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A Few Thoughts on Mavs 111, Clippers 126
#1
Mavs Hang With Clips for 3.5 Quarters
Game Closer than Scoreline Would Indicate

Well, we knew the Clippers were the Mavs’ Kryptonite. At least our boys held on for most of the match. 


Game Story

Seth Curry was still out with his “sore right leg.” (What is that?) Boban took his place in the starting lineup. For the Clippers, Montrezl Harrell was still out for personal reasons, and Patrick Beverley sat with a calf strain. 

The score difference remained in single digits during the first period. It was a low-scoring quarter for both sides, and the Mavs trailed 22-23 at the buzzer. 

Much of the same in the second, with the Mavs holding small leads for pretty good stretches. The lead changed hands 10 times in the frame, and Dallas ended up two Doncic free throws short of taking an advantage into half-time. Clippers led 59-58 at the interval. So far, so good

The Mavs’ usual third-quarter doldrums appeared again, and the Clippers soared to a 12-point margin a couple of times. They were up 11 with three minutes left in the frame. The Mavericks gradually whittled at the deficit, and narrowed it to four by the time the period was over. Trey Burke went on a 5-0 run of his own to close the quarter at 87-91.

Luka took a break during the first few minutes of the fourth, and KP took over, scoring 9 points before he needed a rest at 7:44 with the Mavs down only one point. A Maxi triple tied the game at 6:41. Then, the bottom started to fall out. 
 
Let's examine. The number after the minutes remaining in each line is Dallas' net score resulting from the exchange of possessions.

6:20  -3  Clips offensive rebound and putback. Doncic missed three
5:44  -3  Clips made three. Burke missed three
5:11  -3  Clips offensive rebound and made basket. KP comes back in. DFS missed three, offensive rebound, and Burke missed three
4:18   0  Clips floater. DFS layup.
3:37  -1  Clips made three. Doncic hits two free throws.
3:14  +1  Clips hit two free throws after DFS shooting foul. Doncic made three. 
2:44   0  Clips missed three. Luka missed three
2:20  -3  Clips made three. Burke missed three
1:43  -2  Clips jump shot. Burke missed layup
1:15   0  Clips made three. Luka made three. 
Remaining 39 seconds dribbled out. 

Game ends on 25-10 run by the Clippers. 

Ten possessions --

Mavs have six missed threes, two made threes (Luka), a layup (DFS), and two free throws (LD). Three Mavs take shots — Luka (4), Burke (4), and DFS (2. KP not a factor. 

Clippers have two scores off offensive rebounds, four made threes, one floater, one 2pt jump shot, two free throws, and one missed three. They score on 9-10 possessions. 

Yikes. Mavs should take a page from the Clippers on how to close out a game. 


Analytics

The Mavs shot poorly (35% from deep, 56% on twos). The Clips were 45% on threes, 59% on twos. The scoring showed Mavs -28 on points from twos, +9 on points from threes, and +4 on made free throws. This largely reflects Dallas taking 17 more 3PTAs than the Clips and getting to the line for 5 more FTAs. 

Dallas gave up 9 offensive rebounds and 18 second-chance points, which hurt. LA pummeled the Mavs with 58 points in the paint (29/45), whereas our boys managed only 36 (18/30).

The Clips dominated with their inside game, while the Mavs missed 31 of their threes. 


Players

KP (38 min) — Porzingis was the Maverick of the game, imho. He led the scoring with 30 points on 9-19 shooting, had three treys, went 9-9 from the line, collected seven boards, and handed out five assists. Very complete game. He was impressive taking over when Luka was out. Unfortunately, when he came back in for the last five minutes, he appeared frozen out of the offense — I’m not sure whether he even touched the ball. 

Rick complimented the big man on his threes, passing, free throws, cuts, and defense, explaining that KP had given the Clips a lot of problems. Coach said that he had to take Porzee out for a break after his back-to-back threes in the fourth because the Latvian was tired. Then, when KP came back in, somehow he didn’t get back into his groove. Zinger said he is still only 75-80% back “into his rhythm” after not playing for so long.

How does it happen that one of the Mavs’ two stars is left out of the late-game offense? I miss the old Jet-Dirk two-man game. Remember how clutch they were?

