EXTENSION: Gobert signs 5yr/$205M w/ UTA | DAL "significant interest" if available

[Kammrath]

The Mavs have been planning for years for 2021 free agency. They have been building their roster with that free agency year in mind. It is no secret in NBA circles. It was what we were told going into free agency and everything has continued to play out with 2021 free agency in mind...the Mavs are poised to have a MAX slot to sign a superstar in 2021.


Is all of this work and planning just about Giannis? Are the Mavs that convinced he will look elsewhere and leave? Or are they just willing to build their roster for years for the pipe-dream 1% shot at Giannis? 

There was heavy word around the league very recently that Giannis would sign the supermax in MIL this offseason, and YET the Mavs didn't change their course in team building so far this offseason. Did they not change course because Giannis changed his mind suddenly because MIL lost out on Bogdanovic? 

OR

Is it possible that they didn't change course because 2021 free agency wasn't ONLY about Giannis? Wonder if there was always a back up plan? Or is it possible that there was always a different "Plan A" that the Mavs have always known was more realistic? Wonder if Rudy Gobert was the confident plan and target all along? 


Why is Gobert probably more realistic than Giannis? 

1) Gobert and Donovan have had a falling out. 

https://twitter.com/Tjonesonthenba/statu...5221690368

2) Donovan just signed long term in UTA (today in fact). I think Gobert and Donovan are "co-existing" at best. How will Gobert react to this? 

https://twitter.com/wojespn/status/1330559384070578178

3) Gobert is eligible for the supermax and IF UTA offered it I bet he would sign it because that is a lot of money to walk away from. But I do not see UTA offering him the full supermax. I bet they will negotiate with him and how will his attitude be in negotiations when he is already at odds with Donovan?

https://twitter.com/Clintonite33/status/...8099590144

4) Gobert admires Luka and I believe DAL in general. I bet he would love to in DAL for the long term.

https://twitter.com/rudygobert27/status/...6118972416

5) Luka admires Gobert and I bet would love to play with him rather than against him.

https://twitter.com/andyblarsen/status/1...9836641288


But many would say "KP is the center for the Mavs, Gobert is NOT a fit!" I fundamentally disagree that Gobert would not be a fit in DAL.

Why is Gobert a good fit?

1) KP is a VERY versatile big man who can seamlessly play the 4 or the 5 as needed. Gobert and KP could share the floor together with KP playing more of the 4 role (and on offense, KP on the perimeter has been very potent for the Mavs anyway). 

2) KP probably needs to be on a minutes restriction to lengthen his career and keep him ready for the playoffs. Gobert affords DAL the opportunity to rest KP and not take a hug step back (or weather the loss of KP to injury).

3) The Mavs can either spend a few resources to trade for him THIS season OR if UTA won't bite, then wait it out and sign him outright in the upcoming offseason (they have the room now).

4) Gobert is a rim-rolling (72nd, 93rd, 87th, and 95th percentile) plus on offense, +6.5, +4.5, +2.2, +7.9 the last four seasons. He would slide into the role that DP had filled alongside KP so successfully.

5) Gobert is a 2 time DPOY who has anchored the UTA defense for years. He led the NBA in DRPM last year (and four years ago) with +4.85 and has been top 5 one other time in the last four years. 

6) There is ALWAYS a fit with TALENT. If you don't have talent then yeah fit can be hard sometimes, but when you have tons of talent, the talented players will figure out how to make it work.



A few questions I would want any fan who doubts the fit to ask themselves?

1) Do you really think the Mavs defense would be WORSE for getting Gobert? Do you think adding someone like Bogdanovic would make the team D in DAL better than adding Gobert would? Who could the Mavs get (outside of Giannis) that would make the team D better than it would be with Gobert?

2) Do you really think the Mavs offense would be worse by adding Gobert as a rim-rolling threat next to KP? Do you think KP can't play offensively alongside a rim rolling big? 

3) Do you really think RC wouldn't be able to figure out how to best utilize all this talent if given the time and chance? Do you really think the Mavs should pass on an All Star and All Defensive TALENT because of the perceived idea of "fit"?


The big complaint with Gobert has been the myth that he has been "exposed" in the playoffs. I would argue very strongly that was has been exposed in the playoffs with UTA is how much Gobert makes that entire defense run on his own. I think you could argue that he is the only true strength in their D (with the exception of maybe Ingles) and so when playoff teams have isolated him on the perimeter they have not exposed Gobert as being flawed, they have exposed the dark underbelly truth about UTA: they suck as a defensive team apart from Gobert, so if he can be pulled away from the rim you have checkmated UTA especially if you are an eilte playoff team. 

