What happened? A diagnosis

[Scott41theMavs]

After the trade deadline, it appeared to me that the Mavs had assembled a great 10-man rotation that could hang with any team in the league. Obviously this road trip has revealed some problems, which seem to put the rest of the season in question in spite of seeming good health.

Kyrie-Exum
Green-THJ
Luka-DJJ
PJ-Maxi
Lively-Gafford

Luka and Kyrie - Kyrie's struggles with the Celtics fans' horsecrap last night not withstanding, not the problem. There are issues with all of the other eight - some of which aren't those players' faults.

Exum - still shaking off the rust. Not playing like he was earlier in the season, but he'll be fine.

PJ - I would say it's still a work in progress, but he looks like he's going to be a great fit here by the end of the season - unless the team as a whole starts to struggle even more and he gets dispirited. Chin up, young man!

***Green - His struggles over the course of the road trip have been well-documented. I am still convinced that he's worth his new contract, but perhaps not for the Mavs, and perhaps not in the POA defender role they need him to occupy.

DJJ - This isn't tough. He's a limited player, but does some things really well. The issue is how he is used in rotations at this point.

***Maxi - Looks like his great showing in his first couple of games back was fool's good, and Kidd is playing him too much.

Lively - When he plays, he's a force of nature. I am hoping that his rather baffling limited usage is completely due to a minutes limitation due to what was, after all, a pretty serious injury. Anything short of that would be a fireable offense on Kidd's part.

***Gafford - Wow, the shine has worn off, hasn't it? It's not like we didn't know who he was. IMHO, he's just fine as a 15-20 mpg backup center. However, Kidd seems not to have gotten the memo that we spent a pick swap on this guy and that the FO expects him to play the man. I don't blame any of this on either Nico or Gafford. Gafford is fine. It's Kidd, 100%.

*****THJ - He was always the one question mark for me in the 10-man, and it has since become clear that he is a resounding NO. The Mavs are now in a position where it has become pretty evident that he's essentially unplayable unless they want to tank (they don't). His butt should be sat in favor of Hardy, but for whatever coaching and locker room reasons, that isn't happening.

Bottom line is that 1) due to THJ, Maxi, and possibly Green's issues, this is still a really flawed roster. 2) It's become quite obvious that Kidd isn't the guy to deal with these issues. 

Lots of folks are saying we could win 60-75% percent of our remaining games. I felt that way prior to the road trip. I think it's become pretty clear since that anything north of 50% will be a win in spite of the relative ease of schedule, and that will probably put us in the playin. I would be fine with the playin if it weren't for the refs' hatred of Cuban and Luka. The silver lining to all this is that hopefully it will spell the end of both Kidd and THJ's tenures with the Mavs.

[youzigizag]

Money wise...what is the league average for contenders total for seats 6 - 8 or 9?

6th man of the year award going back to 2016 seems to have an average of under 10M per with Malcolm Brogdan's 22M salary last year as double all other award winners other than Jamal Crawfords 2016 salary of 13M. Keep in mind Jamal Crawford won the award quite a few times at around 5M per year before his last year winning it(2016) having a salary of 13.5M. Salary cap jumped in 2016 due to a tv deal supposedly.

Caps gone up...but it seems like the sixth man should be around 10% of salary.

Josh Green is currently just under 10% of salary...is he 6th man worthy? THJ is currently above 10% at around 13%...is he 6th man worthy?

THJ is a paradox. It doesnt matter if he is hot or cold shooting...you are sacrificing offensive possessions letting him chuck. Green on the other hand is not sacrificing any possessions and most likely adding to offensive possessions with his hustle plays on loose balls, rebounds, steals in transition.

Maxi might be overpaid...but his length and mobility are too hard to find without overpaying contract wise or giving up a bunch of assets for.

Not every team can have a 6th man award winner. Im curious if Mavs are overpaying for seats 6-9? Maxi, THJ and Green are all over 10M per.

Disclaimer: I am going by the information the internet provided me through google...i usually use sporttrac...i may have misread info or be getting played with false info or stats.

[Smitty]

Again, a silver lining on THJ. Since Kyrie returned Tim has averaged 25 mpg (last 11G). Down from 34.5 mpg (Previous 13G).

Since Exum has returned he’s played 25 min and then 20 min (when every player was healthy).

The only hope is that this trend continues and he plays less and less.

[SwisherPrice]

First step and the easiest step: avoid putting THJ on the floor with Luka and Kyrie. Do whatever is needed in order to change up the lineup to ensure that this can never happen. You may have to start Exum or DJJ at SF instead of Green because otherwise, THJ has been Green's direct sub.

