The road to 50: It is done

[Branduil]

@dalton_trigg
The Mavs have to go 5-2 over their last seven games to reach 50 wins. Here's their remaining schedule:

vs. Hawks
vs. Warriors (B2B, but GSW also on B2B)
vs. Rockets
at Hornets
at Heat
vs. Pistons
at Thunder

Will they get to 50 wins?

I think they go

W vs. Hawks
W vs. Warriors (B2B, but GSW also on B2B)
W vs. Rockets
W at Hornets
L at Heat
W vs. Pistons
W at Thunder

[Knutsen]

I think they go

W vs. Hawks
W vs. Warriors (B2B, but GSW also on B2B)
W vs. Rockets
W at Hornets
L at Heat
W vs. Pistons
W at Thunder

With and without Lively returning in the regular season? 
I think the last game depends on which team - if any - still has something to play for rankingwise. If we‘re settled into the 5th place for example and OKC is still playing for the first or second seed they’ll probably win.

[Chicagojk]

next 3 are huge. You would think a win against ATL who played last night should be expected. It should be. Although first games back after a long road trip can be tricky. Then they play GS the following night. On Sunday they have a 3:30 game against the Rockets. It always concerns me playing a team shortly after having your way with them. I tend to be more cautious on predictions. It would be great to come out of these games 3-0. I think at least two of them will be tight though...not sure which ones.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

Lillard wasn’t playing in any of these games. And they don’t seem „motivated“ on the road and against week teams all season - they have a record of 18-20 on the road. Sure they could lose in the first round, but if they are healthy and get their stuff together when it‘s go-time watch out, I think they are build for the playoffs.

I'm glad you have faith in them, because I don't trust any team led by the King of Blown 3-1 leads, Doc Rivers.

[Chicagojk]

next two are huge. Detroit and at Hornets (while this one could be a trap game) should be wins. Makes it where we may be able to give rest at Miami and OKC and still be ok if we take care of business in the next two.

[omahen]

next two are huge.  Detroit and at Hornets (while this one could be a trap game) should be wins.  Makes it where we may be able to give rest at Miami and OKC and still be ok if we take care of business in the next two.

Agree. Fortunately, GSW realistically can't move in any direction from the 10th spot. I hope their vets will start taking it a bit more easy, with the main goal to reach play-in in full health. Houston on the other hand doesn't have much to fight for, as they are locked in 11th spot. If Mavs play as hard as they were lately, I think there is little chance to lose any of those games. As you said, it could be huge if Mavs clinch their play-off spot in next couple of games and then "cruise at half speed" in remaining games.

[SleepingHero]

@allthingsmavs
lots of mavs related games tonight:

DAL vs GSW
PHX vs MIN
LAC vs UTA
NOP vs SAS
SAC @ BOS

Dallas and Golden State are both playing on the second night of back-to-backs

best-case scenario:
- Mavs win, other bolded teams lose
- Mavs jump 1 GB LAC (4th), 2 ahead of PHX & NOP (6th/7th), 3 ahead of SAC (8th)
- Mavs stay in 5th

worst-case scenario:
- Mavs lose, other bolded teams win
- Mavs fall 3 GB LAC (4th), fall to 6th in a three-way tie* with NOP & PHX, hold a 1 game lead over SAC

*Dallas owns the tiebreaker over Phoenix, but not New Orleans. NOP jumps to 5th, DAL falls to 6th, PHX to 7th

[omahen]

*Dallas owns the tiebreaker over Phoenix, but not New Orleans. NOP jumps to 5th, DAL falls to 6th, PHX to 7th

I don't think this part is correct. Mavs and NO each won 2 games in their four games this season. They play in same division and would share top seed by Mavs losing and Pels winning. But, Mavs currently have best conference record of those three teams, which I think would win the tiebreaker for them. If Mavs lose one their conference record would be 29-21, while Pelicans would be at 27-20 if they win next game.

[Knutsen]

I don't think this part is correct. Mavs and NO each won 2 games in their four games this season. They play in same division and would share top seed by Mavs losing and Pels winning. But, Mavs currently have best conference record of those three teams, which I think would win the tiebreaker for them. If Mavs lose one their conference record would be 29-21, while Pelicans would be at 27-20 if they win next game.

Is there a site where I can find the „live-tiebreakers“ between every team?

[omahen]

Is there a site where I can find the „live-tiebreakers“ between every team?

Don't know about that. Here are the tiebreaker rules. But, everything can be more or less settled today if Mavs win against Hou and Phoenix beats depleted NO.

NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com

[Knutsen]

Don't know about that. Here are the tiebreaker rules. But, everything can be more or less settled today if Mavs win against Hou and Phoenix beats depleted NO.

