Dick Motta’s 10 game set

[Reunion Mav]

Ten games are in the books with a great number of 8-2 to start the season. Coach Motta used 10 game sets to preach the importance of consistently winning 6 of every 10 games to get to 50 wins, his definition of a good season. 

Watching this way helps keep the team up for every game while not getting too high or too low. He preached consistently doing winning things including preparation and practice. 

I think probably no one saw this start coming. I predicted 46 wins and I am not changing that prediction. I sure have enjoyed the wins and all of the progress I’m seeing this team make.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Kidd said lineups/rotations would be fluid for the first 10 games and it feels like he's settled into something the last couple of games.  It is hard to know because foul trouble and bench clearing leads have kept us from seeing a closing lineup.  But, the bench is basically THJ coming in for Kyrie.  Powell/Green coming in for Lively and Grant Williams and Exum coming in for Luka as Kyrie returns.  

It looks like Kidd is going to continue to give Hardy those developmental minutes in the second quarter (at least).  It also looks like Luka isn't going to play the entire first and third quarters.  I'm pleased that has continued to be the case.  We just seem to get a better version of Luka when Kidd does this.

So, when Kyrie sits the first time you have:  Powell, DJJ, THJ, Green and Luka (Green subs for GWill and DJJ is the PF)

When Kyrie returns and Luka sits you have:  Powell, THJ, Green, Exum and Kyrie (very small.  Powell and four guards)

That continues into the second quarter.  When Luka returns it is:  Lively, Williams, Green, Exum and Luka (fairly traditional)

They closed the half with Powell, THJ, Green, Luka and Kyrie (again, small)

Interestingly, Grant Williams hasn't closed the half in either of the last two games.  The Hardy 2nd quarter cameo's happen alongside Luka and at the expense of Exum.  We are still dealing with small samples, but the starting lineup has a net rating of -3.7.  Sub Green for DJJ and it is +22.4 (that surprises me given the poor games Green played recently).  But, it gives some indication why Green tends to close halves.   

Conversely, the best On-minus-Off players through 10 games are DJJ 13.4, Luka 11.9, Lively 11.6, GWill 8.9 and Exum 4.9.  Everyone else is negative which includes Irving and three mainstays of the bench in Green, Powell and THJ.  Everyone in the top 9 has a positive On Court.  As much as anything, this appears to be Kyrie's slow start more than a systemic issue with the bench.  We don't really have a true "bench" as one of the super-stars is always on the court.  

A note about DJJ.  The board seems to have settled on him as being just fine as a starter.  He's certainly contributing to winning in his minutes on the floor.  But, is he playing well?  His .366 from 3 is a career best.  His 14.2 points per 36 is also his best.  But, pretty much every other number for him is sub-standard compared to his career.  His Per 36 Turnovers, Blocks, Steals and Rebounds are below his career average.  His D-Rating is the worst of his career (the 5 players around him play into this number).  His PER and WS/48 are below his career average and his DBPM is actually negative.  His usage is most similar to his age 21 season with Miami (18/19).  But there is still a little food on the bone when you compare this season to that one.  I don't know whether to be encouraged or discouraged by all of this.  It may be that none of it matters and 'good Kyrie' makes the starting lineup work eventually.  But there are clearly lineups with DJJ that are working even if it isn't the first five to start the game.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Next 10 includes six road games.  There is a road back to back this week and four games in five nights this week with three of those on the road:

@NO
@Wash
@Milwaukee
Sac
@Lakers
@Clippers
Hou
Memphis
OKC
@Memphis

[omahen]

Conversely, the best On-minus-Off players through 10 games are DJJ 13.4, Luka 11.9, Lively 11.6, GWill 8.9 and Exum 4.9.  Everyone else is negative which includes Irving and three mainstays of the bench in Green, Powell and THJ.  Everyone in the top 9 has a positive On Court.  As much as anything, this appears to be Kyrie's slow start more than a systemic issue with the bench.  We don't really have a true "bench" as one of the super-stars is always on the court.  

