative, perhaps a Powell trade etc. In the second case I see Mavs going aggresively after one of the top RFA - Collins or Ball. In both cases, it would mean a huge difference if Mavs said goodbye to Powell. He can be a great guy, but his contract is a serious burden. If they dump him, they can operate with 40+ mil of caps space and perhaps go after both Ball and Markannen. That would be a move that could make it easier to survive losing THJ and JRich. If they can only snatch one (like Ball or Collins) and keep Powell, than Mavs will go slowly and add talent in the following years. It will be very difficult (impossible imho) to find a shooter even close to THJ caliber with mini MLE. 

I agree with your last part. One guy fits your description a lot - McDermott. His cost would likely be in the 10 mil range most. So, keep JRich at some 13 mil, sgn McDermott for 10 and big wing for remaining 11 or so millions. OPJ, DJJ come to mind. Or perhaps third big - Holmes might be an option, although I am affraid he will get much more. Olynik or Theis would be pipedream for mini MLE.