2020-2021 ROSTER TALK: Archived

[SleepingHero]

I'm standing firm on THJ island. 

He's gotta be near that 40% mark on his 3pt shooting again (he was 42.1% off the catch last year) for them to make the playoffs, and I think he will be. 

I hope he earns a good deal, and I don't think it would be the end of the world for it to be a Mavericks deal.

One of the biggest things I'm afraid of is a THJ regression to the mean. By all accounts last year for him was an outlier. He regressed heavily (39.8% reg season-> 32.8/35.2 in the bubble/playoffs) during the Bubble AND playoffs. Sure 14 game sample size is small (still 17% of the regular season), but it's something everyone should keep in the back of our minds.

EDIT: Just to dive a little further, on catch-and shoot in the bubble, THJ was 33.3% on 3's, shooting nearly 7 a game. In the playoffs, his catch and shoot 3 mark was more comforting, a great 40%. In both cases his pull-up shot tanked his overall stats (31% bubble, 26% playoffs).