11-04-2020, 09:39 PM
So I'll bite on saying Jrue will cost too much to acquire. I don't think he will cost nearly as much as you think. Or frankly that he should in a given year.
A couple of factors in play.
1. Jrue is expiring. That always shrinks the market for a player. To sum it up... He's not going to someone like the Hawks. You don't trade for a 30 year old guard on a rebuilding team and have any reason to think he stays.
2. Roster construction. Alot of good teams already have two guards. That rules out someone like Houston and Portland. I'll circle back to roster construction in a minute.
3. $$$$ 26 million is hard to salary match without giving up a major contributor. For most teams it'll require multiple good players. Plus a young asset or draft picks. At some point it becomes a situation where you aren't improving and the deal doesn't make sense. That's arguably the biggest factor at play. Additionally it'll be extremely tough for a good team other than the Heat to absorb enough salary to fit Holiday under the cap. Of course there is always the SNT to make the money work. I find that extremely unlikely in a cap matching trade like this. A team would have to SNT out to help and not receive anything in most scenarios. Extremely unlikely in this cap environment. You also have the tax line to worry about for a lot of teams.
So back to roster construction. Lets assume only a decently good team would be willing to trade for Jrue. That removes 11 teams. I count GS as a good team. Now remove 2 guard teams. Portland, Houston. Remove OKC, Indy for obvious reasons. Assuming Phx and Grizz have little interest due to youth and roster needs. You have 17 of 29 possible teams eliminated now.
Down to 12.
Clippers have 0 assets and old contracts to send back.
Bucks have 0 assets to send other than this years draft pick because the next 1st rounder they can trade is 2024 which they won't without knowing about Giannis. Bledsoe and cap filler of poor prospects just doesn't get it done.
Raptors simply don't have the money to match without trading away almost all of their team if they keep Van Fleet.I'm not sure they'd exchange Van Fleet and Powell for Holiday anyways. And they'd lose Ibaka in that scenario too.
Celtics can definitely make it work. And maybe I'm wrong about their interest. But I honestly think there guard rotation would take a hit by trading for Holiday. I don't think they are looking to make major changes there.
Heat can cap match. They lack the assets unless they are willing to trade Bam or Herro. That aint happening.
Warriors: Good luck having them take Wiggins back.
That leaves 76ers, Nets, Lakers, Nuggets, Utah, Dallas as the most likely teams.
76ers are a complete wildcard. They have enough to make a deal and the contracts do it. I honestly have no idea on what their plans are for roster building.
Nets have the contracts and assets to make a deal. Are they willing to include them tho? Rookie coach with a new team together for the first time and a couple of good youngish guard to pair with Kyrie.... I don't see this one but it's certainly possible.
If you don't think Mavs have enough, Lakers are out. They have even less. A late 1st this year with Kuzma and cap matching deals. If they liked Kuzma they would have made sure to get him last year.
Nuggets deal is super easy. Harris and MPJ. You can't compete with that. Or some variation of letting Grant and Millsap walk and squeezing him into cap space with picks. It's probably the biggest threat as far as monster haul. But I personally don't think Denver is trading for MPJ for an expiring player. Harris and Barton works money wise but I don't think that gets New Orleans enough and adding picks starts to hurt any further ability to improve or the contracts to do it. If Denver is willing to go one of these routes, you simply can't compete.
Jazz- Gobert for Jrue swap makes a lot of sense from an asset swap point if New Orleans is not dealing Jrue at the risk of losing him for nothing. I think that is the reason and this deal doesn't make sense if so. Conley being there with Mitchell makes it a mess tho too.
TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.
A couple of factors in play.
1. Jrue is expiring. That always shrinks the market for a player. To sum it up... He's not going to someone like the Hawks. You don't trade for a 30 year old guard on a rebuilding team and have any reason to think he stays.
2. Roster construction. Alot of good teams already have two guards. That rules out someone like Houston and Portland. I'll circle back to roster construction in a minute.
3. $$$$ 26 million is hard to salary match without giving up a major contributor. For most teams it'll require multiple good players. Plus a young asset or draft picks. At some point it becomes a situation where you aren't improving and the deal doesn't make sense. That's arguably the biggest factor at play. Additionally it'll be extremely tough for a good team other than the Heat to absorb enough salary to fit Holiday under the cap. Of course there is always the SNT to make the money work. I find that extremely unlikely in a cap matching trade like this. A team would have to SNT out to help and not receive anything in most scenarios. Extremely unlikely in this cap environment. You also have the tax line to worry about for a lot of teams.
So back to roster construction. Lets assume only a decently good team would be willing to trade for Jrue. That removes 11 teams. I count GS as a good team. Now remove 2 guard teams. Portland, Houston. Remove OKC, Indy for obvious reasons. Assuming Phx and Grizz have little interest due to youth and roster needs. You have 17 of 29 possible teams eliminated now.
Down to 12.
Clippers have 0 assets and old contracts to send back.
Bucks have 0 assets to send other than this years draft pick because the next 1st rounder they can trade is 2024 which they won't without knowing about Giannis. Bledsoe and cap filler of poor prospects just doesn't get it done.
Raptors simply don't have the money to match without trading away almost all of their team if they keep Van Fleet.I'm not sure they'd exchange Van Fleet and Powell for Holiday anyways. And they'd lose Ibaka in that scenario too.
Celtics can definitely make it work. And maybe I'm wrong about their interest. But I honestly think there guard rotation would take a hit by trading for Holiday. I don't think they are looking to make major changes there.
Heat can cap match. They lack the assets unless they are willing to trade Bam or Herro. That aint happening.
Warriors: Good luck having them take Wiggins back.
That leaves 76ers, Nets, Lakers, Nuggets, Utah, Dallas as the most likely teams.
76ers are a complete wildcard. They have enough to make a deal and the contracts do it. I honestly have no idea on what their plans are for roster building.
Nets have the contracts and assets to make a deal. Are they willing to include them tho? Rookie coach with a new team together for the first time and a couple of good youngish guard to pair with Kyrie.... I don't see this one but it's certainly possible.
If you don't think Mavs have enough, Lakers are out. They have even less. A late 1st this year with Kuzma and cap matching deals. If they liked Kuzma they would have made sure to get him last year.
Nuggets deal is super easy. Harris and MPJ. You can't compete with that. Or some variation of letting Grant and Millsap walk and squeezing him into cap space with picks. It's probably the biggest threat as far as monster haul. But I personally don't think Denver is trading for MPJ for an expiring player. Harris and Barton works money wise but I don't think that gets New Orleans enough and adding picks starts to hurt any further ability to improve or the contracts to do it. If Denver is willing to go one of these routes, you simply can't compete.
Jazz- Gobert for Jrue swap makes a lot of sense from an asset swap point if New Orleans is not dealing Jrue at the risk of losing him for nothing. I think that is the reason and this deal doesn't make sense if so. Conley being there with Mitchell makes it a mess tho too.
TLDR: The amount of teams with ability to create a better offer than Mavs is actually small. And if they won't include their big names. Mavs offer is extremely competitive.
Thank you for coming to my TED talk.