Tank or Trophy run

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

If you had your choice and I told you the Mavs' fate was either a tank that led them to have a pick between 4 and 8, or that they would make the playoffs in the 6th seed and have a healthy team, including Kyrie and AD, what would you choose?

[Smitty]

Neither is likely but playoffs every time, without question.

[Mavs2021]

If you had your choice and I told you the Mavs' fate was either a tank that led them to have a pick between 4 and 8, or that they would make the playoffs in the 6th seed and have a healthy team, including Kyrie and AD, what would you choose?

Careful this is a trap. He wants to know whether you are a Nico.

[Mavs2021]

Neither is likely but playoffs every time, without question.

Oops too late.

[mvossman]

If you had your choice and I told you the Mavs' fate was either a tank that led them to have a pick between 4 and 8, or that they would make the playoffs in the 6th seed and have a healthy team, including Kyrie and AD, what would you choose?

I think the better question is would you rather tank and pick 1-10 (more likely to be 6-10) or play for wins, likely make the play-in and potentially make the 8 seed.  For me the answer is simple due to some very specific circumstances.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

I think the better question is would you rather tank and pick 1-8 (more likely to be 6-8) or play for wins, likely make the play-in and potentially make the 8 seed.  For me the answer is simple due to some very specific circumstances.

No, I had to word it like I did because, without exception, everyone would choose tank and a top 8 pick if the other option is the Play In and facing OKC.

I chose playoffs because having a puncher's chance against a non-OKC team is worth it, especially because the difference between pick 8 and 18 is negligible in this draft. You are just as likely to land a gem like Christian Anderson late as picking in the lottery.

[mvossman]

No, I had to word it like I did because, without exception, everyone would choose tank and a top 8 pick if the other option is the Play In and facing OKC.

I chose playoffs because having a puncher's chance against a non-OKC team is worth it, especially because the difference between pick 8 and 18 is negligible in this draft. You are just as likely to land a gem like Christian Anderson late as picking in the lottery.

I think this team has a better chance to land a top 3 pick with a tank (25% if they finish 7th worst) than make the 6th seed.  What do you think folks will pick if that is the two choices?  I think if you have to skew the odds in your poll in order to get a close response, then you already have your answer.

I also disagree that the difference between 8 and 18 is negligible.  The draft may flatten out some, but that is an extreme take.

[Winter]

I think this team has a better chance to land a top 3 pick with a tank (25% if they finish 7th worst) than make the 6th seed.  What do you think folks will pick if that is the two choices?  I think if you have to skew the odds in your poll in order to get a close response, then you already have your answer.

I also disagree that the difference between 8 and 18 is negligible.  The draft may flatten out some, but that is an extreme take.

I think we use word "tanking" a little too loosely. It's being made to sound like the FO and coaches can pull some strings and "tank". But essentially tanking means losing as many games as you can to acquire a slotted position in the draft ....starting when?  Now?? 

If you are owners of the team, you have a mission to the fanbase. The fanbase includes season ticket holders. Are you going to a Mavs game knowing the FO is going to massage the lineup to lose? What ticket holder would do that?

While I agree that draft analysts have categorized the first round with all the metrics they muster, everyone in this forum knows the draft rarely works out with a perfectly pre-conceived seletion of the top 20. While the difference between 8-18 should not be mathmatically negligible, there is also a chance that it might very well be negligible. We know this because every year there are draft failures. The Mavs could have a draft failure anywhere in the draft between 8 and 18.

I think the argument is largely faulty because I don't think at this point in the season the FO and the coaching staff would consider actively tanking games.

[ballsrchr]

The Mavs are on the basketball divide between tanking and making a run for the...play in. It's a little late to tank and a dollar short to shoot for the Play-in--which leads to the Play Offs. We should all feel like we have to take our sister to the prom. It's a little...icky.

At this point I just want to see a new GM, a lot of player development, team work, etc. to understand who we have on the team and who we will keep. We need to maximize the trade value of those we plan to trade. There's just a lot of stuff we need to do. Much more than I want to detail here. Trying to make the Play-in is not one of those things.

I made my choice that we should tank more than a month ago. I haven't change that decision.

I know you said 6th seed, but that's just pie in the sky...

[Smitty]

I think everyone is putting their own spin on it. The OP gave two hypotheticals. Pick one? That’s why I said playoffs, 6th seed, with a fully healthy team. Versus actively trying to lose game all season to win the right to pick between 4-8. Of course, I prefer other outcomes, but between the two it’s an easy decision for me.

[meistermatze]

Tank, all the way. Coop needs a running-mate and after that, there will ne no need for aggressive tanking anymore. That 6th seed scenario gives us nothing. AD might never stay healthy again, Kyrie might come back a shell of himself. And even if everything works our perfectly (healthy AD, healthy team, suprisingily good Kyrie) - are we winning a series against Denver or Houston? Of course not. The Fakers, maybe but this scenario is also another very specific long shot.

[Chicagojk]

This team will lose more than they will win. The recent downfall of Memphis (although they will continue to play hard) and the GS Butler injury may make the playin battle of who wants it least. I think the last month and a half you will see some more blatant tanking. I am not sure this team does it despite what I would like to see.