With Gobert + KP on D, the Mavs would always have one rim protecting big backing up the other. Therefore KP or Gobert could close out confidently knowing the other one has his back.





TLDR: The Mavs should not only be hoping in the lottery ticket of Giannis not signing the supermax, they should be strongly pursuing Gobert (whether by trade now OR as a free agent signing in 2021).

[jesusshuttlesworth82]

I feel bad you put that much effort into it.  Ain't happening.

[Mavs2019]

I feel bad you put that much effort into it.  Ain't happening.

Certainly not now. Maybe if they strike out on Giannis in 2021, they move onto Gobert, but I still think they´d pursue other players.

[burekemde]

I like the idea. Gobert is not a superstar, rather a star. With that in mind, he would still make us a lot better.

[Mavs2019]

Also imagine how frustrating this new Dallas approach must be for all these veterans around the league, that chase a big deal in free agency or are looking for a last retirement cheque.  

Usually who you gonna call? The Oldrosters.

Now we have only two players in their 30s on the roster (Boban+Johnson). Not sure this has ever happened in the Carlisle era.

[loki]

KP's perimeter defense will be even more exposed if he's playing the 4 next to a true center. I don't like the fit at all. If Dallas doesn't think he can stay healthy or they don't want to take advantage of his most valuable skill (stretch 5 that has to be guarded from the logo) then they should just move on.

[cow]

I'd be interested if we could get him now or at the TDL so we can see how the concert of Luka, KP and Gobert operates with one another. It would also be conditional on what he expects from his next contract. I think he's an asset as his current number but much more than that and it might be a guy that's hard to return value for if you wanted to get off of him. What's his max free agency contract look like if he decides to leave next year?

Not trying to pick sides on the Mitchell/Gobert dispute but Gobert showed incredible immaturity with that COVID press conference and touching all of those microphones.

And like I said in the other thread, I don't think you can be so rigid of the Mavs' future as Luka + KP + ???. KP's latest injury and not being available in the most important games the Mavs had in the almost a decade in conjunction with multiple legs injuries for superstars on other teams (KD and KT) might alter the long term hopes for him.

[Kammrath]

KP's perimeter defense will be even more exposed if he's playing the 4 next to a true center.

I think you missed (or didn't read) my point on this:

Perimeter D is exposed when there is no back-up to help if you get beat. If KP gets beat on the perimeter, then guess who is waiting? Rudy "DPOY" Gobert. When you have someone behind you defending the rim it allows you to play the perimeter in a way that is more successful for team D. 


The Mavs would also have all sorts of zone options with KP+Gobert and we know that RC has had GREAT success with zone defenses in the past.

[cow]

The zone defense is a good point. RC is great at using it as a change of pace once a game and usually trips the opposing teams up.

[ClutchDirk]

https://media.giphy.com/media/c6DIpCp1922KQ/giphy.gif

[Kammrath]

https://media.giphy.com/media/c6DIpCp1922KQ/giphy.gif

[loki]

KP's perimeter defense will be even more exposed if he's playing the 4 next to a true center.

I think you missed (or didn't read) my point on this:

Perimeter D is exposed when there is no back-up to help if you get beat. If KP gets beat on the perimeter, then guess who is waiting? Rudy "DPOY" Gobert. When you have someone behind you defending the rim it allows you to play the perimeter in a way that is more successful for team D. 


The Mavs would also have all sorts of zone option with KP+Gobert and we know that RC has had GREAT success with zone defenses in the past.

I appreciate what Gobert brings as a rim protector, but that doesn't mean you can have a lineup full of turnstiles and rely on him to erase every mistake. He'll get into foul trouble quickly, and that much dribble penetration is still going to generate tons of opportunities for the offense. 

I can just imagine KP getting abused in the PNR every game like Lillard did to him in the bubble. Maybe he wouldn't have gone off for 61 with Gobert at the rim, but I still don't think it would have been pretty.

[vfromlmf]

You make a great point about the impact of Gobert on defense.

Look, KP is going to play what 32-34 MPG? That means there are 14-16 minutes available to someone, when KP is on the bench.

Gobert is going to play what, 32-34 MPG? 

So if Gobert plays while KP sits, you're talking about the two of them sharing the floor for only roughly 16-20 MPG.

Shifting to the Mavs current situation, if you think KP is going to share the floor with some combination of WCS, Powell or Kleber for 16 minutes -- basically 7-8 min to start the game and to open the 2nd half -- do you really think the defense is going to be worse by replacing those minutes with DPOY Rudy Gobert?!

