A Few Thoughts on Mavs 120, Hornets 123

[Dahlsim]

Shortstaffed Mavs Fall to Hornets After 32-Point Comeback

Oof! To paraphrase Charles Dickens, it was the worst of times, it was the best of times. Then the worst of times again. Heartbreaking loss for our boys. 


Game Story 
.... 

Whatever happened at halftime, Kleber replaced Jackson in the starting lineup in the third, and the Mavericks came out strong, in fact erasing the deficit, putting together a 40-point quarter, and gaining an 84-80 edge at the end of the frame. They started the fourth in similar fashion, and the lead was up to 12 with 9 minutes left in regulation. The advantage was frittered away in a flurry of missed long threes, turnovers, and giving up offensive rebounds. Luka's step-back three for the win rimmed out at the buzzer. To overtime.
.... 

Barea (33 min) had 11 points, and assisted the Mavs with playmaking, with 9 dimes and only 1 turnover. I don't love the Luka-Barea lineup, as it tends to take Luka out of the play, and is a turnstile defensively. However, there arguably wasn't much in the way of options, as Dallas badly needed a player other than Luka who could create off the dribble. His role should diminish once THJ returns. 

..... 

Boban had a disastrous 3 minutes, during which the Mavs went down 8 points. Not really Bobi's fault, he just isn't able to guard the pick and roll very well, due to his lack of mobility. His only stat was 1 foul.

Remarks

Carlisle said the game was lost in the first quarter. (Luka disagreed, opining that the match was lost in overtime). ..... 
Get well, injured Mavs!

The run in the first was bad but that happens in the NBA routinely enough.  What isn't so routine is squandering significant leads so quickly so late in games. 
A good team should be able to hold a certain lead when the clock is down to the point of being very much on their side. 

The Mavericks had enough of a cushion with so little time left in the game that Charlotte had to both 
A) Score a furious run on offense  AND 
B) Force Dallas to have mostly all empty possessions. 

It took till all the time for Charlotte to just tie the game send it into overtime, meaning just one or two more baskets, all things being similar, and the Hornets comeback has to come up short. 

High % offensive attempts is what is required here.  The Hornet's cannot come back in time trading 3's for 2's, they'll come up short.  The clock is Dallas's friend.   To Luka's credit he generated a few good shots at the rim and missed bunnies, but he also made a few terrible decisions as he himself said.  
The 4th quarter squandering the lead in the last few minutes was

[b]Barea [/b](33 min) had 11 points, and assisted the Mavs with playmaking, with 9 dimes and only 1 turnover. 
... 
Boban had a disastrous 3 minutes, during which the Mavs went down 8 points. Not really Bobi's fault, he just isn't able to guard the pick and roll very well, due to his lack of mobility. His only stat was 1 foul.

The problem with JJB/Boban both is purely the way Rick Carlisle uses them or fails to use them.  
As you see Barea still had good offense, low turnovers, good passing and decision making.  Defense is a problem but again, look at the game.  The Mavs had the lead and clock in their favor.  That's when you need to keep scoring, you don't have to out defend the Hornets at that point.  The monkey is on their back.  
Don't come up with empty possessions. 

The Boban line is absurd when you look at how he's used.  Marjonovic is one of the most efficient players on offense and rebounding in NBA history over his limited minutes.  On offense! His defense is a problem although in this case I'd like to have seen his big slow long body at least standing around the rim on a couple of possessions.  

The point is Boban's line was 3 minutes, ZERO shot attempts.  0's across the board.  If you are going to bring the Giant into the game just to have him stand out at the free throw line extended and set screens, then what a complete waste of both his offense and his rebounding ability!  

If that's the way you're going to use him while other team has their stretch 5 Zeller pull him out on the defensive end from under the boards to try and challenge 3 pointers then of course he can only be a negative in that sort of matchup.  Boban has to be allowed to punish his man on the other end, or just don't play him at all.   This is why I also don't see the Mavs using a big bruising enforcer inside either unless the guy is a defensive savant.  They won't fit the Carlisle system where post play is considered dead on arrival.  

After the Mavs had the solid lead with just a few minutes left, they just needed to keep scoring at a decent rate even if the defense wasn't going to be great with JJB or Bobi.  As it turns out without using them, the offense didn't get that boost but the defense was horrible anyway. 

[ItsGoTime]

I don't think so. The Mavs have done the vast majority of their roster construction over the years in the summers, afaik.

