Mavs MVP at the 5% Mark (sans Luka)

[fifteenth]

Alrighty then. We're at the not very important 5% mark of the season. This is how I see the non-Luka MVP race for the Mavs:

1. Grant Williams
2. Dereck Lively 
3. Timmy 
4. Derrick Jones Jr. 

Who thought this would happen    I guess the consternation towards JKidd for his early season rotation choices didn't age well.  

Good job new Mavs and new Timmy!! 

RE: Timmy -> How did he get so relaxed, free flowing and unconscious!? He's playing lin a zone, like he's not thinking (in a good way), like he's got headphones on, and he just doesn't care (in a good way). Love this Timmy!

[DanSchwartzgan]

Alrighty then. We're at the not very important 5% mark of the season. This is how I see the non-Luka MVP race for the Mavs:

1. Grant Williams
2. Dereck Lively 
3. Timmy 
4. Derrick Jones Jr. 

I think it has to be Lively.

1.  The numbers say so.  His on-court time is just dominant.  
2.  He’s arguably been at his best when the team has needed it the most.
3.  He makes the rest of the O work.  You have to account for him, but you can’t leave any of GWill, Josh, Kyrie, Timmy (and apparently DJJ too).  
4.  There are guys who can fill in for the other guys on your list.  There isn’t a replacement for all that Lively does.  It makes him…what’s the word…Valuable.
5.  The D numbers when he’s playing are really good
6.  It was unexpected (as was a 4-0 start)

Kyrie hasn’t played enough.  Josh hasn’t played well enough (though his time on the court has been very positive).  Tim has been great, but he could be back-filled by someone else.  I’d put Grant at #2 mainly because of D and that incredible ‘season-long’ shooting percentage through this critical juncture in the year.

[fifteenth]

I think it has to be Lively.

1.  The numbers say so.  His on-court time is just dominant.  
2.  He’s arguably been at his best when the team has needed it the most.
3.  He makes the rest of the O work.  You have to account for him, but you can’t leave any of GWill, Josh, Kyrie, Timmy (and apparently DJJ too).  
4.  There are guys who can fill in for the other guys on your list.  There isn’t a replacement for all that Lively does.  It makes him…what’s the word…Valuable.
5.  The D numbers when he’s playing are really good
6.  It was unexpected (as was a 4-0 start)

Kyrie hasn’t played enough.  Josh hasn’t played well enough (though his time on the court has been very positive).  Tim has been great, but he could be back-filled by someone else.  I’d put Grant at #2 mainly because of D and that incredible ‘season-long’ shooting percentage through this critical juncture in the year.

Thanks for playing! Good analysis, good points. 

I'm sure you're probably right to choose Lively. No complaints here. I think I leaned towards Grant because he's played a good bit more minutes and, by all accounts, has given the team some leadership that they apparently have been missing for most of the Luka era. Plus, I wanted to poke the board a bit because of all the opening night starting lineup consternation. But don't tell anyone that!

My prediction about the impact of the players I listed in particular is this: 

Grant and Lively will still be on the short list of non-Luka MVPs at the end of the year but I have no clue whether the others will.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Thanks for playing! Good analysis, good points. 

Grant and Lively will still be on the short list of non-Luka MVPs at the end of the year but I have no clue whether the others will.

Back at you…and welcome back.

It is a good problem to have that we have multiple candidates.  

I thought this was as good a place as any to point out that we shouldn’t sleep on Josh Green.  I came across a site called NBArotations.info that creates a heat map of when players are playing.  While some here don’t value what Josh does, it is clear the coaching staff does.  Josh is playing by far the most 4th quarter minutes.  It isn’t just the closing minutes.  He’s playing nearly the entire 4th so far this season.  It is significantly different than it was last season.

[fifteenth]

Back at you…and welcome back.

It is a good problem to have that we have multiple candidates.  

I thought this was as good a place as any to point out that we shouldn’t sleep on Josh Green.  I came across a site called NBArotations.info that creates a heat map of when players are playing.  While some here don’t value what Josh does, it is clear the coaching staff does.  Josh is playing by far the most 4th quarter minutes.  It isn’t just the closing minutes.  He’s playing nearly the entire 4th so far this season.  It is significantly different than it was last season.

I'm not worried about Josh. Four games, during which the team is incorporating several new rotation players, is not a good sample size to use to claim much at all, especially that a player suddenly can't do what he did last season, or that the team who just paid him doesn't like him for some reason. 

