09-11-2020, 08:19 AM
I pulled out my trusty spreadsheet so I could play around with the 2021 cap impact of some of our ideas. A few thoughts:
A S/W of Wright in 21 would cost $2.8mm and save $5.7mm. Are we sure we want to pay to trade him somewhere? I mean, maybe if that someone is expiring and we can save the $2.8mm. One of the benefits of trading Wright for T. Young (or Satoransky) is the fact they are only partially guaranteed. But partial guarantee is more expensive than the S/W and don't help with a Plan Powder scenario.
THJ will probably wait until after the draft to exercise his option. So, all of these THJ plus a pick deals are probably not going to happen. If he extends, he would have to agree to an extend and trade.
I think #18 will make $2,597,000 in 21. If the team uses part of the MLE to sign #31, I think that will cost about $1,738,571. If WCS opts in for 20, his 2021 cap hold will be $2,972,264 (very valuable to control him for this small amount...to him and us). That is about $7.3mm for those guys. Add Brunson and it is $9mm for the two picks, WCS and Brunson (again assuming WCS opts in). I think the odds of Giannis moving by trade (Jimmy Butler) are much greater than by signing into cap space. If so, low cost value contracts are important.
The following calculations assume we make both picks and keep the hold on WCS:
If we remove THJ from the cap and S/W Wright, we have about $36mm in cap room in 2021 on a $125mm cap (there is certainly a risk the cap will be less than that).
If we put THJ down for $15mm and S/W Wright we have about $22mm in room. Trade Wright for an expiring deal and we have about $25mm in room.
Here's the rub with Plan Powder. If we hold out for max space, we are basically trading 1. THJ, the 2. the 2020 MLE and 3. an alternate player we could trade for in 2020 for that max player. Other than Giannis, who are we willing to make that deal for? If the idea is to add a $20mm player in 2021 (while retaining THJ), couldn't we try to spend that same money (through trade) in 2020? OPJ is on the list as a potential good starter among 2021 FA's. Why not get him a year early. Is there a path to FVV or Bogdanovic through S&T AND then still be able to use the MLE? Short of Giannis, I don't see giving up THJ for two $17mm players in 2021 as one will simply replace THJ.
I think the better plan, once I looked at the numbers, is Plan Powder Be Damned. You have Wright, Jackson and Lee who can be combined for a pretty large contract (thank you Tyler). I would probably look at Lee at about $8mm (basically $5mm from Cuban and the Vet Min combined so that the net cost would be Vet Min to the acquiring team). That gets you into the range of a lot of the big dollar trade names we've discussed (or FA's like FVV and Bogdan). We have plenty of stand still shooters (THJ and Curry) and traditional bigs (KP, Maxi, Powell and presumably WCS). We need a playmaker who can also play off the ball and cover the other team's best guard (a better Wright or a better Burke). And, we need a Power Wing who defends and hits 3's (a better DFS so that DFS can be a super sub). Add those two guys and this is top 3/4 right now. Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?
A S/W of Wright in 21 would cost $2.8mm and save $5.7mm. Are we sure we want to pay to trade him somewhere? I mean, maybe if that someone is expiring and we can save the $2.8mm. One of the benefits of trading Wright for T. Young (or Satoransky) is the fact they are only partially guaranteed. But partial guarantee is more expensive than the S/W and don't help with a Plan Powder scenario.
THJ will probably wait until after the draft to exercise his option. So, all of these THJ plus a pick deals are probably not going to happen. If he extends, he would have to agree to an extend and trade.
I think #18 will make $2,597,000 in 21. If the team uses part of the MLE to sign #31, I think that will cost about $1,738,571. If WCS opts in for 20, his 2021 cap hold will be $2,972,264 (very valuable to control him for this small amount...to him and us). That is about $7.3mm for those guys. Add Brunson and it is $9mm for the two picks, WCS and Brunson (again assuming WCS opts in). I think the odds of Giannis moving by trade (Jimmy Butler) are much greater than by signing into cap space. If so, low cost value contracts are important.
The following calculations assume we make both picks and keep the hold on WCS:
If we remove THJ from the cap and S/W Wright, we have about $36mm in cap room in 2021 on a $125mm cap (there is certainly a risk the cap will be less than that).
If we put THJ down for $15mm and S/W Wright we have about $22mm in room. Trade Wright for an expiring deal and we have about $25mm in room.
Here's the rub with Plan Powder. If we hold out for max space, we are basically trading 1. THJ, the 2. the 2020 MLE and 3. an alternate player we could trade for in 2020 for that max player. Other than Giannis, who are we willing to make that deal for? If the idea is to add a $20mm player in 2021 (while retaining THJ), couldn't we try to spend that same money (through trade) in 2020? OPJ is on the list as a potential good starter among 2021 FA's. Why not get him a year early. Is there a path to FVV or Bogdanovic through S&T AND then still be able to use the MLE? Short of Giannis, I don't see giving up THJ for two $17mm players in 2021 as one will simply replace THJ.
I think the better plan, once I looked at the numbers, is Plan Powder Be Damned. You have Wright, Jackson and Lee who can be combined for a pretty large contract (thank you Tyler). I would probably look at Lee at about $8mm (basically $5mm from Cuban and the Vet Min combined so that the net cost would be Vet Min to the acquiring team). That gets you into the range of a lot of the big dollar trade names we've discussed (or FA's like FVV and Bogdan). We have plenty of stand still shooters (THJ and Curry) and traditional bigs (KP, Maxi, Powell and presumably WCS). We need a playmaker who can also play off the ball and cover the other team's best guard (a better Wright or a better Burke). And, we need a Power Wing who defends and hits 3's (a better DFS so that DFS can be a super sub). Add those two guys and this is top 3/4 right now. Other than Giannis, what is the point in waiting?