I can't recall all their best work, but some of the things that really stand out to me:
JHo-Was trade
Kidd trade
KP trade
Bradley/Pack trade

Some less than best work but not bad either:
Yogi Ferrell was signed mid-season
Noel was a mid-season trade 
McDermott (reclamation with us to serviceable rotation player for Ind now)

The rest:
Barnes was an attempt at a good trade. 
I mean, who can forget Matt Carroll and Ryan Hollins for Diop trade mid-season!   
Also, DP was acquired mid-season, Cuban is still claiming victory on that trade because of him. 

So let's change that "most" to "some of" in my quote. I think that covers it pretty much. 

Yes, they've done the vast majority of their roster construction in the offseason, because the vast majority of available players are available at that time. I'm not looking for blockbuster moves. I'm looking for 2 good bench players (and/or prospects) for a solid starter level player, or something akin to that type of trades. The Matt Carroll and Ryan Hollins for Diop trades, the McDermott/Noel type trades. We have the two guys that can carry this team, we need the dog sled team around them to improve.

[mavsluvr]

I disagree from the standpoint that 1) the Mavs have to improve their roster, both now and in the medium term, and 2) if they don't make a trade, they aren't going to have anything more than the MLE to do so this summer. Another consideration is how important 2021 cap room is to them. If they place a premium on that, then you can forget about a THJ + pick trade this summer, because THJ's value is in his expiration, so you're very unlikely to get anything back if you're protecting 2021 cap room.

You seem to be saying that it is absolutely necessary, in your view, that a trade occur, even if it is a bad one. A bad trade is worse than doing nothing. To wit, Rondo. Whether they are in a position to make a good trade depends on who is available, and for how much. If you walk into Tiffany's with 50 cents, you can't buy anything, even if it would clearly upgrade the bling you're wearing. The Mavs will still have essentially the assets they have now to trade in the summer, minus expiring contracts and the TE. 

I personally think that preserving 2021 cap room is very important to them, and that they will only sacrifice that if they get the kind of player that they are, in effect, preserving cap room for. Not at all sure they even want to trade THJ, although I agree he isn't untouchable for the right compensation. 

If the Mavs want cap room in 2021, and want to be competitive at an at least minimally acceptable level next year, I would say that a 2020 "we love our boys in blue" trade deadline is binarily and absolutely unacceptable to me as a Mavs fan. Not that Cuban cares what I think. But I will break things first if we don't make a trade at the deadline, and again if we don't throw out 2021 for a THJ/pick trade

You seem to be arguing for a desperation, throw-something-at-the-wall type of transaction, which I can't imagine you really think is advantageous. Maybe you're hyperbolizing for effect. They should make a wise trade, if something becomes available. But I can understand why they don't want to give up their chance at Giannis or another game-changer for some rando who can be attained for an expiring contract and a second-round pick. Having said that, in light of their previous Plan Powder debacles, I can also see how you are skeptical that they will accomplish much in free agency. 

[ItsGoTime]

And any mid-season trade inevitably involves a disruption in chemistry for a period of time, so they may want to be conservative about making tweaks around the edges, in order to maintain continuity for their young team. 

This is my concern and what I was talking about previously. If they recognize a problem, I believe it should be attempted to be fixed with less than a conservative approach (not going to say an aggressive approach, and I'm still patient enough to wait it out to the TDL to form any type of definitive opinion) and is why I hope they see at least some of the issues we see (cause I don't expect them to believe all the problems we bring up, that they believe to be problems, but I hope they at least see problems).

[omahen]

You seem to be saying that it is absolutely necessary, in your view, that a trade occur, even if it is a bad one.

Seems to me that you only consider trades that should improve team. Scott and I are more advocates of a trade that will bring us some bad salary (and perhpas not totally useless player) and assets that can be used in next trades. So Dieng type of trades. You will not get anything better for Lee or for our TE.

[ItsGoTime]

Projected cap is at 116 mil.

That cap projection is old in light of the China incident though isn't it? Not saying the damage isn't mitigated by Luka-sanity by the end of the season though!!!!!

[mavsluvr]

And any mid-season trade inevitably involves a disruption in chemistry for a period of time, so they may want to be conservative about making tweaks around the edges, in order to maintain continuity for their young team. 

This is my concern and what I was talking about previously. If they recognize a problem, I believe it should be attempted to be fixed with less than a conservative approach (not going to say an aggressive approach, and I'm still patient enough to wait it out to the TDL to form any type of definitive opinion) and is why I hope they see at least some of the issues we see (cause I don't expect them to believe all the problems we bring up, that they believe to be problems, but I hope they at least see problems).

