DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[cjeter24]

The theory on AG is pretty simple. He's always had good offensive metrics in area where Dwight Powell has good metrics like PNR. But he doesn't nearly enough plays for him ran despite getting starter minutes compared to Powell. Powell has way more volume as bench player in those areas. 

They basically use AG as a guy to camp out on the perimeter and spot up shoot. And he's about as an effective shooter as Powell but shoots way more 3s a game. In Dallas he would be heavy utilized as a PNR and cutter both of which he consistently has elite #s at in advanced metrics. Like 90th percentile. If Dallas likes Dwight, AG is him on steroids with way higher upside. It's an easy move to make if its so cheap and you do indeed love Powell's game if you are the MBT.

Ok, so I buy all of that, and I can tell you've done your homework on the guy. Here's the counter argument:

Fans tend to love super athletic guys like Gordon, even when they don't do all that well. Now, maybe you're right and Orlando is simply not implementing the player in an ideal way. But, the guys who work there are not morons, they're people whose entire lives revolve around professional basketball. I don't think "they don't know how to use him" should be our default position when he doesn't seem to play as well as we believe he should. I think it's a POSSIBLE explanation, but maybe not the most likely one. I mean, if you've been an exec in Orlando for the past several years, you've kind of been in the Aaron Gordon business, trying desperately to unlock the dude's potential. Their inability to do so is a big reason the franchise isn't in a great place right now.

A more plausible argument that's close to yours would be the glaring absence of a pick and roll ball handler on the roster. For whatever reason, they've really struggled to find a PG there, pretty much since Jameer Nelson signed in Dallas years ago. That is bizarre, for sure, and probably has a negative impact on several of their players. 

But in my humble opinion, what we're dealing with in Gordon is a dumb guy. It doesn't get talked about very much, and when it does it's usually framed in a nicer way, but my first thought anytime I see an underperforming NBA player with a lot of athletic ability (the kind that teams covet) is "that guy doesn't get it, does he?" 

What got me thinking this way initially was a Don Nelson quote about Raef Lafrentz back in the day. It was something like "for whatever reason, anytime we try to run something for him, he just finds a way to forget how to run the play." I'm paraphrasing from memory, but it was very close to that.

My overall point is that intelligence and focus matter in pro basketball, much like they matter in pro ANYTHING. How do we, as fans, judge this attribute in players? Really tough to do, though I feel pretty strongly that when players we expected big things from don't get the anticipated results (or even the anticipated playing time) that's kind of the smoke that comes from the "not smart enough" fire. Another indicator is when a player starts bouncing around from team to team a lot, though there could also be other reasons for this, obviously. 

Look, I clearly don't KNOW this about Gordon, and I could be 100% wrong. But it's interesting that the guy has been getable for 2-3 years now and nobody seems super into bringing him onto a good team. Maybe that's because Orlando has valued him too highly, but idk...I just have a feeling he's not very good.

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Having said all of the above, Gordon would certainly be above Tobias Harris on my list, but probably under Gobert, tbh. I believe strongly in my opinion that KP/Gobert is not a fit, but it's undeniable that Gobert is an impact player in the NBA. The same cannot be said for Gordon.

First off I'd like to say thank you for a detailed thought out post. Loving the conversation here! 

With your point about people in Orlando not being morons I agree. They aren't the Kings! However there are a lot factors that have caused AG to never live up to his potential. 

4 coaches in 6 seasons. And because he is a bit of a tweener each coach is going to use that guy differently. It's not a defined position and it's also important how they fit into the scheme. AG was extremely raw early on too so that doesn't help either. Vogel definitely helped him prove his game and you can actually started to see his advanced metrics in his 2nd year with Vogel. And they've continue to improve with Clifford. Clifford and Vogel are both good coaches despite any records might indicate.

However Vogel and Clifford are both coaches that love their big men and running an offense thru them. Heck Vogel just ran a 2 big lineup to a championship.  So again not bashing their coaching ability. That's problematic for AG who is a tweener that isn't a post up guy. And if you don't spread out the offense, you aren't going to be running PNR. And just in general with the old school style offenses Clifford and Vogel employ you don't see alot of screening in general. Compare that to the Mavs where you see a screen and often multiple ones on every halfcourt possession. That means PNR and cutting opportunities. It's much like the situation of putting Delon into an offense where it demands your guards to be great in the PNR. And Delon is incredibly mediocre there.  And I think Delon is a very solid player just an awful fit here. You'd hope that with a guy like AG he has enough talent to still find a ways to unlock his game. And this point the shooting which would probably really have him take his game to another level, still hasn't improved. Much like Powell btw. But Powell is utilized to his skillset correctly. 

I'm sure having a proper PG will help him as well. But he's putting up good metrics without a PG. Again the thesis of having AG explode in Dallas is that he's going to get alot of PNR opportunities. But he'll also have guards playing with him that excel there as you alluded to. 

I think the price has certainly been too high until recently for AG. He's basically Dwight Powell if Powell was getting 33-34 minutes a night and their per 36 numbers match up pretty close. But with inefficient high volume shooting too. The idea that he was somewhat productive but had high upside because he was so young still had alot of shine on it. Now he's basically a more athletic DP at double the cost. If you hate DP contract value, AG is even worse based on their play. 

I've been saying all this for YEARS. I'm going to be so excited to see AG finally get to the right system and coach for him sometime in the next few years, whether or not that is the Mavs.