For me the more interesting question is what happens with Davis when he is "healthy". I assuming he will not be traded. He has sat out a lot and I am sure he has heard all the jokes/angst. Tough to tell him to sit the last two months of the season. Especially when he wants to show he is worthy of an extension. That is probably the main reason Rich Paul wants a trade. Mavs don't want to talk extension now and would prefer for him t miss the rest of the year while his agent knows he needs to play to have any future leverage.

Kyrie too. His going to be 34 next year. Who knows how much longer he has as top player. If he is healthy and cleared, how do you tell him to sit out the remainder of the year. Much easier to say on a message board, much harder living in the real world.

[loki]

Tank. I'm greedy and I want to see 15+ years of playoff appearances in the Flagg era. Nailing a high pick in this draft seems to be the clearest way to set that up. And while I know this is a hypothetical, I think drafting between 4-8 is many times more likely than getting the 6 seed with a healthy AD and Kyrie.

[mvossman]

I think we use word "tanking" a little too loosely. It's being made to sound like the FO and coaches can pull some strings and "tank". But essentially tanking means losing as many games as you can to acquire a slotted position in the draft ....starting when?  Now?? 

If you are owners of the team, you have a mission to the fanbase. The fanbase includes season ticket holders. Are you going to a Mavs game knowing the FO is going to massage the lineup to lose? What ticket holder would do that?

While I agree that draft analysts have categorized the first round with all the metrics they muster, everyone in this forum knows the draft rarely works out with a perfectly pre-conceived seletion of the top 20. While the difference between 8-18 should not be mathmatically negligible, there is also a chance that it might very well be negligible. We know this because every year there are draft failures. The Mavs could have a draft failure anywhere in the draft between 8 and 18.

I think the argument is largely faulty because I don't think at this point in the season the FO and the coaching staff would consider actively tanking games.

To tank is mostly driven by the FO.  Tanking would be:

Trade AD at TDL or have him get surgery or at the least bring him back very carefully and play him at significant minutes restriction
Trade Kyrie (unlikely) or shut him down or at least be very cautions bringing him back with no back to backs and minutes restriction
Trade productive players (Klay, Naji, Gafford) for assets

There are also things Kidd can do (and he is already doing some of them):

Play Flagg without a PG if you think that helps his development
Start Caleb Martin and play him as many minutes as you dare to possibly raise his value up to trade fodder (unlikely)
Focus on player development in general over wins

None of these things are crazy.  Teams do this kind of stuff all the time.  Its not about telling the players to lose and its not about telling Kidd to actively tank the rotations.  Its a shift of focus from wins to development and asset accumulation.

[ThisIStheYear]

It’s a tank year. Be disciplined.

[RasheedsBigWhiteSpot]

If you don't like the poll, okay, make your own. Again, the reality of how this season could play out is essentially, like,  "Sex With a Supermodel vs. Sex With a Wolverine" (landing a top 3 pick versus playing OKC).  And, sure, that'd make for a real interesting poll (no kink shame).  Right now the Mavs are sitting on a 20% chance of getting a top 4 pick. And I'd argue that they have a 15% of making the playoffs and not playing OKC in the first round.  Thus, considering the improved play (this was posted before the 4th quarter vs Lakers) of late, a poll was born.

Yes, of course I want a wingman for Cooper (come on down,  Darryn), but I don't necessarily see it as a slam dunk that they're getting one. I think it’s funny how the Mavs went 40 years of lotteries and never moved up, let alone drafted well in it.  But, hey, 1.8% odds can cause an entire fanbase to forget, amirite?

[RoyTarpleysGhost]

They're trying to tank. Look at the end of the Laker game.

I'm not convinced that little winning streak was anything more than an anomaly.

[mvossman]

If you don't like the poll, okay, make your own. Again, the reality of how this season could play out is essentially, like,  "Sex With a Supermodel vs. Sex With a Wolverine" (landing a top 3 pick versus playing OKC).  And, sure, that'd make for a real interesting poll (no kink shame).  Right now the Mavs are sitting on a 20% chance of getting a top 4 pick. And I'd argue that they have a 15% of making the playoffs and not playing OKC in the first round.  Thus, considering the improved play (this was posted before the 4th quarter vs Lakers) of late, a poll was born.

Yes, of course I want a wingman for Cooper (come on down,  Darryn), but I don't necessarily see it as a slam dunk that they're getting one. I think it’s funny how the Mavs went 40 years of lotteries and never moved up, let alone drafted well in it.  But, hey, 1.8% odds can cause an entire fanbase to forget, amirite?

I mean nobody has suggested its a slam dunk.  But odds do matter.  A 20% shot at top 4 pick is crazy valuable.  

Part of the reason its so important to get as good a pick as they can for this draft is because they have no clear path to a lottery pick for the foreseeable future.  They don't control their next 4 picks and they are all likely to be late round.  Then Flagg will be in his prime which means very unlikely their own picks get near the lottery for years.  They don't have any assets that I am confident are worth a lottery pick.  This is it.  This is by far their best chance to get that wingman.  If they don't get him this draft, they will have to either get really lucky in a future draft (Brunson) or get really lucky on a desperate trade for a depressed asset (Kyrie).  Either option could take many years to hit (Brunson took 4 years to get to wingman status).  Hitting on this draft could very well be the difference in being a contender in 3 years vs never getting there before Flagg leaves.