DAL OFFSEASON: Trade & FA | Mavs "mostly done...but you never know."

[Scott41theMavs]

Hi Scott, the edit you made to my post displays a significant misunderstanding of my point. Like way, way off. Not even sure where to go from here, except to double down on the (obvious) point that going into this off-season with the mindset of "two new starters or bust" is probably the most risky approach they can take.

That's EXACTLY how Mayo/Collison/Kaman happened. They felt like they had to "do something" and that's the something they were able to do. The difference is that at that time, they might have been correct about that. THIS team doesn't HAVE to do anything.

You love the Mavs, so I'm not mad, but you should really work on your nuance skills. Nowhere have I said that the plan should be to maintain cap space indefinitely as a rule. However, I would certainly prefer that to Mayo/Collison/Kaman, as you put it.

It's really all about them having a plan, at this point. If there are multiple targets for 2021 that they believe are viable and fit, they'd be stupid to jeopardize that, UNLESS (big unless there) they see an even better path that differs. Since they've done the hard part already, drafting Luka and adding KP, then it's really about identifying what they need, when and how players will be available, and the most likely way they can be acquired.

Since they don't have picks to trade and the vast majority of players on the roster are actually useful contributors (but not the type that are valuable in trades), then it seems like 2021 is their best shot at acquiring talent, whether that be a 3rd start, 2-3 GREAT role players, whatev.

I'm not saying they should do nothing this off season no matter what, or even approach things with that mindset. I think you look at every way you possibly can to improve your team. I'm just saying there are WAY worse things that can happen this time around than failing to acquire two new starters. This should be obvious to anyone who has followed the team and sport for as long as you have.

KL, I want to think like you do, but my head and the historian in me tell me I have to be more with cow on this.

We will likely never know exactly what happened last off-season. Was it that the MBT had no interest in any of the major (i.e., the 20 or so best) FAs in last summer's class? If that's the case, it's befuddling and concerning, and indicates that they had far less confidence in Luka than they should have and thus were waaaayyyy off their timeline. Was it that they thought that Kemba was a done deal and had no pivot when it didn't come through? That doesn't look good for them either. Or, was it that not a single one of those FAs would give them a serious look? That's what Occam's Razor says, and I don't think it's possible to argue that that isn't crushingly damning and a very stiff indictment of their negotiating skills. Whether it's Carlisle, or that Cuban and Donnie are that bad at the pursuit, I think it should give grave pause indeed to any presumption that, because we have Luka here, historical reality is going to be radically transfigured and we're going to get the big fish or fishes in a year. I don't know that that's the case regarding the summer of 2019, but let's put it this way - the alternative is believing they were pretty genuinely content to go into 2019-20 without a real NBA starting lineup. Gads. If that's the case, were they freaking tanking, and Luka screwed it up?

I think it's impossible to understand my position on what this team should do now without the agreed-on premise that 1) superstars win championships, 2) Luka is a superstar who is, this very day, ready to contend for a championship, and 3) front offices with at least minimal competence and vision are going to mortgage precisely zero of the years in which their superstars are healthy and able to contend for the sake of the future, even if it's just a single season.

Let me state my position about the current roster right now:

Luka is the legend.
KP is Robin, but he might have to be Batgirl if he can't stay healthy.

GAP.

THJ is good enough to be a sixth man on a Luka-led team. He is obviously a better player than that overall with what he brings offensively (the fourth or perhaps even third best player on a contending team, assuming you have defense elsewhere), but you can't have any other players who aren't plus defenders in the starting lineup if Luka is in it. Timmy's going to command more money than the Mavs can afford for his long-term role, and is not going to be an effective part of the lineup next year for the Mavs if they want to contend. I have no problem trading him for a rent-a-player who fits our starting lineup better, because if the goal is powder in 2021 and/or contention in both 2020-21 and 2021-22, we're far better off without THJ. Bottom line is, Timmy's non-fit on a Mavs team serious about contending means that the GAP is bigger.
DFS - A reasonable starter if you have four better players next to him in the starting lineup, but better on the bench.

Curry and Maxi - Love both, neither has any business starting in this league.
Brunson - Strongly like his game, but his Wright-itis (can't really play well with Luka) is very understated on this board. Would be nice to keep, but might have trade value and could be spent for the right target. Not a starter if Luka is healthy, period.
Burke - Obviously in flux. Good enough on offense to be a starter, but not on defense. Would arguably be a superior sixth man to THJ.
Bobi - I think he has a role on this team which is very valuable for the size of his contract, but a spot player due to his defensive deficiencies. Should be pencilled in for years to come and never traded due to the locker room value with Luka.
WCS - Cannot start in a Carlisle offense because he can't hit threes, but he should be our bench big next year, ahead of Bobi. We'll see if he opts in (bet he does) and if the Mavs keep him (less certain).
Powell - I hated his lack of interior defense and rim protection (his perimeter D is actually not that bad, but he's a ***big,*** dammit) before he got injured. Unless his lateral movement, leaping and running ability are completely unaffected by the most devastating injury in sports, he's going to be worse than worthless at that size of contract. In any event, I have read SBJ say that we have to plan around him being on roster next year, when I think that's completely silly, since he won't be active unless the 2020-21 season starts in April or later (an imprecise statement, but you know what I'm getting at).
Wright - Virtually everyone wants him gone now, and I believe he does still have value in trade in this league based on his prior years.
Jackson - Should never play another non-garbage time minute for the Mavs. I'd rather they trade him than waive him, obviously, but they need his roster spot.
JJB - The Mavs don't want him back as a player.

I believe the Mavs could be closer to reasonable contention simply by trading their trade pieces (absolutely including THJ) for two average (but defensively capable) NBA starters who expire in 2021 because that would be better than what they have. I think that anyone who disagrees with that statement elephantinely overrates our roster outside of Luka and KP (all of them outside arguably DFS are NBA bench players, people - or way below average starters, same thing). If they're going to aim that low, they shouldn't have to include their pick in trade, and can draft someone projected to eventually be a starter and develop him from the bench (give him minutes, RC, or we'll rip your Johnson off), and use Mayo/Collison/Kaman vet min players (or good value contract players, if they can get a couple using the MLE) to fill out the rest of the bench (MCK players are fine, as long as you aren't fatuously and wastefully counting on them to be your starters). I might be okay with that. The only real problem with that approach is that, if the MBT are really as horrible at landing great free agents as I truly believe they are, the players you sign in 2021 might not be much better than the Tweedle-Dee and Tweedle-Dum expirers you let walk, and may even be weaker. The name of the game is, you don't mortgage seasons, and this is must be the absolute worst-case scenario for 2020-21. No THJ, no standing pat.

I would still like to see the Mavs *not* shy away from longer-term contracts (whether trade, sign-and-trade, and MLE) if they're priced right. Players on reasonable contracts can always be traded without adding assets. First off, the Mavs have always done their best team-building via trade (even Dirk and Luka involved draft-day trades!), and I think it would be foolish to move away from that paradigm. Second, nearly all of the worthwhile free agents last summer went to teams who didn't have cap room, but had tradeable assets. If Luka really is a draw and Carlisle isn't a deal breaker, then FAs will come here whether the Mavs have cap room or not. And they can have a decent team in the meantime. The only rule, if 2021 FAs are so key to the future, is no albatross contracts. But furthermore, 2021 free agents *aren't* the future. Freaking Luka is the future, and you keep the man happy from here on out, and that means putting a team on the floor that can compete, year-in and year-out until he retires. Starting in 2020-21.