Lineup Discussion: Good on Paper Vs Good on Court

[Kammrath]

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This is his explanation:

Here's what I did:
>Plug in a team's most-used lineup
(AB/Green/LeBron/AD/McGee)
>Find avg net rating for its 50 comps
(-1.1 pts per 100 poss)
>Repeat for the next 9 most-used lineups
(-2.7, +9.2, -0.4, +1.4, -4.5, +7.3, +3.5, +2.4, +8.0)
>Avg ratings weighted by poss
(+0.7)

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Here is his article on his lineup similarity app:

https://fansided.com/2020/09/16/nylon-ca...mparisons/


Here is the app:

https://crumpledpaperjumper.shinyapps.io...eupFinder/

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He classifies all players by three skills:

1) Floor Spacing
2) Offensive Creation
3) Rim Protection

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So Todd Whitehead put this together and asks this question:

The Lakers (and Mavs) are succeeding with player-archetype combinations that don't work for other teams. Would they be even BETTER with more optimized fit? Or are their players just unique?

What do you think?

[KillerLeft]

This is a crazy amount of information. Really interesting. I have a feeling I'm not going to agree with how certain players are classified within the parameters set up, but I'd have to deep dive to find out. I will take all this in more slowly when I get the chance. Good stuff!

[Hypermav]

pretty colors

[DanSchwartzgan]

Here is the app:

https://crumpledpaperjumper.shinyapps.io...eupFinder/

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What do you think?

Interesting.  Luka and KP are super upper right on a couple of these graphs.  Hardaway's agent needs to show the S + P graph in the power-point on why he deserves to be extended.  Maxi is also a fairly unique player.

When you dig into the app a little you find the Mav's really struggled to find a fifth starter to go with KP, Luka, THJ and DFS.  Powell was good, but that isn't a sure thing going forward.  No one else really set the world on fire.  With that said, there were combos with some of the starters alongside bench players that were promising.  Brunson in place of Luka with the other starters did just fine.  You could even find some lineups with Wright that worked.  There were some really bad Maxi lineups and Curry wasn't especially helpful.  Not disastrous, just not helpful.

The tough thing is injuries and a short season prevented us from getting enough of a look at many of these combos to know certain things with certainty.  My takeaway is about what it was before seeing these graphs.  If we could find one more starter in the Top 60 of the NBA range, we'd have enough to finish off the starters.  We already have some very good bench players except when we ask them to be starters.  We probably need one good one.  With health, that team is hosting first round playoff games.

[KillerLeft]

https://media.giphy.com/media/QA7C1yuI0Q.../giphy.gif

[Scott41theMavs]

Interesting. Luka and KP are super upper right on a couple of these graphs. Hardaway's agent needs to show the S + P graph in the power-point on why he deserves to be extended. .

He absolutely doesn't need to be extended at more than $11 mil per if the Mavs have serious interest in team-building and winning. Great post, but we need two new starters, with THJ being replaced. If they want to do that in '21 as opposed to now, (grumble) fine, but no extension.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Interesting.  Luka and KP are super upper right on a couple of these graphs.  Hardaway's agent needs to show the S + P graph in the power-point on why he deserves to be extended. .

Great post, but we need two new starters, with THJ being replaced.

You may have mentioned that before.  

That isn’t necessarily what the guys data shows.  On Court/Off Court data also shows THJ isn’t the problem.  In fact, 82games.com shows THJ as best on the team in On/Off.  I get being worried that his shooting was a one year aberration.  I’m also fine with trading THJ if something better is coming back.  

But, short of those things, I don’t really want to use resources to replace Hardaway.  It won’t be that easy to improve upon him and we don’t have that many resources.  KP/Luka/DFS/THJ shows up just fine in the guys data.  The funny thing is I can make a pretty good argument for the fifth piece being just about any position from PG to C.  I wish his software allowed that kind of thing.

[Kammrath]

82games.com shows THJ as best on the team in On/Off

NBA Stats shows that DP (+5.3), DFS (+4.0), and KP (+3.4) all had better on/off than THJ (+3.3) this year. 

But yes THJ had a good year in on/off. The fear I have vocalized is about how bad his on/off has looked when he isn't shooting 40% from three.

[Dundalis]

Here is the app:

https://crumpledpaperjumper.shinyapps.io...eupFinder/

---

What do you think?

Interesting.  Luka and KP are super upper right on a couple of these graphs.  Hardaway's agent needs to show the S + P graph in the power-point on why he deserves to be extended.  Maxi is also a fairly unique player.

When you dig into the app a little you find the Mav's really struggled to find a fifth starter to go with KP, Luka, THJ and DFS.  Powell was good, but that isn't a sure thing going forward.  No one else really set the world on fire.  With that said, there were combos with some of the starters alongside bench players that were promising.  Brunson in place of Luka with the other starters did just fine.  You could even find some lineups with Wright that worked.  There were some really bad Maxi lineups and Curry wasn't especially helpful.  Not disastrous, just not helpful.

