DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Mapka]

Harris seems like a great dude, but his contract is atrocious.  Even if they took Powell and Wright, I'm going to need more than a 2nd and Korkmaz for that trouble.

20-21:  34.3m
21-22:  35.9m
22-23:  37.3m
23-34:  39.2m!

...a lot more.

I wonder if the team looks at those numbers on a net basis?  In 20/21 Harris is a wash against the outgoing salary.  In 20/21 you net out what you were going to pay Wright and Powell ($20mm) and Harris costs $16mm.  He's $26 million in 22/23 (netting just Powell) and he's a massive $39 million expiring deal in 23/24 (the same time KP expires).  So, on a four year basis, the extra net cost of Harris is $55mm or $14mm per year.  

The next question is whether he's worth the extra cost (and if not, does Korkmaz and a pick make up the difference).  The recent rankings from The Athletic put him in the same 38-80 tier as Gallinari, Hayward, Aldridge, Oladipo, Porter and Conley.  Harris is the youngest and among the healthiest the last two seasons.  He's also the highest paid by a wide margin.  All of those guys have warts but that is what you are probably looking at as it is hard to find a deal that makes sense for a top 38 guy.  To me, I'd want to convince THJ to opt-in before the draft so that the 21st pick could be brought into the picture instead of the future 2nd (maybe he agrees since he'd be going to a contender).  The value charts say 18 + 21 equals about #7 or so.  Now your talking.

Regardless of who gets paid what, the bottom line question is which team is better?

KP/T. Harris/DFS/Kork/Luka

or

KP/Powell/DFS/THJ/Luka

Both teams still have WCS/Maxi/No one/Curry and Brunson off the bench.  There is also the pick(s), the MLE and possibly a trade of Jackson/31 to add to the roster.  Bear in mind also that Harris would work as a straight up trade for Giannis next summer.  If you are Milwaukee, do you let him go to Miami for free or do you take back Harris and stay competitive while he and Middleton are still in their primes.  Last thing, Korkmaz is an Excel guy if anyone cares.

If they count like this, it would mean they think Wright and Powell would have an on and off court and trade opportunity value of exact Zero.  

And a year ago they thought their value is 20 Mio. That would be very concerning. 

Better POV would be to look how much of an overpay he is every season and if the compensation is worth the missed opportunitys. 

I think its very hard to set a value on Powell. Let's say 5 Mio overpay a year as the middle of his salary. 
I don't think Wright is really overpaid just a very bad fit. 

Tobi is overpaid about 15 Mio a year. 
So we would need as compensation a player about 10 Mio better than his contract.