DFS (37 min) — Doe-Doe had a pretty good line (12-8-3), and drew the primary defensive assignment on Kawhi, which is as tough as it gets. He was also switched onto Zubacs several times, and was not strong enough to prevent the big man from scoring over him. 

THJ (36 min) — I don’t know what it was with Hardaway, but he was relatively invisible again. He had 8 points on 3-9 shooting, and grabbed 3 rebounds. He pretty much brought nothing on defense. After the game, however, Kawhi noted that one of the reasons the Mavs are hard to beat is their floor-spacers, and named Timmy in particular. Tim did have a dramatic moment in the first quarter, when he was fouled in the corner and fell backward into the Mavs bench. He didn’t seem any the worse for wear, fortunately. 

Luka (35 min) — Luka was very good in the match. He put up 29 points (10/21 FGA), hit six threes, dropped six dimes, and limited himself to 4 turnovers. Rick thought it was Luka’s best game from a defensive point of view. If one were to nitpick the young star’s performance, it would be in the end game, I think. Although he was responsible for most of the points, the offense again devolved into the random jacking up of long shots without apparent purpose or plan. But, overall, definitely showing his chops, individually and as team leader. 

Burke (31 min) — Trey was the leading scorer off the bench with 11 points, and also contributed 4 boards and 4 assists. He started in the third quarter, in place of Boban, and closed the frame well with 5 consecutive points. He had a nifty drive to the rim in the first half, but was 5-15 overall. Rick trusted him to man the closing unit, but he was 0-6 in the fourth quarter. 

Maxi (27 min) — Kleber had 10 points off the bench, along with 4 rebounds and 2 assists. He also came in for some tough defensive duties. I would say it was his best bubble game, not that that is any kind of high praise. 

OthersJackson and Wright also played, but didn’t do a whole lot. Bobi had 2 points, 4 rebounds, and a block in his starting cameo. 

ClippersKawhi hammered the hapless Mavs, scoring 29 points, albeit on 23 shots. Paul George chipped in with 24. Rick thought the team should have done better on George. 

Those two star turns were expected. But center Ivica Zubacs pounded Dallas with 21 points and and 15 boards on 10-10 shooting. His scores were largely opportunistic, as he took advantage of chances created by the Clips’ screening and switching schemes. Other Mavs were engaged in: double-teaming the Clippers' stars, leaving Zubacs open; trying to defend the perimeter, leaving Zubacs open; or, having a smaller player switched on to Zubacs, with Zubacs scoring over him. Sigh. 

Marcus Morris threw in 16 points, and JaMychal Green had 10 off the bench. 


Remarks

Rick praised the team for battling, but admitted that the Clips “just went through us and jumped over us.” Kawhi said after the game that the Mavs were a very difficult team to beat (although he somehow made it look pretty easy at the end.) The FSSW studio crew commented on the familiar third-quarter woes, noted the Mavs’ lack of aggressiveness in getting to the free-throw line, thought the team settled for too many threes (48), and opined that the Mavs didn’t put up enough defensive resistance. 

It could have been worse. The Mavs made a game of it until the end, the contest was closer than the scoreline would make it seem, it was a reasonably entertaining affair, and our two stars showed out well(did you know they are the leading scoring duo in the bubble?).  Sometimes you just run into a better team. The match provided our guys with plenty of learning opportunities, and that’s worth something. 


Next. The Mavericks face Milwaukee on Saturday. The Bucks won’t have anything to play for, iirc, so we’ll see whether they choose to go all-in or not. Be there or be square!
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#2
(08-07-2020, 05:42 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: Mavs Hang With Clips for 3.5 Quarters
 

Luka took a break during the first few minutes of the fourth, and KP took over, scoring 9 points before he needed a rest at 7:44 with the Mavs down only one point. A Maxi triple tied the game at 6:41. Then, the bottom started to fall out. 
 
Players

KP (38 min) — He was impressive taking over when Luka was out. Unfortunately, when he came back in for the last five minutes, he appeared frozen out of the offense — I’m not sure whether he even touched the ball. 

 
Luka (35 min) —  If one were to nitpick the young star’s performance, it would be in the end game, I think. Although he was responsible for most of the points, the offense again devolved into the random jacking up of long shots without apparent purpose or plan. But, overall, definitely showing his chops, individually and as team leader. 