I guess it's a matter of degree. Say they trade a 34% three-point shooter for a guy who is 34.5% and costs twice as much. I would understand if they didn't want to spring for that, considering the very marginal improvement on the court, significantly increased cost, and disadvantages of having a new guy who has to come in and learn the system mid-season. It's possible to fall so in love with the idea of a trade that a person doesn't consider whether the game is worth the candle. (Not saying you are doing that, just making the point in general.)

[omahen]

Projected cap is at 116 mil.

That cap projection is old in light of the China incident though isn't it? Not saying the damage isn't mitigated by Luka-sanity by the end of the season though!!!!!

As far as I know, China incident has no consequences on the cap, at least not short term. Contracts were already signed. That was just some tweet that was never really confirmed.

[mavsluvr]

I second what IGT said. It's rare to have a poster who provides such a high level of quality content and then class on top of that. Thanks, ML!

Thank you, Scott. Very sporting of you to tolerate some degree of debate!


Enjoyed the discussion.

[ItsGoTime]

I guess it's a matter of degree. Say they trade a 34% three-point shooter for a guy who is 34.5% and costs twice as much. I would understand if they didn't want to spring for that, considering the very marginal improvement on the court, significantly increased cost, and disadvantages of having a new guy who has to come in and learn the system mid-season. It's possible to fall so in love with the idea of a trade that a person doesn't consider whether the game is worth the candle. (Not saying you are doing that, just making the point in general.)

Yes, yes, yes. I think if that 34.5% is in the body of a player that can also play better defense, that is the full on upgrade I'm wanting. The reason I'm high on RoCo is because at this moment, he might actually be a worse candidate to replace DFS in the starting lineup. However, if we acquire him (without using DFS) and either DFS or him comes off the bench (they both have to fight for it), the impact of that trade is HUGE. I think there is a package we can offer that puts us in the conversation for him (part of the offer would be to absorb Dieng's contract).

The reason I'm high on Favors is because he can do the things Powell does, but he would add a large amount of defense and a big body that can take on the other bigs of the league so as not to wear down our smaller bodied bigs. NO got him for cap room and 2 seconds.  I think Lee and 2-3 seconds or Lee, JJ and 1-2 seconds would be something NO would consider (of course starting out smaller to negotiate to that point).

Edit: We would pay more than NO paid because they are not in desperation mode to get Favors off their roster like Utah was.

[mavsluvr]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1213...90529?s=20

Last 2M report. 

[omahen]

I think Lee and 2-3 seconds or Lee, JJ and 1-2 seconds would be something NO would consider

Only if they go in the tanking mode. Right now their playoff hopes are alive. 

I didn't see Favors enough to have any opinion. RoCo is an upgrade. We could even play DFS at two and RoCo at three for some periods of time. And certainly each of them at the four, as long as we don't get another big in the rotation.

In the season so far, Maxi and DFS seem as keepers, great 3-D guys. Both can still improve some on the offense. Brunson is good and very cheap back up point guard but I wouldn't mind trading him. The rest are playing very hot-cold, so I don't think any of them would be really badly missed, if we get an upgrade for any position.

[ItsGoTime]

As far as I know, China incident has no consequences on the cap, at least not short term. Contracts were already signed. That was just some tweet that was never really confirmed.

I'm sure they have plenty of contracts coming due every year, and they are in control of the businesses that own those contracts. I hope you're right and it doesn't have any bit of impact, not sure anyone can be all that certain on it though, especially with a government as volatile as China seems they can be.

[Dahlsim]

https://twitter.com/townbrad/status/1213...90529?s=20

Last 2M report. 

Somebody alert James Harden and the Rockets.

Other are teams getting hosed and losing games to blown calls.  
Can we have the replay the last 10 minutes of the game?  Maybe just do the whole thing again. 

[ItsGoTime]

Only if they go in the tanking mode. Right now their playoff hopes are alive. 

I can see that, but you have to take into consideration that his contract expires and if he's telling them he won't sign with them cause Zion is going to take up too much of his minutes when he comes back, they would then want to shop him. That or when Zion returns, he makes Favors obsolete for their team, the same could be said. All of that could also be foresight for their FO to get the most value out of him now too.

