DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[omahen]

1.) FA doesn't work at all.

This is not a game, you are not working in environment where everything is certain. So you have to manage risks. There is a risk we will get nothing great in FA (GA is basically the only great option realistically available. What if he is not?). There is a very realistic outcome of the FA is we end up paying max to Hayward till his age 35 season. So when thinking about options, you think about risks. For example: risk of trading for Harris is GA will want to come and we will have to pay (let's say) Thybulle and 2 FRP to get rid of his contract. Risk of not taking Harris is GA doesn't want to come and we end up paying max to someone similar (or worse) while losing opportunity to be better in 2020/21. Positive thing about trading for him is he makes us considerably better in 2020/21, because we don't really sacrifice a lot to get him. I think decision is far from black and white, it is complex

4.) THJ regresses to under average starter.

I don't understand why this is relevant. THJ can stay as he is and Harris is still a better player. Considerably better, shall I say. Plus we get assets that add further value.

5.) Tobi fits better with us than with Philly.

What was wrong with him in Philly? He scored 20 ppg on high efficiency. THJ scored 15 ppg on lower efficiency. Plus Harris is at least a neutral defender, while THJ is negative. All of these Harris managed in a season that was worse than couple of previous ones. So there is considerable hope he can work much better in our system than Philly no spacing mess from last season. All in all, last year Harris is way better than any non KP/Luka player we have.

6.) Thybulle develops some surprise offensive game with us. 

Thybulle has all the tools to be an absolute elite defender, like top 5 in the league. DFS will never get near that despite all his effort. Thybulle shot 35 % from three. If he can keep the percentage and become elite defender, he is worth something in the range of 10-15 mil per season. I guess he will be (much) better version of DFS in 2 seasons max.

7.) We NEED #21 to upgrade #18 into a longterm starter.

#21 gives us options. Trade, trade up,.. I wouldn't go as far as to guess what they could be. So we can darft a guy to replace THJ in a starting line-up, trade for him, sign him with MLE,..