03-21-2021, 09:29 AM
(03-20-2021, 04:18 PM)omahen Wrote: KP trade was awesome, I would repeat it 100 times out of 100. As a plus it turned out that THJ contract actually isn't all that bad, he is actually a very solid player. There is no turning back from this point. Mavs have a very solid base of 7 players. I don't believe our picks/rookies and expiring contracts aren't enough to add one piece in the starting lineup. Then add the second piece with MLE. The art of course is to nail those final two pieces of the puzzle.
I'd probably say we have 8 players with Willie Cauley-Powell serving as backup C. So, in an 8 man rotation, bigs are KP, Maxi and WCP. Wings are JRich, THJ and DFS and Ball handlers are Luka and Brunson.
I've long thought that the best use of assets is to trade for a keeper piece now and operate over the cap in the summer using the full MLE on another. The fairly recent conversations about a trade that removes Powell from the cap probably provides an alternative. You can keep one of THJ/JRich and add a FA this summer (so you don't have to lose future picks/rookies). But, you don't get the full MLE unless you trade match for someone this summer.
That's the when, the next question is who. Roland Beech used to be the Mav's advanced stats guy. His site, 82games.com has a two part "simple rating" that measures production relative to one's on-court counterpart and On/Off. You have to be careful with On/Off because who a player is replaced by makes a big difference. You have to be careful with relative production because scheme can have an impact (especially for bigs). WCP is (are) the worst on the team by Beech's Simple Rating. Both impact the team quite positively on an On/Off basis, but get destroyed in relative production. The other glaring issue is Richardson. He holds his own vs. his positional opponent, but gets killed in On/Off.
Almost all of us look at this team and see different things as needs. Tim Cato's recent trade piece rated 1. Elite Perimeter D, 2. Elite Perimeter Shooting and 3. Elite Shot Creation as those needs. As much as I'd like to combine Willie Cauley and Powell into a single guy to play that role, KP's health probably demands there be two of them and there isn't a backup Center out there who solves the issues Cato has listed. As far as TDL and Free Agency are concerned, I think it comes down to moving DFS or JRich. I read more than one person recently say they wouldn't trade JRich for such-and-such. I'm not sure I agree. If we are being honest, Delon Wright put up much better numbers last year while being similarly bad in On/Off. We couldn't move on from him fast enough.
JRich provides Elite Defensive reputation, though the D is actually better when he sits (same is true with DFS). But, JRich kills us on Shot Creation and Perimeter Shooting at a position that should provide both. He's the 79th rated SG by RPM. If you look at the list of guards who make positive contributions compared to Power Wings, it would be much easier to find an upgrade for JRich than an upgrade for DFS. So, I'm starting to take notice more of the rumors around Lonzo, Lowry, Fournier, Hill and Graham.