NBA Team Standings & Stats | NBA.com

Thank you - so we have to root for the Suns today to basically ensure our top 6 spot. And then play wait and see if it‘d be better to finish 5th or 6th, depending on how the race between the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Thunder ends. Denver loses both tiebreakers by the way, but have the easier schedule in their favor.

[omahen]

Thank you - so we have to root for the Suns today to basically ensure our top 6 spot. And then play wait and see if it‘d be better to finish 5th or 6th, depending on how the race between the Nuggets, Timberwolves and Thunder ends. Denver loses both tiebreakers by the way, but have the easier schedule in their favor.

Exactly. If Mavs win and NO loses, Mavs would have a 3 game lead plus the tiebreaker against them with only 4 games left. And still 1 game (plus tiebreaker) against Suns. They could really take it easy and make sure to get as healthy as possible to play-offs. Limit minutes of key players, award bench guys with some minutes and so on. Lakers could theoretically be a bit closer than NO if they win against Minny today, but still very far behind and I think Mavs also have a tiebreaker on them.

[F Gump]

For practical purposes, the one tiebreaker or race the Mavs want to win the most is vs NO, because that would be for division winner. In general it's bragging points just to win the division, so there's that. In addition, being div winner would give the Mavs the tiebreaker against EVERY other team that is not #1 in their own division (which is somewhat moot, since the Mavs already own the tiebreak against about all the other teams close to them).

The Mavs have already clinched the tiebreaker vs NO, on the basis of better DIV record, which is the next tiebreaker after H2H for teams in same DIV.

They also have already clinched the tiebreaker vs both LAL and PHX, on the basis of HTH.

[Knutsen]

For practical purposes, the one tiebreaker or race the Mavs want to win the most is vs NO, because that would be for division winner. In general it's bragging points just to win the division, so there's that. In addition, being div winner would give the Mavs the tiebreaker against EVERY other team that is not #1 in their own division (which is somewhat moot, since the Mavs already own the tiebreak against about all the other teams close to them).

The Mavs have already clinched the tiebreaker vs NO, on the basis of better DIV record, which is the next tiebreaker after H2H for teams in same DIV.

They also have already clinched the tiebreaker vs both LAL and PHX, on the basis of HTH.

One small addition: against EVERY other team with the same record AND a tied head-to-head result (2-2 or 1-1 in the finals) for a two-way tie. You are right for a three- or four-way tie.

[Halfnir]

So, after yesterday's spectacular win over the Rockets, it's 2Ws out of 4 games to get to 50W and to seal the 5 seed as PHX and NOL are 2 games plus tiebreaker behind.

CHA and DET looks manageable. I guess they will toss the MIA game (SEGABABA on the road in party town) and keep last game against OKC as a buffer (might be meaningless to OKC and most likely also for DAL if PHX/NOL do not win all).

[MFFL]

So, after yesterday's spectacular win over the Rockets, it's 2Ws out of 4 games to get to 50W and to seal the 5 seed as PHX and NOL are 2 games plus tiebreaker behind.

Clippers are in the same boat. They need 2W out of 4 games to seal the 4 seed since they have the tiebreaker over us.

[Knutsen]

Clippers are in the same boat. They need 2W out of 4 games to seal the 4 seed since they have the tiebreaker over us.

Clippers probably sealed homecourt advantage with their big comeback win yesterday. Impressive that they stayed the course without Leonard these last games.

Interesting tidbit: if the Celtics don‘t make the finals we‘d have homecourt advantage at the moment! Or in other words we‘d be the two seed in the East right now.

[HoosierDaddyKidd]

Clippers probably sealed homecourt advantage with their big comeback win yesterday. Impressive that they stayed the course without Leonard these last games.

Interesting tidbit: if the Celtics don‘t make the finals we‘d have homecourt advantage at the moment! Or in other words we‘d be the two seed in the East right now.

So what you're saying is, if the Mavs were in the East, they'd have homecourt advantage if the C's were bounced?  Because they won't have homecourt in the West if they make the WCF unless Minny, OKC, Denver, and LAC are eliminated. Correct? With Charlotte, Detroit, and Miami (tough game) left, they should be a lock for 50 wins.

[Knutsen]

So what you're saying is, if the Mavs were in the East, they'd have homecourt advantage if the C's were bounced?  Because they won't have homecourt in the West if they make the WCF unless Minny, OKC, Denver, and LAC are eliminated. Correct?  With Charlotte, Detroit, and Miami (tough game) left, they should be a lock for 50 wins.

Not exactly, what I was trying to say: we‘d have homecourt advantage in the Finals if Boston doesn’t win the East, because we have a better record than the Bucks right now who are the second seed in the Eastern Conference.

[Branduil]

1 to go. Even though I assume rest will take priority now, you would think they should at least beat Detroit.