Not trying to be against your opinion, just an observation. I just noticed how fluctuating the small sample on/off is. I used same metric three games ago and first four players stated above were slightly negative while Exum basically "lost" his minutes at that point. Offense with DJJ was much worse than without him. Only three games later the picture looks totally different, as offense with him is basically same while defense is still drastically better. I guess two convincing victories in last two games changed the picture a lot. 

As for line-ups. I think Green replaces DJJ on a more regular basis. He replaced Grant against Clippers because he had early foul trouble and against NO because Mavs were matching GW and Williamson sub pattern (they were both substituted at same time in Q1). Otherwise I think rotations are fairly set and individual number of minutes depend on how well a certain player is playing on a given night. Exum for example almost fell out of rotation (more doing with huge amount of guards Mavs have than with him not playing well) but was great against Clippers and played more.

[Chicagojk]

Next 10 includes six road games.  There is a road back to back this week and four games in five nights this week with three of those on the road:

@NO
@Wash
@Milwaukee
Sac
@Lakers
@Clippers
Hou
Memphis
OKC
@Memphis

That an interesting next 10.  A few wounded animals but also some teams who were expected to be good.  I am not someone to say we have only beat average to bad teams.  You play who you play.  Although I think it is fair to say with the first 10 (outside of Denver) that if the Mavs played well they had a really good chance to win the game.   As you play better teams, you may games even if you play well.   That is why you beat the lesser teams.  It just gives you more room to withstand a bad stretch, a brutal loss or minor injury.

[ballsrchr]

On/off +/- is an extremely variable criteria when weighing individual performance...especially over the short term. It has more to do with who you play with, and who you play against. Almost a "team" performance standard. I do glance at on/off figures but don't weigh them as heavily as some do.

Still...these discussions about good and bad lineups, esprit de corps, and team performance are much appreciated.

[rocky164]

Next 10 includes six road games.  There is a road back to back this week and four games in five nights this week with three of those on the road:

@NO
@Wash
@Milwaukee
Sac
@Lakers
@Clippers
Hou
Memphis
OKC
@Memphis

6-4 should be attainable.  Another 8-2 possible.

[Reunion Mav]

Next 10 includes six road games.  There is a road back to back this week and four games in five nights this week with three of those on the road:

@NO
@Wash
@Milwaukee
Sac
@Lakers
@Clippers
Hou
Memphis
OKC
@Memphis

From history of watching by the 10 game standard this is an above average difficulty set. A 50 win team might be expected to go 5-5 on such a set and certainly avoid 3-7. A hot team might go 7-3. The last 10 games would from hindsight be judged a likely 7-3 so 8-2 while experimenting with lineups is certainly a great start. 

Appreciate the very interesting discussion above.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Next 10 includes six road games.  There is a road back to back this week and four games in five nights this week with three of those on the road:

@NO
@Wash
@Milwaukee
Sac
@Lakers
@Clippers
Hou
Memphis
OKC
@Memphis

Mil/Sac is also a back to back and while not both on the road, involves a long late night road trip.  That will be pretty rough.

[fifteenth]

Thanks for this Reunion Mav! I always enjoy these updates.

[Nowitzki Way]

Ten games are in the books with a great number of 8-2 to start the season. Coach Motta used 10 game sets to preach the importance of consistently winning 6 of every 10 games to get to 50 wins, his definition of a good season. 

Watching this way helps keep the team up for every game while not getting too high or too low. He preached consistently doing winning things including preparation and practice. 

I think probably no one saw this start coming. I predicted 46 wins and I am not changing that prediction. I sure have enjoyed the wins and all of the progress I’m seeing this team make.

I enjoy looking at seasons like this. In certain chunks. For NFL games, i think alot of teams/fans used to look at it in quarter (4 games) increments. You need to go 3 and 1 in each quarter to get to 12 wins. Stuff like that.

17 games now and it messes up the math a little. But back to the NBA and the Mavs.

