03-29-2021, 02:02 PM
(03-29-2021, 01:22 PM)cow Wrote: It's more about taking analytics they are gathering (Haralabos Voulgaris) and then creating targets to chase in free agency rather than spin their tires chasing big names. I think you could recruit the names I listed fairly easily, at least compared to the big names we've typically chased in the pass. And while the A's never won a championship, baseball isn't basketball and I'm not sure I'd put anyone on those A's teams at the level of comparative talent to Luka. Further, we've all long debated fit next to Luka. Some people want to go after a big three and others (myself included) want a team of RoCo/Morris/Tucker level players around him. Moneyball would let you accomplish the latter. Against the moneyball idea would be the depth of talent in the sports.
Ya I am not against the Moneyball approach actually. Mavs need to admit they are a second tier city that isn't going to get the big FAs like LeBron to come here on their own.
After they failed to get Kemba 2 years ago they actually did fall back on value deals, inking Curry and Delon Wright as their gets after missing out on Danny Green and maybe PatBev (altho much talked ab never got confirmed if they actually made an offer). So Curry was a win that summer but then also a loss in the sense that Mavs passed up Brogdan. The reason they could do multi-year deals is that they knew their next opportunity to spend money would be this offseason. Once they strike out on whoever they think wants to come here I expect them to fall-back on the Curry/moneyball approach. That is because the next window for spending cap space will not be until KP's opt-out year.
Mavs might sign guys on team-friendly contracts, make trades or perhaps go all in on somebody. I would be my money on failing to go all-in on somebody because as much as they like John Collins, I don't believe they will want to give up all the assets they would need to in order to get him.
There are lots of trade opportunities so I would not discount the idea of a Buddy Hield trade or something along those lines.
I know this board doesn't like guys over 30 and I get it but I think in Moneyball-ish terms these guys get undervalued because rebuilding teams don't want them but many of these guys are still productive and you can usually get them on short deals. Remember too that expiring contracts have value. If for example Powell had been an expiring contract, Andre Drummond would likely be on the Mavs not the Lakers right now. Take that for what it's worth.
Guys like Conley, DeRozan, Green, Lowry, Ibaka, Millsap, Dragic, Patty Mills, PJ Tucker, Rudy Gay, Rose, and so on have been productive players into their 30's. Not coincidentally they are all on current playoff teams. Playoff teams tend to want these guys. Contenders tend to even want washed up buyout guys like Griffin and Aldridge.
So ya I am not for or against young/old, its just when you target a guy that is 25 and productive you have double or triple the amount of teams after that player and the risk can actually be higher because you tend to have to pay that guy more dollars and more years. The years are actually a bigger problem than the dollars.