DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[cow]

Harris seems like a great dude, but his contract is atrocious.  Even if they took Powell and Wright, I'm going to need more than a 2nd and Korkmaz for that trouble.

20-21:  34.3m
21-22:  35.9m
22-23:  37.3m
23-34:  39.2m!

...a lot more.

I wonder if the team looks at those numbers on a net basis?  In 20/21 Harris is a wash against the outgoing salary.  In 20/21 you net out what you were going to pay Wright and Powell ($20mm) and Harris costs $16mm.  He's $26 million in 22/23 (netting just Powell) and he's a massive $39 million expiring deal in 23/24 (the same time KP expires).  So, on a four year basis, the extra net cost of Harris is $55mm or $14mm per year.  

The next question is whether he's worth the extra cost (and if not, does Korkmaz and a pick make up the difference).  The recent rankings from The Athletic put him in the same 38-80 tier as Gallinari, Hayward, Aldridge, Oladipo, Porter and Conley.  Harris is the youngest and among the healthiest the last two seasons.  He's also the highest paid by a wide margin.  All of those guys have warts but that is what you are probably looking at as it is hard to find a deal that makes sense for a top 38 guy.  To me, I'd want to convince THJ to opt-in before the draft so that the 21st pick could be brought into the picture instead of the future 2nd (maybe he agrees since he'd be going to a contender).  The value charts say 18 + 21 equals about #7 or so.  Now your talking.

Regardless of who gets paid what, the bottom line question is which team is better?

KP/T. Harris/DFS/Kork/Luka

or

KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka

Both teams still have WCS/Maxi/No one/Curry and Brunson off the bench.  There is also the pick(s), the MLE and possibly a trade of Jackson/31 to add to the roster.  Bear in mind also that Harris would work as a straight up trade for Giannis next summer.  If you are Milwaukee, do you let him go to Miami for free or do you take back Harris and stay competitive while he and Middleton are still in their primes.  Last thing, Korkmaz is an Excel guy if anyone cares.

I think we all forgot to factor in the trade kicker.  If you value flexibility, Harris destroys that as getting off his contract would be difficult compared to getting off of the Powell/Wright.  I like Harris a lot as I think he'd fit it swimmingly into our locker room culture and could be a solid contributor but his contract is insane.  It just seems like a desperate move and we shouldn't be desperate or else we'll end up where the Bucks are now.  To even entertain this trade, I'd want a future first.  And Speaking of the Bucks...

Their strategy if Giannis leaves is an interesting question.  I could see it going either (rebuild or trying to stay competitive) and Harris might be a fit for either of those scenarios. If it were me, I'd rebuild and absorb bad contracts to try and stock pile picks.  That means I'm selling Khris and Bledsoe and I'll absorb some terrible contracts (Wall and/or Harris) to try and stockpile picks (something the Mavs sorely lack).  

p.s.  I love you @"Kammrath"