DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[SleepingHero]

I love KP's upside. But you can't really call KP's injury concerns overblown IMO. He does not play anywhere near as physical as some of the guys his injury records is compared to. Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are players who score way more through contact in the paint than KP, who actively avoids contact.

I only call it overblown given the severity of his injuries. He's had only 1 injury everyone would agree would be major. And it occurred during a contact play where KP drove and dunked all over Giannis' face. His other knee injury occurred again when Morris (Or Zubac, forgot) landed on his knee falling to the ground. Both contact plays.

Other than that, KP has only missed time due to general soreness of areas. But overall he's been more available than most. Over the course of his career he's been available 77% of the time. Not great. But that number isn't low enough to even consider trading KP because of the production he brings. Conversely, Joel Embiid's available 65% of the time. AD is 80%. Etc. 

There are a bunch of instances where I'd trade KP. The first one would actually be for Giannis. That's in the unlikely scenario that Giannis basically refuses to sign the supermax and declares he wants to leave. If he does want to leave, I could actually see a scenario where he feels like he doesn't want to leave the Bucks empty handed and gives them the opportunity to actually get something in return. Trading KP for Giannis might seem silly since you could get him for nothing in FA, but if you could trade for him with the guarantee he'd sign the extension, you've removed KP's contract and the real injury risk from the books, while still giving yourself the opportunity to potentially free up enough space get another FA at the end of the season like a Jrue Holiday. With a Luka/Giannis combo, eveyone else is making up the numbers really, that duo is basically dominating on their own for 10 years.

Trading KP for Giannis is one of the few trades I would make, because of how hilariously lopsided it'd be. Trading a 1x all-star big man for a 2xMVP and DPOY in his prime is lopsided. Of course if Giannis signs the extension and is here for 5 years, then I'd make that trade faster than the speed of light. Luka X Giannis is an even more unstoppable duo than Luka X KP. The only question, and one that you touched upon, is that if Giannis is ready to leave MIL, he probably has a good idea of where he wants to go. If he was willing to sign an extension to be in Dallas, that means that he would theoretically choose Dallas in free agency. Thus making the move to trade KP FOR Giannis kinda dumb, because you could have all 3. 

The other trade scenario would be for Bradley Beal. Similar situation. Bring in another elite scorer and ball handler, who's game is likely elevated by Luka, and you still have the ability to move another piece or two to free up space to go after someone like Gobert in FA if you want a defensive anchor to replace KP. With scorers of the caliber of Luka and Beal, playing 5 out is less important IMO, Gobert is out constantly setting picks for both of them.

Now here is where we differ. I would not trade KP for Beal. Beal is an electric 2. And can score in bunches. A dude that would fit perfectly here alongside KP (and Luka). Not instead of in my opinion.  Trading KP, a dude who put up 23/10 on 44/37/80 in the last 34 games of his season for a guy that put up some incredible scoring (30ppg) in the same amount of games as KP would at best be a wash.  Is the Luka/Beal drastically better than Luka/KP? Maybe on the offensive end, but defensively they'd be much worse. And to try to replicate the defense by signing Gobert to a max contract would be drastically worse since effectively we split up KP into 2 max players that do the same things he does. 

If I was the Mavs I'd be doing everything I could to nab Beal from Washington to pair with Luka and KP. He'd be a perfect fit to round out the team. But to give up KP for Beal would at best be a lateral move. 

There is easily enough of an injury risk with KP to where he is clearly tradeable for certain high level players, I'm sure there's others you'd trade him for, but the above two are elite level players who actually may become available. He's also 25 and coming into his prime, but has never really put together a great season that really validates his talent level, hence we constantly talk about what he can do, or his potential. I get there's reasons for that, but it becomes less of an interesting argument the more you have to keep referencing potential for a player as they start to move into their mid-late 20's.

And I believe we are in agreement though. There IS an injury risk with KP. I believe the risk is a bit overblown given that he's only had 1 major injury in his career. The major injury occurred in a contact play. And all other injuries were general soreness. And to avoid injuries is impossible. It's apart of the game and short of Lebron James (who showed he was human last season) every single player gets them. Regardless of the risk, I believe he's worth it given the spectacular production he has shown this season alone. Which is exactly the same thought process that's applied with guys just as much if not more of an injury risk around the league like Kawhi Leonard or Joel Embiid. 

With that said, there are a few guys I'd trade KP for. Giannis being one. Kawhi being another. However the list of players that would net a return that is an clear cut improvement over KP is small. So small that it's unrealistic and counter-productive given that we're trying to take the next step in contending.