Great Job and as always, thanks for the work you put into these.

The Clippers blew open a close game at the beginning of the 3rd quarter.  The Mav's were down an additional 5 points when KP sat at the 6:16 mark and fell another 6 points behind before he returned at 3:52.  There was a 5 point comeback during the next two minutes while Luka and KP were in together. 

KP took over at that point as Luka took a seat.  From the time Luka sat with 1:57 left in the third until he returned with 7:43 left in the fourth, KP scored 15 points and the team was +6.  KP sat as Luka returned and the team promptly gave back six points.  Then as you say, he didn't manage a shot attempt the rest of the game (Burke got off four shots and DFS got off two during that time).  The team really suffered when KP sat  in the second half losing 12 points in two very short breaks totaling about 4 1/2 minutes.  LAC just has too many big wings with more size than DFS and more mobility than Maxi.
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#3
(08-07-2020, 05:42 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: Seth Curry was still out with his “sore right leg.” (What is that?)


It makes me think soreness that if left alone could turn into a stress fracture...? Thankfully this is his right leg and not the left one that had the stress fracture that sidelined him for so long. But maybe this is something his body is prone to. Scary.

(08-07-2020, 05:42 AM)mavsluvr Wrote: the offense again devolved into the random jacking up of long shots


I was VERY frustrated that Luka settled with 12 threes and did not take the ball to the rim like he has the last couple games. If LAC locks him on the perimeter then they have won already and frankly the team is better off letting the offense flow through KP. Luka HAS to attack and get to the basket I do not care how physical and long they are, he has to be relentless and find a way.
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#4
Not saying the Mavs would have won but LA does not shoot 62% every quarter and it was an outlier even for them.  Their first quarter was a stinker.

Mavs could win a playoff game or two imo but I can't see a whole series unless THJ, Seth and DFS were hitting 3's at over 40% clip.   I think over a series, Luka will find a decent way inside the lane.  Once he does, they will just proceed to beat the crap out of him physically to try and slow him down.  Maybe that is why Luka settled for the outside shot more, live to fight another day?

KP is the biggest issue for the Clippers and should be exploited.  Especially when Luka is triple teamed.  smh
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#5
(08-07-2020, 07:34 AM)Hypermav Wrote: Not saying the Mavs would have won but LA does not shoot 62% every quarter and it was an outlier even for them.  Their first quarter was a stinker.

Mavs could win a playoff game or two imo but I can't see a whole series unless THJ, Seth and DFS were hitting 3's at over 40% clip.   I think over a series, Luka will find a decent way inside the lane.  Once he does, they will just proceed to beat the crap out of him physically to try and slow him down.  Maybe that is why Luka settled for the outside shot more, live to fight another day?

KP is the biggest issue for the Clippers and should be exploited.  Especially when Luka is triple teamed.  smh
Hard to argue with this.
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#6
(08-07-2020, 06:54 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Luka HAS to attack and get to the basket I do not care how physical and long they are, he has to be relentless and find a way.


How easy to say that. Luka can't get to the basket against Clippers as in other games, because they have many excellent defenders, big and strong enough. Plus they were throwing more bodies on him ignoring open three pointers from role players.

This is why Clippers are a bad match up for us.
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#7
(08-07-2020, 09:59 AM)omahen Wrote:
(08-07-2020, 06:54 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Luka HAS to attack and get to the basket I do not care how physical and long they are, he has to be relentless and find a way.


How easy to say that. Luka can't get to the basket against Clippers as in other games, because they have many excellent defenders, big and strong enough. Plus they were throwing more bodies on him ignoring open three pointers from role players.

This is why Clippers are a bad match up for us.

Any time we hit some threes, we not only put points on the table but also were much better on the defensive end just for being set. 
And we had some hard misses which normally should be hits. Not to talk about bunnys at the rim.
The Clippers are a very good team, but I'm not sure about the "bad matchup" thing.
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#8
(08-07-2020, 06:52 AM)DanSchwartzman Wrote: The Mav's were down an additional 5 points when KP sat at the 6:16 mark and fell another 6 points behind before he returned at 3:52.  There was a 5 point comeback during the next two minutes while Luka and KP were in together

This.