The Mavs offense is fundamentally very simple - regardless of who is on the floor but especially when Luka and Kyrie are out there. Whoever is playing SF will just be in the corner to draw defensive attention for the 3-pt shot. Green has at least emerged as a respectable corner shooter to where he can fulfill that role. Kidd panics and goes to the THJ lineup because he thinks he needs the offensive firepower but if Luka and Kyrie are out there then your SF is just going to be a floor spacer anyway. You might as well have Green to pose the same corner shooter threat while not being quite as bad on defense as THJ.

It won't solve everything but at least it would have prevented the Cleveland loss.

[Scott41theMavs]

Didn't get a chance to watch the Philadelphia debacle. I notice from the box that despite his bad shooting game, PJ was one of the few players with a positive +/-. Must have made a big defensive difference. Also, perhaps Maxi isn't as dead as I thought he was. A couple questions:

1) Lively's box is terrible. Was his lack of production and positive impact completely due to the foul trouble, or did he look rookie-esque out there this afternoon?

2) Exum - a stunner to me that he didn't make more of an impact or get more minutes. Did he look disengaged? Hurt? Frozen out?

Re: Gafford: once again, his career production up to this point speaks for itself - they need to figure out how to get his minutes to be positive. That's a matter of practice and coaching, imho.

[Smitty]

Again, a silver lining on THJ. Since Kyrie returned Tim has averaged 25 mpg (last 11G). Down from 34.5 mpg (Previous 13G).

Since Exum has returned he’s played 25 min and then 20 min (when every player was healthy).

The only hope is that this trend continues and he plays less and less.

15 min today. Keep going!

[MrGoat]

Didn't get a chance to watch the Philadelphia debacle. I notice from the box that despite his bad shooting game, PJ was one of the few players with a positive +/-. Must have made a big defensive difference. Also, perhaps Maxi isn't as dead as I thought he was. A couple questions:

1) Lively's box is terrible. Was his lack of production and positive impact completely due to the foul trouble, or did he look rookie-esque out there this afternoon?

2) Exum - a stunner to me that he didn't make more of an impact or get more minutes. Did he look disengaged? Hurt? Frozen out?

Re: Gafford: once again, his career production up to this point speaks for itself - they need to figure out how to get his minutes to be positive. That's a matter of practice and coaching, imho.

1. Perfect example of why not to put stock in single game +/-. Mavs put a lot of lipstick on a pig in the 4th quarter without Lively in garbage time. Washington and Kleber benefitted from being in those garbage time minutes. PJ airballed multiple 3s in this game. Bad offense killed us in this game, turnovers galore led to a bunch of easy Philly points
2. Exum hasn't looked fully right since his return yet to me, and Philly was getting away with a lot of contact so having him out there was risky

[ballsrchr]

Unfortunately I did watch the "Philadelphia Debacle". Being old and senile the game was during my normal afternoon sleep time--sort of--so I stayed up and watched it...all. the. way. through.

#1. The team did not show up to play. They were slow, sloppy, careless, and any other adjective you want to use. This includes Luka for most of the game, but I do want to point out that not all the turnovers attributed to Luka are his fault. It takes two to tango and there were lot of sloppy exchanges and ball handling from Luka's "play" partner. Kyrie has been slow to getting into the game--for the last few games. As mentioned by someone else--does he need a vacation? We could pick each player apart, aside from DJJ, but--it just wasn't a good game. The refs sure don't like Luka. Soon he'll be gettng technicals for breathing. I know how that works because my wife gets mad at me for breathing...

#2. Game plan? We don't need no stinkin' game plan...

#3. The rotation, player utilization/matchups, and game coaching is a mystery to me.

#4. No, I'm not a basketball savant like some of you guys --and I appreciate your hard work and thoughts--but why is Jaden Hardy not getting any playing time, especially when Timmie is laying goose eggs? Hardy couldn't possible do any worse...and he passes sometimes...

#5. On to the next game...

[The Jom]

Do new owners ever get fair calls from the refs? I think you buy in and you take your lumps. Not gonna give hardware to somebody who hasn’t paid their dues. Yes, this is a conspiracy theory. That don’t make it false.

[MrGoat]

Do new owners ever get fair calls from the refs? I think you buy in and you take your lumps. Not gonna give hardware to somebody who hasn’t paid their dues. Yes, this is a conspiracy theory. That don’t make it false.

I don't think it has to do with the owners, my conspiracy is the NBA is actively trying to drive Luka out of Dallas. Kyrie in particular has a rotten whistle. The guy averages less than half the amount of free throws that Damian Lillard does, look it up. That is absolutely ridiculous

Maybe Kyrie should start bitching more to the refs like Luka because it does pressure the refs.

[ThisIStheYear]

The team needs to give a new coach a try. That’s the only play left unless they want to tank again. They may still have time to drop into the bottom nine or ten, but it will be hard. They’ll need to lose a lot of games.

[omahen]

I think they want it. It seems to me they did play with energy in the first half until, but defense is just clueless. One screen and everything falls apart. Everyone just scrambling always late on rotations. Changing the coach is the only hope

[audiosway]

They need an actual coach. That's the problem. They have built a great young squad of players that really play well around Luka and KY. It's time to move on from Kidd.

