DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Dundalis]

Am I the only person that would trade KP.

Yes. 

I am in the minority that thinks KP injury concerns are a bit overblown. He's had only 1 major injury his entire career, which was an ACL tear where Giannis landed on him.  

Sure KP has had a lot of little things in his short career, stuff that keeps him out 2-10 games a season. But looking at his overall career, he really hasn't been that unavailable. Rookie year 72/82 games played (88%). Next year 68/82 (83%). 48/82 (59%) ACL year. Then sat out the entire year, but we all know the Mavs intentionally kept him out in a lost year to protect their investment. Then COVID year he played 57/75 games (76%). KP has played in more career games than Joel Embiid. He played more games than him this season too. He played in more games than Paul George, and the exact same amount of games as Kawhi Leonard. Anthony Davis only played 5 more than him this year.  Nobody is exclaiming that the Clips should trade either one their guys. Even though that Leonard is guaranteed to miss at least 20 games a season due to his quad. Why is there no narrative over that? Because Kawhi is worth it and has shown up in the playoffs. KP didn't really get a chance to show his availability this year. He got questionably ejected game 1 where he was also injured. He played in games 2, and 3 on a torn meniscus, and the Mavs evoking a familiar choice ala Dirk in 03, chose to shut him down even if it meant conceding a series that could've gone either way. An injury by the way that was another contact injury. Except luckily this one, as knee injuries go, is absolutely nothing. 

I'll concede that KP is all but a given to miss 10-15 regular season games, but given his production, that is a small cost. I'd take a dude that is 7'3 that can average 30/10 with incredible defense and range. You can't avoid contact injuries. They're apart of the game and trying to find a bulletproof player is impossible. Even iron man Dirk fell victim to contact injuries. The only things that have seriously stopped KP has been contact injuries and bad luck. 

All the while he's such a unique player that it makes the injury risks (no matter how big or small) worth it. He's a 7'3 guard. He makes small ball possible but without giving up size. Trading KP would be a mistake. The list of guys that'd make the trade a clear win for the Mavs is so short that it's unrealistic. He earned the moniker "Unicorn" for a reason.

I love KP's upside. But you can't really call KP's injury concerns overblown IMO. He does not play anywhere near as physical as some of the guys his injury records is compared to. Joel Embiid and Anthony Davis are players who score way more through contact in the paint than KP, who actively avoids contact. The 19% of the overall FGA made by KP at the rim is ridiculously low for a 7+ footer (Dirk's was low also, but this is partly why he was able to avoid serious injuries, plus he was way less vertically gifted compared to KP and a much better shooter). Therefore the context of his injuries is more concerning I think. It also contributes to the fact his overall TS has been garbage his whole career.

There are a bunch of instances where I'd trade KP. The first one would actually be for Giannis. That's in the unlikely scenario that Giannis basically refuses to sign the supermax and declares he wants to leave. If he does want to leave, I could actually see a scenario where he feels like he doesn't want to leave the Bucks empty handed and gives them the opportunity to actually get something in return. Trading KP for Giannis might seem silly since you could get him for nothing in FA, but if you could trade for him with the guarantee he'd sign the extension, you've removed KP's contract and the real injury risk from the books, while still giving yourself the opportunity to potentially free up enough space get another FA at the end of the season like a Jrue Holiday. With a Luka/Giannis combo, eveyone else is making up the numbers really, that duo is basically dominating on their own for 10 years.

The other trade scenario would be for Bradley Beal. Similar situation. Bring in another elite scorer and ball handler, who's game is likely elevated by Luka, and you still have the ability to move another piece or two to free up space to go after someone like Gobert in FA if you want a defensive anchor to replace KP. With scorers of the caliber of Luka and Beal, playing 5 out is less important IMO, Gobert is out constantly setting picks for both of them.

There is easily enough of an injury risk with KP to where he is clearly tradeable for certain high level players, I'm sure there's others you'd trade him for, but the above two are elite level players who actually may become available. He's also 25 and coming into his prime, but has never really put together a great season that really validates his talent level, hence we constantly talk about what he can do, or his potential. I get there's reasons for that, but it becomes less of an interesting argument the more you have to keep referencing potential for a player as they start to move into their mid-late 20's.