[Kammrath]

I can just imagine KP getting abused in the PNR every game like Lillard did to him in the bubble. Maybe he wouldn't have gone off for 61 with Gobert at the rim, but I still don't think it would have been pretty.

What happened to KP in the playoffs is the exact thing that happened to Gobert. 

KP was one of the only good things going for the Mavs defense this year, so pulling him to the perimeter and blowing past him left the middle completely open (layup line). This is what opposing teams have done with Gobert in the playoffs. The solution is not to get rid of Gobert or KP (they aren't the problem IMO), but to build a better TEAM defense around them. Now you don't HAVE to do that with another big, but I am suggesting there is no reason you can't do it with another big. 

As long as the Mavs have KP they will be weakened when he is switched onto a Lillard type on the perimeter, so the Mavs can either shore up the help BEHIND KP (see Gobert as an example) OR they can move on from KP. 

Again, my argument is that KP+Gobert on D would NOT weaken the other, it would HELP the other drastically in fact.

[KillerLeft]

Again, my argument is that KP+Gobert on D would NOT weaken the other, it would HELP the other drastically in fact.

[cow]

https://media.giphy.com/media/c6DIpCp1922KQ/giphy.gif

I hope you weren't banging your sister before paralyzing Clutch.  The good news is that Clutch can see the future and tell us what happens in the Giannis sweepstakes.

[ClutchDirk]

https://media.giphy.com/media/c6DIpCp1922KQ/giphy.gif

I hope you weren't banging your sister before paralyzing Clutch.  The good news is that Clutch can see the future and tell us what happens in the Giannis sweepstakes.

https://media.giphy.com/media/oHxWy43FuG.../giphy.gif

[JamesConway]

Embiid + Horford

That’s all I’m gonna say to this KP & Gobert idea.

I’m on board with trying to sign him but a) he will prefer other options regardless Imo and b) if he comes here you better move on from KP. Gobert would be a terrific hedge & KP would land us a great player via trade.

[dirkfansince1998]

Embiid + Horford

That’s all I’m gonna say to this KP & Gobert idea.

I’m on board with trying to sign him but a) he will prefer other options regardless Imo and b) if he comes here you better move on from KP. Gobert would be a terrific hedge & KP would land us a great player via trade.

Ben Simmons. The 76ers paid a king`s ransom for Curry for a reason. Mavs would still have 4 good shooters on the floor.
76ers had mediocre Horford/Embiid and all time bad Simmons.

[loki]

You make a great point about the impact of Gobert on defense.

Look, KP is going to play what 32-34 MPG? That means there are 14-16 minutes available to someone, when KP is on the bench.

Gobert is going to play what, 32-34 MPG? 

So if Gobert plays while KP sits, you're talking about the two of them sharing the floor for only roughly 16-20 MPG.

Shifting to the Mavs current situation, if you think KP is going to share the floor with some combination of WCS, Powell or Kleber for 16 minutes -- basically 7-8 min to start the game and to open the 2nd half -- do you really think the defense is going to be worse by replacing those minutes with DPOY Rudy Gobert?!

The closing lineup is what's most important if Dallas pays max deals for both. They will have to play together when it really matters. Whether the defense is better or worse could depend on the matchups. With guys like Powell and Kleber, they are at least capable of picking up someone on the perimeter without a guaranteed blow-by. What happens when a team like the Lakers or Bucks go small and Dallas has KP+Gobert on the court? Imagine Lebron and AD playing the 4/5, or Giannis at the 5, surrounded by shooters. That would be a nightmare to cover.

What happened to KP in the playoffs is the exact thing that happened to Gobert. 

KP was one of the only good things going for the Mavs defense this year, so pulling him to the perimeter and blowing past him left the middle completely open (layup line). This is what opposing teams have done with Gobert in the playoffs. The solution is not to get rid of Gobert or KP (they aren't the problem IMO), but to build a better TEAM defense around them. Now you don't HAVE to do that with another big, but I am suggesting there is no reason you can't do it with another big. 

As long as the Mavs have KP they will be weakened when he is switched onto a Lillard type on the perimeter, so the Mavs can either shore up the help BEHIND KP (see Gobert as an example) OR they can move on from KP. 

Again, my argument is that KP+Gobert on D would NOT weaken the other, it would HELP the other drastically in fact.

The team defense should be improved significantly with the Richardson addition. Re-watching some old clips of that Portland game, the inability of THJ and Curry to fight over screens really exposes KP's drop coverage and gives up open shots constantly. I think they will show improvement here already.

Will Gobert address that weakness in another way? Of course. But it also allows more dribble penetration and open 3's (especially if you're playing tons of zone). And I think teams would target both Gobert & KP more frequently than they currently do.