Sounds like you might be ok with this early season guess: He may be valuable on this particular roster as a 2nd unit player who closes games because that puts him where he can thrive and where the team currently needs him most.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Sounds like you might be ok with this early season guess: He may be valuable on this particular roster as a 2nd unit player who closes games because that puts him where he can thrive and where the team currently needs him most.

The way I’d say it is he’s clearly in their top 5.  He just isn’t starting.

Many many people theorized that we might get a better version of Josh if he played in the solo-star minutes.  Great, I think that theory is valid.  He absolutely has to finish games (and it obviously isn’t just me who thinks so).  Well, if you do the solo-star minutes and close halves, you can’t do all of that and start.

So, I don’t consider him a second unit player.  I do think it is reasonable for him to come off the bench (especially if we come up with a replacement who isn’t hurting us).  DJJ is -1, +1, +12 and +11 in his four games this season (kind of the definition of not hurting us).  Thankfully the all-important first 5% of the season is all that matters and the other 95% is just window dressing until the playoffs get here.

[omahen]

I think GW has been most consistent of the bunch. Great and versatile defender who really punishes opponents if left open. Needless to say Luka centric team creates open looks.

Lively and DJJ both had two good games and two not that great ones (especially DJJ first two games were bad). Expectations for both were much lower, so I would have them sharing second place. DJJ really positively surprised me, mainly because he is not affraid to shoot a three. I remember him being way more hesitant. As long as he can be around 33 % shooter from a decent amount of attempts, defenses will have to be more honest with him. Some teams were gambling leaving him more open, but he did punish them.

THJ is scoring, but he was too much of a tunnel visioned chucker for my taste in most of the games. Taking many quick and difficult shots. I love the ability to hit a difficult shot, just don't appreciate it in the first "5 seconds" of the offense. Its great if they are going in at reasonable rate, but past experience shows that there will be many occasions where they won't.

Green is a great glue guy, but didn't take a step forward offensively so far. Even many stupid basic turnovers when trying to pass when already in the air. As if teams expect him more to pass than shoot. If he would have 50 % of THJ chucker in him, his yearly contract would likely start with a number 2, followed by a number between 0-9 and then 6 zeroes.

[MrGoat]

Dereck Lively: Offensive Rating 122.7 Defensive Rating 108.0

[The Jom]

Great thread. Great question. Love the GW/DL argument. Both have been way better than I could have dreamed. Meanwhile Kyrie has been MIA figuratively and/or literally. And Tim looks like the most underappreciated Mav in history.

My vote goes to Nico. (Cop out for sure. But a valid point nonetheless.)

[myconsumerclub]

Tie between DL and GW they both can secure it going forward if they perform better. best 5th wheel has been the harder fight between the remaining guys. Irving will return to form and secure his 2 spot leaving GW and DL to fight over 3/4.

5th wheel candidates seems to me to be THJ, Green, DJJ. Add in Hardy, and Exum if they get enough minutes.

I want OMAX to get more time as well. Seth seems like a guy who can shoot but not defend well enough to earn minutes.

More size would help and we need it desperately. Powell gets trusted but is failure waiting to happen, Kleber injury could hurt more than you know now. Holmes will need to get minutes as well as Morrison and OMAX. Another project at center might make sense. Next draft there will be a lot of size worth taking in the 2nd round surely we can address that need then but if we could gamble on a guy that is young now and trade for him with our pick I would not be against that deal.

[omahen]

I didn't want to start a new thread and this one seems closest to put down a couple of thoughts I had after the season start. Basically trying to use numbers to confirm what I have been consistently saying

Looking at early season data, it seems Mavs had şet up player roles quite well. Although it has a lot of limitations, I will use on/off numbers to "build my case". Every player on the team has a positive "on" rating, which is logical since they won most of games. Almost all players also have a positive "off" rating, which shows to me that team is deep and game situation doesn't change much when substitutions are done. Green is the only exception, as team plays much worse in minutes without him on the floor.

Looking at starters first, Luka has a slightly negative on/off. Offense with him on the floor is great, but it doesn't get much worse when off the floor. Defense is a little bit better when he is off the floor. Pretty logically Mavs have defensive problems with Kyrie on the court. Similar to Luka, offense is good with him on or off the court, on/off offense basically same. Lively is again similar story. Offense a bit better, defense a bit worse with him off the court. Very little difference in on/off numbers for GW too. It gets interesting from this point on.

