11-15-2020, 11:26 PM
Interesting perspective from Hollinger on the Dennis/Danny trade. He doesn't have the same love for Schroder that some here have (nor the hate for Green). He thinks OKC eventually gets a couple of seconds for Green. Not sure what is more valuable...$5 million in the scenario where OKC buys him out, or a couple of seconds.
:Retaining the 27-year-old Schröder after this season is likely a much better investment than the 33-year-old Green.
However, the Lakers left money on the table, and you can see why once you look at this deal from the Thunder’s perspective. For OKC, this is an absolute no-brainer, as harvesting a late first-round pick for a non-All-Star with an expiring contract is about the best-case scenario.
Additionally, the Thunder will gain more draft equity out of this later. At some point, the rebuilding Thunder will almost certainly trade Green, too. He may not be worth a first-round pick, but he surely could command two decent seconds. Can you imagine him in Philadelphia? Milwaukee? Atlanta? The Thunder should be able to drive a pretty good bargain here.
In the meantime, there’s the little issue of Green projecting as a more valuable player than Schröder. Ignoring the specific situational need for L.A. that I presented above, BORG projects Green to be 2.73 points per 100 possessions better than replacement in 2020-21, compared to 1.78 for Schröder. The reason is simple: Green is just a massively better defender.
Also, secondarily, Schröder comes off what is by far the best season of his career, and one that was built in part on outlier 3-point shooting relative to the rest of his career. One should be at least somewhat skeptical that he can play another season at quite his 2019-20 level.
Finally, to the extent the Thunder are actually trying to win games this season, this deal clearly helps them. For as long as Green plays for the Thunder, he fits much better as a 3-and-D guard next to Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander than Schröder did.
From the Thunder’s perspective, then, this is a scream of a deal. They get a better player and a first-round pick and still will be able to convert Green into more draft equity sooner or later. In the meantime, now owning picks Nos. 25 and 28 in the first round, the Thunder are in a prime position to move up in the draft should an opportunity present itself."
:Retaining the 27-year-old Schröder after this season is likely a much better investment than the 33-year-old Green.
However, the Lakers left money on the table, and you can see why once you look at this deal from the Thunder’s perspective. For OKC, this is an absolute no-brainer, as harvesting a late first-round pick for a non-All-Star with an expiring contract is about the best-case scenario.
Additionally, the Thunder will gain more draft equity out of this later. At some point, the rebuilding Thunder will almost certainly trade Green, too. He may not be worth a first-round pick, but he surely could command two decent seconds. Can you imagine him in Philadelphia? Milwaukee? Atlanta? The Thunder should be able to drive a pretty good bargain here.
In the meantime, there’s the little issue of Green projecting as a more valuable player than Schröder. Ignoring the specific situational need for L.A. that I presented above, BORG projects Green to be 2.73 points per 100 possessions better than replacement in 2020-21, compared to 1.78 for Schröder. The reason is simple: Green is just a massively better defender.
Also, secondarily, Schröder comes off what is by far the best season of his career, and one that was built in part on outlier 3-point shooting relative to the rest of his career. One should be at least somewhat skeptical that he can play another season at quite his 2019-20 level.
Finally, to the extent the Thunder are actually trying to win games this season, this deal clearly helps them. For as long as Green plays for the Thunder, he fits much better as a 3-and-D guard next to Chris Paul and Shai Gilgeous-Alexander than Schröder did.
From the Thunder’s perspective, then, this is a scream of a deal. They get a better player and a first-round pick and still will be able to convert Green into more draft equity sooner or later. In the meantime, now owning picks Nos. 25 and 28 in the first round, the Thunder are in a prime position to move up in the draft should an opportunity present itself."