These next 10 games will be crucial. Starting off 8 and 2 really helps with this 10 game model going forward. We're +2 wins at the moment.

I think we need to win the games we should win. Both games vs. the Grizzlies and the game against the Wizards.  I really think the game vs the Pelicans should be a win also. That puts us at 4 games at the worst.

Then just split the remaining six against the better teams (Bucks, Lakers, Clippers, Rockets, Kings, OKC).  

We do that and get to 7 and 3 in the next 10. That would have us at 15 and 5 to start the season. Not bad. And much better than i thought.

[chaparral]

In the next set of ten games, we do not know who the tenth game opponent will be yet, due to the in-season tournament. Hopefully we win our group play and get a home knock-out game. If we are the conference wild card team, we will play on the road - Dec 4th and 5th. If we do not make the tournament, we will play 2 games against the other 22 teams that do not make the MST - DEC 6th and 8th.

[Reunion Mav]

In the next set of ten games, we do not know who the tenth game opponent will be yet, due to the in-season tournament.  Hopefully we win our group play and get a home knock-out game.  If we are the conference wild card team, we will play on the road - Dec 4th and 5th.  If we do not make the tournament, we will play 2 games against the other 22 teams that do not make the MST - DEC 6th and 8th.

Good info!  Though I would love to play in the Vegas Final and even win the first trophy I really want to beat NO and Houston both for tournament victories and important division wins, I would not mind doing that and still getting one of the 22 easier teams for our regular season game instead of against the best 8. 

I don’t know how that yet to be determined opponent ends up effecting who we end up playing if it even effects it at all in the end.

[Reunion Mav]

20 games in the books at 12-8, 4-6 for this 10 game set. If this is one of only 2 4-6 stretches or 10 game sets for the whole year we can be ok and get to the 46 wins I and several others predicted. This was a tough set of games. We probably weren’t 8-2 level good and hopefully we are not 4-6 level below average as a team.
Some good developmental things happened and some guys got some interesting minutes. The ownership changes were quite the development for the future. We really need to bounce back with a 6-4 or better to meet Coach Motta’s consistency standards.

[Nowitzki Way]

This was a tough set of games. We probably weren’t 8-2 level good and hopefully we are not 4-6 level below average as a team.

I agree. We're not 8 -  2 good, and we're not 4 - 6 bad. 

12 - 8 averages out to  6 wins, 4 losses.. I think we're more in like with that.

[Reunion Mav]

I agree. We're not 8 -  2 good, and we're not 4 - 6 bad. 

12 - 8 averages out to  6 wins, 4 losses.. I think we're more in like with that.

Average 6-4 for 8 sets and you finish 49 and 33. Do it with consistency and the poor 3 game losing streaks don’t matter much because you have sandwiched the losing streaks with successful wins to maintain overall consistency. This is what 50 win teams do. It’s another way of saying don’t get too high or two low. Fans can decline to go off the deep end during losses.

[Reunion Mav]

Whew. Luka carried us to the victory and a 6-4 record for the 3rd 10 game set. Good start and good finish.
With the schedule and the guys out this one was impressive.

[rocky164]

7-3 next ten

[Reunion Mav]

One game late on this update. The bad loss to NO also dropped us to 5-5 for the 4th 10 game set. Disappointing finish but given all the missed games due to injury our guys fought hard often enough to play 500 ball. We are 23-17 after 40 games dropping one game behind the 60% win pace. For the season that would project to 47 wins. I and several others projected 46 wins so we are pretty good shape.

With the win today we are at the halfway point in the season at 24-17 which projects to 48 wins. Again not to shabby. We have gotten to see our 3-13 guys in real games which has its benefits even though some have been less than hoped for. At least we know much more about what guys have recently done with the overall team results not bad at all and slightly above our preseason expectations.

[dirkfansince1998]

One win ahead compared to last season with a brutal schedule coming up in the next few weeks. 15 games left before the allstar break. 8-7 would be a good outcome. At least play 0.500 ball.