The tough thing is injuries and a short season prevented us from getting enough of a look at many of these combos to know certain things with certainty.  My takeaway is about what it was before seeing these graphs.  If we could find one more starter in the Top 60 of the NBA range, we'd have enough to finish off the starters.  We already have some very good bench players except when we ask them to be starters.  We probably need one good one.  With health, that team is hosting first round playoff games.

The issue is THJ and DFS are both almost soley reliant on 3pt shooting efficiency to remotely be capable NBA starters. MAYBE they keep up the trend, but they are both in their late 20's and just had complete anomoly career shooting seasons. The potential for them to revert somewhere back to the norm is pretty high. I'd want a minimum of 2 proven quality NBA starters, or one NBA star.

[fifteenth]

The issue is THJ and DFS are both almost soley reliant on 3pt shooting efficiency to remotely be capable NBA starters. MAYBE they keep up the trend, but they are both in their late 20's and just had complete anomoly career shooting seasons. The potential for them to revert somewhere back to the norm is pretty high. I'd want a minimum of 2 proven quality NBA starters, or one NBA star.

I don't think their reliance on the 3 is in issue. They're playing within their roles. NBA starters have roles, they aren't all "do everything" players, and three point shooting is a needed and accepted role in the NBA. So I don't buy that as an argument that THJ and DFS aren't capable NBA starters, however, if you want to argue that the Mavs starting lineup could use another ball handler and playmaker, I can get behind that. 

Also, I know others have been concerened about their career years not being sustainable. I'm not concerened about that because of what we know about each player. DFS's career year was a result of years of had work and incremental improvement. Before the season started I even posted that DFS's hard work and develoment were paying off, that he's now starter material, and that his three pointer had finally arrived. Then he proved it. For THJ, he had shown that he could shoot and that he was starter material in Atlanta. Then he spent his New York years in an awful offense taking bad shots. 

I think two new starters would be great because of our need for a second ball handler and playmaker. But if we can't make that happen, I think DFS and THJ are starter material.

[Scott41theMavs]

The issue is THJ and DFS are both almost soley reliant on 3pt shooting efficiency to remotely be capable NBA starters. MAYBE they keep up the trend, but they are both in their late 20's and just had complete anomoly career shooting seasons. The potential for them to revert somewhere back to the norm is pretty high. I'd want a minimum of 2 proven quality NBA starters, or one NBA star.

I don't think their reliance on the 3 is in issue. They're playing within their roles. NBA starters have roles, they aren't all "do everything" players, and three point shooting is a needed and accepted role in the NBA. So I don't buy that as an argument that THJ and DFS aren't capable NBA starters, however, if you want to argue that the Mavs starting lineup could use another ball handler and playmaker, I can get behind that.

Also, I know others have been concerened about their career years not being sustainable. I'm not concerened about that because of what we know about each player. DFS's career year was a result of years of had work and incremental improvement. Before the season started I even posted that DFS's hard work and develoment were paying off, that he's now starter material, and that his three pointer had finally arrived. Then he proved it. For THJ, he had shown that he could shoot and that he was starter material in Atlanta. Then he spent his New York years in an awful offense taking bad shots.

I think two new starters would be great because of our need for a second ball handler and playmaker. But if we can't make that happen, I think DFS and THJ are starter material.

My take (prior to the playoffs, when THJ was outed as a defensive cataclysm) was always that DFS and THJ were always fine if one of them was your fifth best starter, but that you were in trouble if you didn't have four better ones. The Mavs currently have two.

[Mapka]

82games.com shows THJ as best on the team in On/Off

NBA Stats shows that DP (+5.3), DFS (+4.0), and KP (+3.4) all had better on/off than THJ (+3.3) this year. 

But yes THJ had a good year in on/off. The fear I have vocalized is about how bad his on/off has looked when he isn't shooting 40% from three.

He had some Games, shooting 1/9 or so and nontheless gave the team something.
The problem starts if he, DFS and Maxi don't hit anything and KP is out.

[Kammrath]

For THJ, he had shown that he could shoot and that he was starter material in Atlanta. Then he spent his New York years in an awful offense taking bad shots. 

But that narrative is not 100% accurate. THJ had never shot higher than 35% on catch and shoot threes in his career, including wide open and open ones. This year he jumped 7% (!!!) on catch and shoot threes. So this year is a total anomaly for him as a shooter, even when looking at his good, open shots. 

DFS also jumped from 30%, 33%, 32% on catch and shoot threes to 39% this year. He was 34% on 18-19 on WIDE open ones and 41% this year on WIDE open ones. 

Point being BOTH players had CRAZY jumps in shooting open, catch and shoot threes. Is it sustainable? That is the $15-20M question.

[ItsGoTime]

For THJ, he had shown that he could shoot and that he was starter material in Atlanta. Then he spent his New York years in an awful offense taking bad shots. 

But that narrative is not 100% accurate. THJ had never shot higher than 35% on catch and shoot threes in his career, including wide open and open ones. This year he jumped 7% (!!!) on catch and shoot threes. So this year is a total anomaly for him as a shooter, even when looking at his good, open shots. 

