DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[SleepingHero]

Kamm has watched one draft video too many  Totally unrealistic evaluation of the #18.

Ha!

My evaluation is that IF you hit on #18 (about 47% chance) then you get a contributor on a ROOKIE contract who fits the timeline of Luka....just a HUGE upside to this. 

But if you trade that chance, I want something that is not too risky. RoCo just gives me pause. Guys like him can hit a wall around 30 years old and his shooting percentages were already terrible in HOU (31% from three...yuck). I LOVE RoCo, it just makes me nervous. If the Mavs do it, I support it.

Where is that 47% chance coming from and how do you define "hit"? Are we talking about top 100 player in the league? Top 50? How many mpg can we realistically assume the #18 pick can get and contribute day 1 on a team that is looking to take the next step in the playoffs? 

While the pick CAN develop into something in the future, the Mavs are in a unique position. With Luka's meteoric rise to MVP caliber player, the Mavs are legit contenders. They can take the next step and make a deep playoff run next year just with Luka and KP. With that in mind, the room for mistakes are slim, and we can't afford to hope a rookie can come out and be a day 1 rotation player for a playoff team.

It rarely ever happens in the first year. The only ones that come to mind are Tyler Herro (13), Donovan Mitchell (13) Steven Adams (12) Kawhi Leonard (15), Paul George (10), as first round picks between 10-20 that contributed significantly to a playoff team in their rookie years. 

I don't think this draft has any all-NBA/all-star in the range of where we are picking. And we shouldn't overvalue this pick.
We'll see in time how wrong I am. Given the fact that the Mavs are one of the few contenders that can actually build with cap space and add needed help for their MVP candidate, the importance of the draft is reduce imo. Once Luka's Rose rule extension kicks in, then the Mavs should shift their focus away from free agency and cultivate through the draft. Now's the best time to leverage draft assets.