Team is thriving with the role Green is playing. He is surely a better overall player than DJJ, but it seems the role he is playing is very good for the team. DJJ role on the other hand brings biggest negative on/off difference from the starting unit. Defense is very good with him on the floor, but offense (predictably) much worse. The other "negative" is THJ, especially because defense gets much worse with him on the floor. This is again pretty logical, as it is difficult to have good defense playing him next to Kyrie/Luka or Kyrie alone. THJ can be a very good player in correct set-up, but even though he is not a bad individual defender, Mavs simply need plus defenders on all positions next to their stars. Mavs having a bunch of SG on the bench who then play at same time also doesn't really help Timmys case. Especially, since the league is becoming so full of skilled tall guys.

Hardy numbers are really difficult to explain. For whatever reason, team defense is great with him on the floor. I would really need to dig into line-up data to understand that. A small sample probably plays a big role here.

Based on this early numbers, there are imho two possible solutions:
- Trade. Put someone else in DJJ role playing him THJ minutes (THJ is in any case the most realistic salary going out in any trade). DJJ keeps his minutes coming from the bench. That someone else needs to be great defender (to keep positive DJJ defensive impact), who is also good offensively (to improve worse offense we have now with DJJ on the floor). Roles of other players are well set. Lively might not be a contender level center yet, but will get there.
- Start Green and have DJJ come from the bench, both playing same minutes. I am not so sure this one would have a lot of impact. I would expect Greens numbers to become a bit worse and DJJ a bit better, but overall team result very similar.

[StrandedOnBeauboisHill]

Based on this early numbers, there are imho two possible solutions:
- Trade. Put someone else in DJJ role playing him THJ minutes (THJ is in any case the most realistic salary going out in any trade). DJJ keeps his minutes coming from the bench. That someone else needs to be great defender (to keep positive DJJ defensive impact), who is also good offensively (to improve worse offense we have now with DJJ on the floor). Roles of other players are well set. Lively might not be a contender level center yet, but will get there.

All signs are pointing to this but the one aspect of this that I see slightly differently is that a trade using Hardaway to get a DJJ upgrade probably eliminates DJJ's role altogether honestly.  Right now DJJ/Hardaway are combining for about 50 minutes a game.  I would think if we brought in someone like your guy Jerami Grant that he would eat up close to 35 of those and the majority of the remaining 15 would probably be going to Hardy, even if he took all 15 of those minutes on he's still be under 30 minutes a game.  

Very onboard with the general concept though.

[DanSchwartzgan]

Based on this early numbers, there are imho two possible solutions:

- Trade. Put someone else in DJJ role playing him THJ minutes (THJ is in any case the most realistic salary going out in any trade). DJJ keeps his minutes coming from the bench. That someone else needs to be great defender (to keep positive DJJ defensive impact), who is also good offensively (to improve worse offense we have now with DJJ on the floor). Roles of other players are well set. Lively might not be a contender level center yet, but will get there.

- Start Green and have DJJ come from the bench, both playing same minutes. I am not so sure this one would have a lot of impact. I would expect Greens numbers to become a bit worse and DJJ a bit better, but overall team result very similar.

I wonder if DJJ would keep much of his playing time if moved to the bench.  To me, the only way he really works is with the very best offensive players around him.  Kyrie and Luka can theoretically overcome the lack of spacing when Jones plays with either Lively or Powell.  But, that probably doesn’t happen if you pair DJJ with Lively or Powell surrounded by lessor offensive players.  The only real opportunities for DJJ off the bench would be with Maxi at center or in small-ball lineups (which we saw last night).  I think this applies whether Green moves to the starting lineup or you bring in a new starter from the outside.

DJJ and Lively lineups are negative and DJJ and Powell lineups are net flat.  The DJJ/Kleber lineups are massively positive, but the sample size is minuscule.  Pretty much anything with Green is working, but he plays a super important swing role right now.  He’s part of what makes the single-star lineups work and he’s part of what makes the late game dual-star lineups work.  If he’s moved to the starting lineup and DJJ joins the bench, I worry whether it will work as well.  DJJ/THJ lineups are very negative so far this season.

I’m starting to see calls for someone bigger than GWill who defends like DJJ and hits 3’s with consistency.  I agree that is a need.  Maxi is supposed to fill that need, but he’s either been hurt or has been the center the few minutes he’s played.  I know Kidd is experimenting, but I’d like to see more of Maxi as backup 4, especially when we play bigger teams like Denver.  Powell has been just fine in his center minutes.

