DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[burekemde]

Are we a sure playoff team next season? Other teams have improved either from trade draft and getting injured players back. Memphis is going to be better, NO, GSW etc. 

Vegas has us as a top 4 playoff team. The Ringer think we are top 4. NBC has us at 6th behind GSW and Utah. CBS at 5. We shored up our biggest weaknesses, which was wing depth, and defense. We added a crazy enforcer which we needed. 

Last season we just made it but we should be more safe than that. IMO we are not a deep team and one injury from missing playoffs.

We were ravaged by injuries last year. Luka and KP, our literal backbones, both missed significant time. We had 2 season ending injuries on key role players in Powell and Brunson. We also had 2 non-existent players that combined played 69 minutes total in the playoffs. Despite this, the Mavs were easily in the playoffs. The difference between the 7th seed and the 8th seed last year was almost the same difference as the 7th seed and the 2nd seed. The Mavs were 4gb the 3rd seed. Nearly 8 games ahead the 7th. I wouldn't call that barely making it. Remember, that's with Luka missing 13 games, KP missing 17 games, and injuries galore all around. 


Luka/Brunson/JJ
THJ/Burke/Green/Terry
JRich/DFS/Iwundu
Kleber/Johnson/Bey
KP/Powell/Boban/WCS. 

We're almost 2-3 deep at every position. I admit we are light on bigman depth depending on how Powell looks. And I would still like to add another secondary playmaker. But those are luxuries, not necessities.

I like the strategy we had a good draft especially terry pick. We had decent trades improving us slightly. But did we make major improvement? Thats up for debate. If we improved slightly are we still a playoff lock, considering other teams improved a lot?

I think adding the kind of defender in Richardson would qualify as a major improvement. We weren't hurting for offense.  Bobby Karralla pointed out that if the Mavs lost 2.3 points per possession on offense, they would have still led the league in offensive efficiency by a wide margin. But if they saved 2.3 points per possession more on defense, they'd have jumped from the 18th ranked defense to 9th. Thats HUGE.

Mavs were one of the worst clutch teams in NBA history as well. They were 17-24 in clutch games. The only Western conference playoff team under .500. Despite that, the Mavs were still top 6 in overall team Net rating. 

Further, I think that yes, some WC playoff teams did improve. Lakers for one on paper did. Clips had some savvy moves. PHX probably improved the most. But other than that, who really made big leaps? GSW I figured would've been a lock, but now Klay is out. I still think they make it but not for sure top 5. Portland made a great trade for RoCo, but they then sign DJJ who couldn't get on the floor for Miami, post-achilles Rodney Hood, whatever's left of Melo,  Enes Kanter who couldn't be played in the playoffs cause he can't guard, and a flyer on Giles. Is that a major improvement from what they were? 

OKC isn't in the playoff race anymore so that's 1 freed spot. Houston is looking like they're about to implode with both Harden and WB wanting out. Even if they were to keep them, chemistry and lack of fit could see them taking a significant step back. Memphis is an interesting add, but I don't see Ja+JJJr beating out any of the previous teams. Minnesota looks like they can compete on paper but I'll have to see it to believe it that Towns+Russell can make a jump. 

Don't underestimate the brilliance of Luka Doncic. The Mavs have a formidable team as much as anyone in my eyes.

I do also think we have improved, and that we are a playoff team. But I do not think this is clear cut. I dont see Richardson as major improvement. Its not like this is a star compared to a rotational player we had on the roster earlier. He is better overall player than Curry, but the margin is not that big. Curry is a lot better shooter, Richardson better defender.

For all the rest, it depends how the picks go. I think Terry will be the game changer, but thats just my opinion. If all our picks do not deliver this season, which would be normal as it takes time to develop young players, and if Richardson is slightly better than Curry, the I do not believe we should consider our self lock for playoffs. It would be different case if we brought in a star player.

I do agree with your points, and I hope you are right.

There is also the element of going a step back in development from year to year. For instance if THJ reverses and shoots worse. In games where THJ's shooting was terrible, Curry was suddenly lights out. And vice versa in games where Curry struggled, thats the games we saw THJ excel. Will the same be with Richardson? We need elite shooting every game. In games where THJ will struggle, im reserved if Richardson can help us win the games in same way as Curry did. We will see. It will be different. I believe we will be better, but its hard to predict.

Also the Powell situation, we had a great start with him and he may be a much worse player if he lost a step.

Lots of considerations go into this. I do not believe we are a lock and we will compete for the playoffs and I do hope Lukas brilliance again gets us in playoffs.