DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[DanSchwartzgan]

• [b]Who might be gone:[/b] Tim Hardaway Jr. (free agent), Boban Marjanovic (free agent), Justin Jackson (free agent) and Willie Cauley-Stein (free agent)
  
  

But Dallas does have expiring contracts in Wright ($8.5 million) and Finney-Smith ($4.0 million) along with team-friendly deals in Powell, Curry and Kleber to make the maneuvers possible.

It may be time to explore Plan: Have-It-Both-Ways in more detail.  This is different than Plan Powder where you just clear cap space an hope.  The idea here is optionality.  Yes, we want to improve in 2020.  Yes, we'd like rights to good players beyond 2020.  But, we'd like the option to move on if something better comes along.  Given the numbers from Bobby Marks, we can't take on any new long term salary and in fact need to get rid of some 2021 salary at some point.  You would keep THJ on the roster (no extension) in plan HIBW's.  You can let him go if Giannis says yes.  But, he's a useful player who could be retained if Freak goes elsewhere.

Some data points...I've replaced two of the minimum slots in the numbers Marks put out with $898,310 (what Claxton signed for at #31 last year) and the $2.97 cap hold on WCS.  Keeping WCS fits the Have It Both Ways plan because Willie's hold is cheap and he can be let go of if necessary.  So, the roster as it stands is KP, Powell, Luka, Maxi, Wright, Curry, DFS, Brunson, 18, 31 and WCS plus two minimum cap holds.  Out are Jackson, THJ and Boban.  We are now about $17mm shy of a $32.7mm max slot for Giannis.

The concepts from here are:

1.  No multi-year guarantees for the MLE.  You can do team options for years two and three (to have it both ways).  This probably takes you out of contention for the best MLE players available.   

2.  Use your picks...especially #31 which is less expensive than a vet minimum.  You aren't going for the top MLE players, so using some of it to sign #31 to a 3 year deal isn't a problem.

3.  You have to trade $17mm in salary at some point.  It could certainly be right after Giannis says yes.  If you clear some or all of that space now, you have to take back expiring contracts and if possible, an expiring contract that improves the team if you decide to keep him.  

4.  Imagine your team post Giannis when making roster decisions.  GA is a PF who also gets some time as a small-ball center.  That position will probably go into which salary you trade away.  

5.  Pay attention to Agent relationships.  GA is represented by Octagon.  So, we won't be crapping on Seth Curry to bring in Giannis.  Other clients include Satoransky, Schroder, Culver, Anunoby, Adebayo, DiVincenzo, Solomon Hill, Culver, Monte Morris and Treveon Graham.

Some of the things we've talked about don't fit Plan HIBW's.  Wright for Thad Young is out.  Satoransky and his $5mm partial guarantee is also probably out.  OPJ, on the other hand, is the perfect HIBW's deal.  Big expiring contract AND good enough that you'd want to keep him if GA doesn't come here.  Snell works here.  We aren't talking stars.  More likely overpaid rentals.  Aldridge and Gibson are other possibilities.  Frank N. is a risky HIBW's move.  You wouldn't make the QO.  So, if he plays really well and you want to keep him, you will need cap room to do so.

As to the MLE, it could certainly be one year of Burke.  Personally, I'd rather take a flyer on Josh Jackson (over-pay with one year guaranteed).  RHJ on a one year overpay would also work.  Recall that you spent some of the MLE on #31, so this isn't Paul Millsap getting the entire MLE.  This is someone with some upside agreeing to a short deal for $7-$8mm.

The trickiest part of Plan HIBW's is the "who" and "when" part of getting rid of $17mm worth of salary.  Half of that is pretty easy.  There are tons of Wright or Wright plus Jackson deals floating around.  If you aren't giving up your pick you aren't getting anyone fantastic (Snell and Gibson were mentioned earlier as expiring deal who might provide more than Wright and Jackson).  But, if you want to get to OPJ leve, you have to include someone else.  I think it would be Maxi.  That combo gets you within $63,000 of hitting the max slot number in 2021.  I get that we all love Maxi, but trading Seth violates #5 above and no team is taking on Powell without seeing him in action.  That leaves Maxi and Wright as the path to $32.7mm (and Giannis plays Maxi's position).  It doesn't have to be right now.  You could certainly wait until Giannis says yes.  But if expiring OPJ and THJ and one year guarantee Josh Jackson are the ideal HIBW's plan, then Maxi is probably the cost.  

That trio is probably improvement over Wright/Jackson and Maxi (and you kept  your picks).  They are good players if you end up keeping them.  But, not so great that you wouldn't help them pack if Giannis said yes. 

KP/WCS/Boban
OPJ/Powell
DFS/Josh Jackson
THJ/Curry/Lee
Luka/Brunson