10-09-2020, 11:48 AM
(10-09-2020, 11:24 AM)KillerLeft Wrote: I didn't realize this would be such an involved, hot button issue. @ItsGoTime I love your passion. I think it's misguided in this instance.
Dwight Powell got that contract because the team wanted him here to play a large role, for a number of reasons. I see nothing, other than the injury and the chance that he won't be the same player as a result of it, that leads me to believe their stance on him has changed. You don't have to like it, but you not liking it doesn't really change what they think, does it?
The reason I brought up Powell starting as a factor was this: If it were up to me, I believe I'd be all in on a ONE BIG approach. That's where a guy like OPJ might fit in. The fact that they gave Powell that contract leads me to believe they viewed him as a starter, and while I thought for a while that maybe they'd changed their minds about two bigs, there are those pesky Harrell rumors, which, if true, would mean they very much do NOT agree with what I would do.
As you (and many of us) have pointed out, DP and WCS can definitely NOT play TOGETHER, nor can either of them play with Boban. They can both play with KP or Kleber just fine, however, especially on offense. So, if 60-80% of the game is meant to be played with two bigs, that absolutely frees up more minutes for WCS, especially in the regular season (he'd still need to earn the coach's trust to GET them, of course). I think he'd be in direct competition with Boban for the role of 4th big, or second big off of the bench, in that scenario, and I think it's pretty likely he'd win. If he's playing well, I can see him taking ALL of Powell's rest minutes eventually, even the ones Kleber gets now (Kleber can actually play with Powell OR instead of Powell. He's a nifty gadget to have).
If the plan is to start DFS and an OPJ type next to KP (I admit that's what I thought best after the Clippers series, but I'm starting to believe the Mavs don't, which is one of the reasons we got into it about OPJ the other day) then that would signal that they believe that's their main, default approach. In that scenario, Kleber still gets minutes WITH KP, as would Powell, but far fewer of them, imo. And, they would BOTH probably still be ahead of WCS on the list of KP bench minute getters. There is very little room for WCS to break through in this scenario, imo.
The off season hasn't even started yet, so many things could change, but if they start the season with all five of those guys (Porzingis, Powell, Kleber, WCS and Boban) on the roster, I'd take that as a STRONG indicator that they're planning on using two bigs whenever they can. Yes, in either scenario (starting with two bigs or one), they of course want to maintain the flexibility and option to go the opposite way when needed, but that's not really germane to this conversation. Salary structure wise, they have to decide on one or the other as the MAIN option, and that is very relevant when thinking of either Powell or WCS salary value. THEY saw Powell as a really cheap starter when they signed him. Right now, THEY probably see WCS as a slightly expensive 3rd center, as he's more than a minimum contract. He makes less than Boban, so it's possible they are thinking "hmmmm" about BOBAN'S future here. I'll give you that.
What I definitely DO NOT see is a situation wherein Powell is at 100% health and finds himself competing with WCS for his own job. If he's still hurt, or if the injury robs him of some of what made him effective, then sure. But if he's as good as he was early this year, there's not a chance in hell. I think WCS is good insurance for what Powell brings that they obviously value very highly. Had he been on the roster since training camp, I think he would've seamlessly moved right into Powell's role (though off of the bench, probably) when Powell got hurt.
Now, what MIGHT end up proving you correct about all of this is the looming 2021 situation. If they decide at any point between now and the trade deadline to go all in on cap space, I'd think Powell would need to move, especially since the guy they'd really want in that scenario would absolutely be coming to take his job. In that case, yes, having WCS here (and on a small, expiring contract) is going to come in handy.
But without that variable? Just comparing the players and saying "which do we like better for our team?" Man, I just can't look at it from any angle and not reach the conclusion that it's Powell's job to lose, and that the Mavs want him to succeed.
Great summary of the siutation. I'll add one item that sparks lots of questions in my mind.
I'm curious about how the KP surge post Powell injury impacts the Mavs thinking and how it impacts what we, regardless of what the Mavs think, feel like is a best case lineup scenario. Does post-DP-injury KP suggest that KP and Powell should not play together much? Does post-DP-injury KP suggest that the one big model is the way to go for our starting lineup, and that Powell and Maxi should be our two big bench? And also does KP's injury, combined with all of the above, suggest that KP's minutes should be kept under 30 or so and that KP and DP should basically be a platoon, with each having a chance to play with Luka? That's an expensive platoon, and may limit each player's minutes too much, so maybe the platoon wouldn't be a total platoon. Maybe they just limit their minutes together with something like KP 30, DP 28, where they just play 4 minutes together.
The thing that is a possible linchpin in finding answers to these questions, is the answer to another question. Can KP and DP learn to play together such that KP is not relegated to spot up shooter status, while the primary action of the offense revolves around the Luka/DP pnr? Can the Mavs build an offense, with KP and DP on the floor at the same time, that utilizes everyone's strengths, and gives KP a large enough role?
I do not know the answers to any of these questions, but I think that what actually happens depends on how these questions get answered in training camp and on the court in real games.