DFS also jumped from 30%, 33%, 32% on catch and shoot threes to 39% this year. He was 34% on 18-19 on WIDE open ones and 41% this year on WIDE open ones. 

Point being BOTH players had CRAZY jumps in shooting open, catch and shoot threes. Is it sustainable? That is the $15-20M question.

Ya, I will continue to maintain that THJ is a good candidate to sell high if he can bring back a good core starter for the team. My favorite candidate for trade is OPJ which would be a pretty big upgrade IMO.

[Kammrath]

Ya, I will continue to maintain that THJ is a good candidate to sell high if he can bring back a good core starter for the team. My favorite candidate for trade is OPJ which would be a pretty big upgrade IMO.

[fifteenth]

For THJ, he had shown that he could shoot and that he was starter material in Atlanta. Then he spent his New York years in an awful offense taking bad shots. 

But that narrative is not 100% accurate. THJ had never shot higher than 35% on catch and shoot threes in his career, including wide open and open ones. This year he jumped 7% (!!!) on catch and shoot threes. So this year is a total anomaly for him as a shooter, even when looking at his good, open shots. 

DFS also jumped from 30%, 33%, 32% on catch and shoot threes to 39% this year. He was 34% on 18-19 on WIDE open ones and 41% this year on WIDE open ones. 

Point being BOTH players had CRAZY jumps in shooting open, catch and shoot threes. Is it sustainable? That is the $15-20M question.

Point taken on THJ, but when THJ shot 35% on catch and shoot, don't you think it was at a time when 35% was more acceptable. The whole league has been getting better at 3 pt shooting. I don't think my contention that he had shown that he could shoot is completely off. But, like I said, point taken. 

For DFS, I had hope for his 3 pt shooting because he had a stretch in 2018/2019 that made me think his hard work had paid off, and then as time went on his shot got wonky again. I already said this, but before the season ever started I posted that I saw evidence that he was ready take a big step forward in shooting. And I turned out to be right. 

However, I do agree that they haven't done it enough to be considered a sure thing.

[Kammrath]

Point taken on THJ, but when THJ shot 35% on catch and shoot, don't you think it was at a time when 35% was more acceptable. The whole league has been getting better at 3 pt shooting.

I randomly look at 15-16 and that year THJ ranked 202 in the NBA in catch and shoot threes at 35.3%. He was bested by marksman like Devin Harris, Tony Allen, Jared Cunningham, and Rajon Rondo, for example. This year that would have ranked 257. So yes, the NBA is getting better overall but that only means that THJ needs to get even better to keep up with the pack.

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For DFS,

I am much more confident in DFS staying the course than THJ. DFS has been refining and working on his shot for years and so I think comparing him now to his old self isnt totally fair. AND I think DFS brings much more to the table than catch and shoot three pointers.

[fifteenth]

I randomly look at 15-16 and that year THJ ranked 202 in the NBA in catch and shoot threes at 35.3%. He was bested by marksman like Devin Harris, Tony Allen, Jared Cunningham, and Rajon Rondo, for example. This year that would have ranked 257. So yes, the NBA is getting better overall but that only means that THJ needs to get even better to keep up with the pack.

I think this means you win, LOL. OK, you convinced me, THJ is doing something he's never done before. 

I am much more confident in DFS staying the course than THJ. DFS has been refining and working on his shot for years and so I think comparing him now to his old self isnt totally fair. AND I think DFS brings much more to the table than catch and shoot three pointers.

Yeah, and it would be really great if he was still refining his shot and his game. Maybe he hasn't peaked.

[DanSchwartzgan]

82games.com shows THJ as best on the team in On/Off

NBA Stats shows that DP (+5.3), DFS (+4.0), and KP (+3.4) all had better on/off than THJ (+3.3) this year. 

But yes THJ had a good year in on/off. The fear I have vocalized is about how bad his on/off has looked when he isn't shooting 40% from three.

Yeah, I'm aware.  That's why I pointed out it was 82games.  Their methodology is different.  They have the Offence 3.1 better when THJ is on than when he's off and the D is 2.3 better for a net of 5.4.

By their calculation Powell's net is 3.6, Finney's is 3.7 and KP's is 4.1.  In case you are wondering, Brunson is also positive at 3.0.  Wright is -6, Curry and Maxi are  -4.1.

[khaled1987]

The Mavs are succeeding with player-archetype combinations that don't work for other teams. Would they be even BETTER with more optimized fit? Or are their players just unique?

I think RC is a unique coach tbh, he is a genius specially on the offensive end. 
But RC also has "his" guys.  That is a key here. 

I don't know how we compare to other teams, but Mavs has history of going after players who has played here before, may be before RC himself but surely more with him. Barea, Burke, Harris, TC. 

Why I am saying this? Because I think this team might be worse with another coach, even if that coach is great one. But some better "on paper" fit might be worse with him too. 
This is one of the main reason I don't want any big change this off-season, Draft right and get someone useful from MLE while moving Wright away. 

I think players like DFS,MAxi & THJ are perfect fit for him, they just need to work on their Defense as a team, and learn how to close games.