All the attention was going to KP when the clips figure out they just had to shut him off. Double teams were coming, more physicality before Coach call the timeout and put Luka with him. You expect a pick n roll where Luka would give it to KP but Luka opted often for the drive in play. 

Has anybody noted Ricks tendency to sub out Luka late in the 1st quarter for KP to start commanding the shots and vice versa in the early 2nd quarter with KP subbed and Luka having most of the shots. This has made LD & KP the Best Scoring Duo in the bubble, however, at the consequence of not often involving your other players.

Im hoping he has lineups without those 2 for the second unit (or for THJ, Seth) to get some of their rhythm in. Otherwise, this is going to be like seeing Durant and Westbrook OKC season.
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#9
(08-07-2020, 09:59 AM)omahen Wrote:
(08-07-2020, 06:54 AM)Kammrath Wrote: Luka HAS to attack and get to the basket I do not care how physical and long they are, he has to be relentless and find a way.


How easy to say that. Luka can't get to the basket against Clippers as in other games, because they have many excellent defenders, big and strong enough. Plus they were throwing more bodies on him ignoring open three pointers from role players.

This is why Clippers are a bad match up for us.

This. Clippers played it really smart. Great defensive scheme and the right players to execute it. Whenever an opposing player gets in the paint they switch to a ball orientated zone defense. in case of Luka they also send a double team. Two players pressure Luka on ball. The rest closes the passing lanes. Mavs shooters were wide open but there was no way for Luka to get the ball to them.
The really impressive part is how quickly they can go back to man when the ball is kicked out to the perimeter again. No chaos, no miscommunications. Perfect execution nearly all the time.

(08-07-2020, 07:34 AM)Hypermav Wrote: Not saying the Mavs would have won but LA does not shoot 62% every quarter and it was an outlier even for them.  Their first quarter was a stinker.

Mavs could win a playoff game or two imo but I can't see a whole series unless THJ, Seth and DFS were hitting 3's at over 40% clip.   I think over a series, Luka will find a decent way inside the lane.  Once he does, they will just proceed to beat the crap out of him physically to try and slow him down.  Maybe that is why Luka settled for the outside shot more, live to fight another day?

KP is the biggest issue for the Clippers and should be exploited.  Especially when Luka is triple teamed.  smh

The shooting percentages are also related to the Mavs defense. They had good looks all game long. Even in the first quarter. They missed some easy 3s but it was only a matter of time. If you leave good shooters open you will pay te price.
Same for the interior defense. I think Zubac would have made his next 20 shots as well. Not that difficult to finish a layup or dunk from 3ft. Just embarassing that the Mavs had no way to prevent it from happening.

https://twitter.com/ClutchPointsApp/stat...1143036930
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#10
Good overview of Dallas against Clippers from the Clippers beat writer.

A couple of points I find important:

Kleber presents the best option to defend Leonard, most likely, but he adds another big to the equation, allowing the Clippers to stay big and hide their center on him

“Dallas is a team you got to be physical with. They’re a continuity team where they just want to run their offense, be comfortable. (If) we take them out of that, the game is in our hands.”

https://theathletic.com/1979888/2020/08/...not-close/

(08-07-2020, 10:26 AM)FunkBoreland Wrote: This has made LD & KP the Best Scoring Duo in the bubble, however, at the consequence of not often involving your other players.

I find this difficult to agree with. There are many shots for others in all games. Problem is they were very bad at taking them. Luka and KP took less shots than George/Kawhi yet scored more points. And not that Kawhi or George set up their teammates while Luka or KP doesn't. The other guys were the real problem. Clippers got 16 points from Morrris on 7 shots, 21 points from Zubac on 10 shots, 10 points from Green on 4 shots. Dallas got 12 points from DFS on 9 shots, 11 points from Burke on 15 shots and 10 points from Maxi on 6 shots.
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#11
(08-07-2020, 09:59 AM)omahen Wrote: How easy to say that. Luka can't get to the basket against Clippers as in other games, because they have many excellent defenders, big and strong enough. Plus they were throwing more bodies on him ignoring open three pointers from role players.


Of course it is easy to say, but my words in no way acted like it was easy for him to accomplish. I have stated that the Clippers are the HARDEST matchup for Luka, and I don't think it is close.

