2020-2021 MAVS NEWS: Archived

[RDB]

Shooting from inside 10 feet is not what I spoke about. It's about finishing at the rim, which requires him to explode past or elevate above whatever defender there may be to get to a lay-in or dunk.

Last season, when he got past the first defender, he was lethal. He was finishing, and he might get an and-1 too. This year, with less explosiveness, some times he ends up fiddling around from 5-7 feet, and tossing up a floater, because he can't get to the rim. But even if he gets to the rim, he's not converting as easily, so now at times he is even turning down layup attempts and trying a pass, rather than to finish.

Watch the games. We are now seeing a hesitation on a lot of his drives. Or look at tape from last year and the year before, then compare to now, and see the difference. It's visible.

It also could be that we define explosiveness differently 

My comments were based on what I am seeing. But looking at the stats, they say the same thing.

Last season he was finishing at a rate higher than 75%. This season it's just 62%. Or to put it another way, last season he only failed to convert about 25% of the time, but now it's half again higher up to 38%. That creates doubt and can entice you to look for other options.

Of course, the numbers can't tell us why. It can be lots of factors. Less quickness to get past the defender (physical). Lack of explosiveness to finish (physical). Different decision-making (mental). Poorer outside shooting on 3s to keep defenders from playing the drive and sagging off (skill). And it can be a mix of all of that.

But regardless of why, it's a fact that the end result on his drives is not what it was last year, and that then has a ripple effect.

Maybe so...where did you get your drive stats?  I see rim stats of 74.9% and layup of 67% on Basketball Reference for last year.  I don’t know if they use tip-in’s, put backs, etc. for rim stats but I used the drive stats from NBA.com which shows higher percentages this year than last.  I’m sure drive stats also includes some shots not considered at the rim but at the end of the day, it’s about getting the bucket.

As far as how we define explosiveness, maybe your right that we define it differently.  I believe Luka relies on basketball IQ, timing, strength, and feel, not explosiveness.  He has average lateral speed and a below average vertical.  What he does have is great handles and elite ability to stop on a dime.  That’s why you see all the crossovers and jab steps.  He looks to get defenders leaning.  He does it on his drives and he does it on his step backs.  If he doesn’t get what he wants, he will reset and try again.  He doesn’t do it through elevation, he rarely dunks, and if you watch his rim shots, he usually doesn’t elevate over the defender.  As a matter of fact, I bet if you look at all his finishes last year, he probably wasn’t more that 12” of the floor on most releases.
 
As far as hesitation, he has always done that and you are seeing more NBA players do it as well.  You may be right that he may be doing it more but I believe it is less him and more the defenses.  Other coaches aren’t dumb and you can see that teams are trying to cut off some of his passing angles and crowding the paint more.  I think if/when our outside shooting becomes more consistent, things will open up a little bit.  However I think the hesitation is a critical part of his game.  If he gets a defender on his hip, with his size and body control he is hard to stop.  If he gets his defender behind him, that’s also when you see him hesitate or back into the defender.  He is basically waiting on the next move.   If others collapse, he will dish or drive past.  If they don’t collapse, he will take the floater.  The reason he can get away with this is because he has otherworldly touch at close range.

Luka plays chess while others play checkers.  We should be thankful that he is one of the best penetrators in the league and doesn’t rely on explosiveness.  Explosiveness fades but BBIQ is forever.  

I’m not looking to get in an argument and I hope you didn’t take my comment personally.  We all have our perspectives and mine is that Luka’s effectiveness comes from something other than explosiveness and while there are many on this site that are blaming the Mavs woes on Luka’s weight, my opinion is that it is not because of HIS inside game.  However, weight/dead legs are likely the cause of some of his outside shooting woes.  I do respect your position though and you may very well be right.  Anyway, it was a really good and well thought out post.  Cheers.