05-15-2021, 01:06 AM
(05-15-2021, 12:44 AM)Scott41theMavs Wrote: So, if I count correctly, only a 1 in 4 chance that the Mavs play the Nuggets. Dang. And they're evenly split between whether we win or lose against the Wolves.
Out of the 16 scenarios in which the Mavs win on Sunday, there are 12 that match the Mavs with the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs and 4 that match the Mavs with the Nuggets. Likewise, out of the 16 scenarios in which the Mavs lose on Sunday, there are 12 that match the Mavs with the Clippers in the first round of the playoffs and 4 that match the Mavs with the Nuggets.
Eight of the 32 scenarios result in Mavs vs. Nuggets, and the other 24 out of 32 result in Mavs vs. Clippers.
So ...
Yes, you counted correctly, but "counting" is not necessarily the correct way to calculate the probability that the Mavs will play the Nuggets (because the 32 different combinations are not equally likely).