[omahen]

when Zion returns, he makes Favors obsolete for their team

I think Zion will play the four and Favors keeps his minutes. It would take a pretty unhappy Favors for NO to trade him imho. I would say they brought him as a longer term soloution, not just one season rental - meaning, they are counting on that he will resign

[ClutchDirk]

http://twitter.com/coopmavs/status/1213925806319325184

[ItsGoTime]

I think Zion will play the four and Favors keeps his minutes. It would take a pretty unhappy Favors for NO to trade him imho. I would say they brought him as a longer term soloution, not just one season rental - meaning, they are counting on that he will resign

I think we'll know a lot more once Zion gets some court time. Seems their play is at the same spot on the court with that team. Okafor might be the better use of spacing since Zion brings the defense. Not sure I'm willing to give up Kleber to get Favors but I see him as a guy they could use with Zion really well, but it's close and I might need some compensation back from them to give up Kleber (and whatever else is used to match salaries). Just went on the trade checker and I know you'll poopoo on this trade, but wonder if this is the right value:

NO => Jrue and Favors (maybe their worst min salary guy to match the number of players outgoing with incoming, maybe Kenrich Williams?)
Dal => Maxi, Wright, THJ, 2025 first (willing to give up GSW second and 1 or 2 more seconds)

NO rotation looks pretty dang good:
Ball/Wright
THJ/Reddick
Ingram/Hart
Zion/Melli
Kleber/Okafor

Mavs rotation is pretty good too:
Luka/JB
Jrue/Curry
DFS/JJ
KP/Roby or Williams
Favors/Powell

We would then use our MLE in the offseason shore up the bench.

[Hypermav]

Man, go on vacation and turn my back for a second on this team...  

Have several games to watch, guess I will just watch the wins.

Thanks for the recap as always.

[omahen]

I know you'll poopoo on this trade, but wonder if this is the right value

Trying to show how NO would look at our players.

1. Jrue averages 20 PPG and is an excellent defender. Streaky 13 PPG on so so defense THJ is a huge step down for NO
2. Wright is streaky and nothing special for his salary. A little expensive back up PG. I would rather take Brunson
3. Maxi is great, but needs excellent PG to create him open looks. Will he have such open looks in NO, where defenders can give a little space to Ball and Zion?
4. All in all, NO is definitely loosing on offense making this trade. If Favors is as good as you advertise they are also losing on defense. THJ
I would trade Ball, if I am NO, as long as he still has value. I don't think he is capable to be a first PG on a contender. PetBev type of PG would be perfect fit next to creators like Jrue and Ingram. Or Dragic - knows how to play, can pass, can hit a three, can play PnR. Brogdon would be absolutely perfect.

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I don't know how Luka would do long-term with CP3 choosing when he gets the ball as opposed to Luka being that guy. Like KP though, it probably wouldn't eat at him as long as they're winning.

I have to go back to this. Luka will need to share the ball. We desperately need a secondary facilitator. 

Regarding CP3. Assuming it would cost Lee+THJ to get him, we are not giving away any real assets. We keep our MLE guy next year and all picks. Unless the trade would completely blow up in our face, we would be a serious contender. We will still have assets to upgrade Powell or DFS if needed. Since we will be a serious contender we could also get a ring hunting veteran for that MLE. Think Milsap, Ibaka, perhaps even Gallo as he will be 32 already. The only thing we might be losing is our 2021 pipedream. Personally I think, CP3 and Luka would be great together, as they both have high BBIQ and want to win. Yes, CP3 will be a little worse every year as he ages. But as long as he doesn't completely fall off the cliff, he will contribute. We don't need him to be the go to guy anyway. We need his veteran stability. 

What is the alternative? Do we hope this team grows up naturally and becomes serious contender in next year or two? Can THJ expiring, 2020 1st and GSW 2nd bring so much better player than THJ to put us in serious contention (will that player be risk free? - I don't think so)? Do we wait till 2021 for Giannis? As with CP3 trade, there are huge IFs in all the scenarios I have mentioned. 

Personally, I am surprised how good Mavs really are. Even as a Luka fan, I didn't expect him to be this good. Although I am more of a careful person regarding building hopes (some might call me pessimist  ), I think Mavs are really only a piece or two away from contending. However, I think this team as it is, doesn't have the quality to contend. They lack killer mentality.

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Reading about Kidd I found this statement on Wiki: "The Mavericks hoped that Kidd would provide leadership to the team that for years had been labelled as weak mentally and help Dallas and its franchise-player to win their first ever NBA Championship"