PJ was reportedly considered this summer, but he and GWill as your starting forwards would be a defensive problem on the perimeter.  Thybulle was obviously considered, but he’s basically DJJ at 5x the cost.  I think Green is the answer and you make your trade for someone to replace him on the bench who is a better version of DJJ/Maxi.  Or, as I’ve said before, you take a bigger swing for someone who is good enough to push either Josh or GWill to the bench.  If he’s bigger, he pushes Williams.  If he can guard the perimeter, he pushes Josh.  I’m not sure we have the ammunition for the latter until this summer.  It won’t be easy to improve on Maxi or DJJ as bench players with the assets we have.  One guy I’m keeping an eye on is Olynyk.  I could see Ainge cashing him in once Utah is out of the running.

[omahen]

I wonder if DJJ would keep much of his playing time if moved to the bench.  To me, the only way he really works is with the very best offensive players around him.  Kyrie and Luka can theoretically overcome the lack of spacing when Jones plays with either Lively or Powell.  But, that probably doesn’t happen if you pair DJJ with Lively or Powell surrounded by lessor offensive players.  The only real opportunities for DJJ off the bench would be with Maxi at center or in small-ball lineups (which we saw last night).  I think this applies whether Green moves to the starting lineup or you bring in a new starter from the outside.

DJJ and Lively lineups are negative and DJJ and Powell lineups are net flat.  The DJJ/Kleber lineups are massively positive, but the sample size is minuscule.  Pretty much anything with Green is working, but he plays a super important swing role right now.  He’s part of what makes the single-star lineups work and he’s part of what makes the late game dual-star lineups work.  If he’s moved to the starting lineup and DJJ joins the bench, I worry whether it will work as well.  DJJ/THJ lineups are very negative so far this season.

I’m starting to see calls for someone bigger than GWill who defends like DJJ and hits 3’s with consistency.  I agree that is a need.  Maxi is supposed to fill that need, but he’s either been hurt or has been the center the few minutes he’s played.  I know Kidd is experimenting, but I’d like to see more of Maxi as backup 4, especially when we play bigger teams like Denver.  Powell has been just fine in his center minutes.

PJ was reportedly considered this summer, but he and GWill as your starting forwards would be a defensive problem on the perimeter.  Thybulle was obviously considered, but he’s basically DJJ at 5x the cost.  I think Green is the answer and you make your trade for someone to replace him on the bench who is a better version of DJJ/Maxi.  Or, as I’ve said before, you take a bigger swing for someone who is good enough to push either Josh or GWill to the bench.  If he’s bigger, he pushes Williams.  If he can guard the perimeter, he pushes Josh.  I’m not sure we have the ammunition for the latter until this summer.  It won’t be easy to improve on Maxi or DJJ as bench players with the assets we have.  One guy I’m keeping an eye on is Olynyk.  I could see Ainge cashing him in once Utah is out of the running.

Yeah, DJJ with Maxi from bench should work and this is a role I would see for him. As I said, I think Green is great in his current role. I don't think it changes in any way if Mavs bring a legit starter to replace DJJ in the starting unit by taking THJ minutes. That guy should be able to provide DJJ defensive role and THJ offensive role. I don't think Mavs are a contender without such a guy. Moving Green to starting unit this season could make bench units much less effective, which is not the case now. But, it doesn't really hurt to give it a try. I agree it is most likely we will see such a move during summer, not this season. This season I would watch the buyout market, it looks pretty certain a couple or more of PF Philly received from LAC will be traded at TDL. 

I don't think Mavs ever targeted PJ. I think that was just Mavs twitter thing. I remember Stein saying that.

Edit: I would not spend any assets unless it is a surefire starter level we are describing. Minor change will not make this team a contender, just a waste of assets

[DanSchwartzgan]

I don't think Mavs ever targeted PJ. I think that was just Mavs twitter thing. I remember Stein saying that.

Actually PJ was asked about it in the last week or so and said something along the lines of ‘yeah, it was close to happening’.

[The Jom]

When Kyrie starts making some of his 3s (24%) and GW starts missing a few here and there (54%), these numbers are likely to swing some, no?

Also, home court may be the only thing that matters come playoffs if the refs are gonna foul Lively out in 10 mins on the road. That’s why I don’t care much about this year except as a set up for next year.

[HAguiar95]

I have my own grade (1-10) for every game, minimun of 10 min played. team average is at 5,8. So far after 7 games I have:

Tier I

7,1 - DONCIC (7 Games)
7,0 - WILLIAMS (7 games)

Tier II

6,4 - LIVELY II (7 games)
6,3 - HARDAWAY JR. (7 games)
6,2 - IRVING (5 games)

Tier III

5,6 - GREEN (7 games)
5,5 - JONES JR. (7 games)
5,4 - HARDY (5 games)
5,3 - POWELL (6 games)
5,0 - EXUM (1 game)

Tier IV

4,3 - KLEBER (3 games)