2020-2021 MAVS NEWS: Archived

[dirkfansince1998]

Yeah, that was really fascinating, so I dove a bit deeper in the numbers. The "Brunson" line-up basicaly didn't play together before February. "Luka" lineup logged 31 minutes in this stretch, so almost half of their total minutes. This was of course stretch hit by injuries and tough schedule. 

In February "Brunson" lineup logged 36 minutes and was net negative -6.6. "Luka" one played 27 minutes and was negative at -9.1. Brunson unit had most of their minutes in first and third quarter where they were positive. They were absolutely killed in the fourth quarter with negative -115 in 7 minutes  Doncic unit got almost half of their minutes in the fourth quarter and they were negative 18 in this stretch (most used 4th quarter unit). These are of course very small samples.

March was the month where Brunson unit got most minutes and best result. This correlates with best stretch of Mavs basketball this season. They have an awesome +47 net rating in this stretch, absolutely killing it in the first half with a positive 58 rating. Interestingly they logged only 2 minutes in the final quarter and were killed again with -75 in this stretch. "Doncic" unit played only 9 minutes in March and were awful -29. 

Luka unit continues to be bad in April with -27, while Brunson unit is at 12. Brunson unit continues to dominate first quarters while Luka one was destroyed in thrid quarters. However, April gives extremely small sample. 

Overall I would say Brunson unit is killing it in the second half of first quarter and second one. The unit also profited from overall good March performance when both THJ and Brunson were excellent. Minutes of Doncic unit were much dispersed all around and I can't decipher a pattern when they play together. It is a real mistery why this particular group shows so bad numbers. For example: 4 out of 5 most used 4th quarter lineups used both Luka and KP with different combinations of THJ, Brunson, Kleber, DFS and JRich along them. Two units are excellent +42, one unit is decent +9 and "Luka" unit is -22. The only pattern I could see - "worse" units include THJ and good ones doesn't. "Brunson unit" is unbelievable negative 109 in the fourth quarters for the season

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Sure, but all of this doesn't explain why JRich and THJ actually work very well together with Brunson but not with Luka.

Brunson/Doncic +97 in 572 minutes
Brunson/THJ +38 in 829 minutes
Brunson/Richardson +26 in 552 minutes
Doncic/THJ +35 in 914 minutes
Doncic/Richardson -8 in 884 minutes

We cannot ignore that THJ and Doncic had to play without the rest of the starters for nearly a month but that obviously does not explain the recent numbers. Also have to factor in the easier schedule post allstar break.

Looking at 3-man combinations:

THJ/Richardson/Brunson -11 in 315 minutes
Richardson/THJ/Doncic -74 in 368 minutes

Brunson is awesome but even next to him the team has a negative net rating when both share the floor. I do think that Brunson´s spot up ability can help other guards but it´s not enough to overcome the lack of playmaking and shot creation. Offense is clearly worse but without Luka the defensive rating improves.