[omahen]

The overall perceptive was that Luka and Kyrie are not great defenders, which is totally true. But, it was not Luka and Kyrie that were cooked for most of the game with Indy. It was a simple Haly-Turner PnR for most of the plays, guarded by Green and center and Mavs were just clueless. Only late in the second half Luka was exposed a couple of times, when he was already visibly frustrated with how the game was going. It is not the teams are attacking Luka and Kyrie, the overall scheme just doesn't work.

True, Mavs don't have any all NBA defender on the squad and this is definitely missing. But, someone needs to take accountability. Whatever player changes they make, the schemes are just not working. So it might be easier to try different schemes.

[hakeemfaan]

Absentee owner. Team run by someone who has treated picks like candy and wants to be buddy buddy with the coach and GM than demand accountability. That is a huge problem. You had Hardy and Green getting a lot of combined minutes before the ASG and contributing as a duo. Hardy is now stuck with low minutes just because Exum is back. We spend two first on centers but the coach either pulls them out when the other team goes on a small ball run or doesn’t know how the team should play defense when one of them is on like last night.

On top of this all you lost a player who is a legit all star now and got nothing back.

Oh I can definitely point out Luka’s faults and areas that he needs to improve. He has to see how Dirk, Jokic and Steph all won despite being poor defenders. and see why Westbrook and Harden never have. At the same time when the ownership is so lost what is the point? Blaming Luka is like rearranging chairs on the Titanic ‘s deck.

[omahen]

Absentee owner. Team run by someone who has treated picks like candy and wants to be buddy buddy with the coach and GM than demand accountability.  That is a huge problem.  You had Hardy and Green getting a lot of combined minutes before the ASG and contributing as a duo. Hardy is now stuck with low minutes just because Exum is back.  We spend two first on centers but the coach either pulls them out when the other team goes on a small ball run or doesn’t know how the team should play defense when one of them is on like last night.

On top of this all you lost a player who is a legit all star now and got nothing back. 

Oh I can definitely point out Luka’s faults and areas that he needs to improve.  He has to see how Dirk, Jokic and Steph all won despite being poor defenders. and see why Westbrook and Harden never have. At the same time when the ownership is so lost what is the point?  Blaming Luka is like rearranging  chairs on the Titanic ‘s  deck.

I am very much with you. Each player has ways to improve and no one can say Luka is not improving every season. Listening what he needs to improve. But something is just off. I just can't understand how Mavs collapsed in a couple of weeks. They had that 7 games run looking great. And then just like that they can't stop anyone anymore. Defense against Indy was comicaly bad. For 90 % of the time it was an open shot and when they missed they collected a lot of offensive rebounds. Like everyone is out of position most of the time. I thought body language was fine against Indy, but on court result was a total disaster.

[youzigizag]

Mavs bargain bin shopping and using players with flaws is the problem.

Im not ready to fall for the doom just yet...there is still room for a bait and switch.

But I stand by my two sense I left here.

[Smitty]

https://x.com/mavsfilmroom/status/176541...37268?s=46&t=4w35gotNXtBJnqxbaL7e9w

It’s going to be difficult to overcome this going forward. 2-10 from 3, all of which are wide open. 22.5 mpg and only 2 ppg is rough. (16/20/66 shooting splits)

I really like Maxi and he does a lot of good things on the defensive end but even then, last 5 he’s been very average there also.

This team can’t beat good teams if Maxi and Lively don’t play well. The last 5 losses came to teams with a combined winning percentage of 65%.

Nothing is going well for anyone not named PJ Washington, who’s actually been good on both ends the last 5, averaging 17/5 with 38% 3PT on 7.4 attempts per game.

[youzigizag]

They need an actual coach. That's the problem. They have built a great young squad of players that really play well around Luka and KY. It's time to move on from Kidd.

I have read all the post around here...

And this seems to be the most concise post of them all.

Which coach can you bring in that doesnt cause drama?  Is that even possible?

Nice guy equals team is soft to the critics that over run message boards.   Mean guy eventually loses the locker room and is fired.

Is there an x and o's guy that motivates players without treating rookies like manure or berates janitors that wont lose the locker room?

[MrGoat]

I have read all the post around here...

And this seems to be the most concise post of them all.

Which coach can you bring in that doesnt cause drama?  Is that even possible?

Nice guy equals team is soft to the critics that over run message boards.   Mean guy eventually loses the locker room and is fired.

Is there an x and o's guy that motivates players without treating rookies like manure or berates janitors that wont lose the locker room?

I'm almost afraid to post the name of the coach I think would work here. For one, there probably is some unnamed coach out there who is the best option.

But I won't be a coward and not say the name either. There is no excuse for this team to not be the league's top offense, MDA was a Chris Paul injury away from knocking off the KD Warriors.