I am simply suggesting that if the Mavs and Luka want to climb the NBA mountain in the coming years then he is going to have to figure out a way to break down the Clips (or an elite team like them) off the dribble. Even if it is a brief breakdown, just to find the open role player. Luka didn't even do that well last night. The only thing he did well offensively (according to his standards) is shoot the three ball at a 40% clip. Yes, better talent 3-5 would help, but Luka has to make this growth himself as well.
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#12
(08-07-2020, 09:59 AM)omahen Wrote: Luka can't get to the basket against Clippers as in other games, because they have many excellent defenders, big and strong enough. Plus they were throwing more bodies on him ignoring open three pointers from role players.
The Clippers' defensive strategy generally appeared to be to shut off the paint, and dare the Mavs to shoot threes. On the right night, Dallas might survive that, but the shooters didn't make them pay in this one. 


If Luka can't get to the basket, that's partly on the coach (assuming Luka isn't ignoring instructions). The coaching staff needs to work out a plan to run him around multiple screens or something, so that he isn't just relegated to the perimeter. Also think KP should play a less passive role in the offense when Luka is on the court. That's also at least partially a coaching issue. There were also a few cases of Mavericks spurning open shots at the rim, which was puzzling.  

When the Mavs aren't hitting their threes, it's very hard for them to win. There doesn't seem to be a Plan B. 

I make these remarks more or less as comments on areas the Mavs need improvement. I'm not suggesting they would have beaten the Clippers if they had only done this or that differently. The Clippers are a better team, and it is not surprising that they exposed the Mavericks' weaknesses. Hopefully, lessons will be learned and the experience will be beneficial for next season.
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#13
(08-07-2020, 05:56 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: When the Mavs aren't hitting their threes, it's very hard for them to win. There doesn't seem to be a Plan B. 


They hit 35 % on threes, which is decent. The biggest issue by far is very bad defense. If I remember correctly, they have number 19 defense in the bubble. Most of the effort should go into improving it. No way they can win against Clippers by giving them wide open shots and layups all night long.
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#14
(08-07-2020, 06:01 PM)omahen Wrote:
(08-07-2020, 05:56 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: When the Mavs aren't hitting their threes, it's very hard for them to win. There doesn't seem to be a Plan B.


They hit 35 % on threes, which is decent. The biggest issue by far is very bad defense. If I remember correctly, they have number 19 defense in the bubble. Most of the effort should go into improving it. No way they can win against Clippers by giving them wide open shots and layups all night long.

KP is good at defense. Luka is at least trying in the bubble, and Luka is the future whether he's good at defense or not. If the Mavs are bad at defense, we can either be masochists and bludgeon Luka for it - not a very healthy or sensible option for us as fans imho, since fans of all 29 of the other teams in the league would love to have Luka in their starting lineup regardless of how good their team is otherwise - or look to the other issues. Which happen to be a wretched team makeup/roster around KP and Luka (thanks again for the 2019 offseason, MBT! just brilliant!) and lackluster coaching.

Lots of things had damn well better change in October.
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#15
(08-07-2020, 06:01 PM)omahen Wrote:
(08-07-2020, 05:56 PM)mavsluvr Wrote: When the Mavs aren't hitting their threes, it's very hard for them to win. There doesn't seem to be a Plan B. 


They hit 35 % on threes, which is decent. The biggest issue by far is very bad defense. If I remember correctly, they have number 19 defense in the bubble. Most of the effort should go into improving it. No way they can win against Clippers by giving them wide open shots and layups all night long.
Agree that the defense is subpar. Maybe that's where most of the effort should go in the medium- and long-term. The thing is, I don't think that's going to get materially better in the Bubble. Tbh, I don't think they have the players at this point to be a really good defensive team. Rick noted that they were at a size disadvantage at several positions, and they're not getting bigger and stronger in the next few weeks. 

Whereas, there actually might be a way to make it easier for Luka to get to the basket in the short term. I recall Rick successfully making adjustments in that respect in the playoffs before. And if Luka gets inside, that should get the guys better threes. Of course, they have to knock them down, and at a better than decent rate. 

As you point out, when you look past this season, you have to look at more substantial changes.
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