Dame Trade: Dame to MIL| Holiday+Ayton+1sts to POR| Nurkic, Allen, Little to PHX

[omahen]

Are the Celtics one of the winners of the Dame trade?  With Miami missing out, it really feels like a two team race in the East.  Miami can never be discounted and Philly still has the talent to compete for a title, but it sorts out the playing field.  In addition, while Milwaukee is formidable and maybe better, they have less wing defense talent to match up against Tatum and Brown. 

It seems like Jrue will have a lot of suitors.  I hear the Celtics while interested, probably isn't likely.  From what I understand they would have to include Brogdon (they seem fine with that) and either Robert Williams or Al Horford.  Plus a pick or two.    That seems like a lot.  But if it was Williams, would you have an interest in him?  Any idea what his value is?

True, Boston would need to send Brogdon and one of their centers, opening a hole from last season they (think) just plugged with KP. 

As it was discussed before, the JRue value is likely something as an expiring contract, FRP and a young player. Similar to Boston, Dallas would also need to send Holmes (or Kleber) in addition to THJ, which could mean additional problems at center. However, I could see a world where Portland would value Green and 27 pick. 

Portland is way over salary cap for next season, so perhaps expiring salary is not that relevant for them. Unless they make other salary dumping deals, they can't really get relevant cap space for next season (or even a season after), as all their high salary guys (Simons, Grant, Ayton, Henderson and Thybulle) have long term deals.

[ItsGoTime]

I can’t see why Portland, who already are kinda set with guards they want to have for the future, would want to trade for 2 more guards. I think their best bet is to circle back to Tor to try and get OG, but Masai seems intent on saying he’s available while not making him available. Wonder if Por would do Jrue and Sharpe for OG though. That could fairly quickly become a team to look out for if all those pieces mesh well.

Scoot/Simons/OG/Grant/Ayton

Really good starting group if Ayton and Scoot play up to their potential.

[ItsGoTime]

Found this in the recent Sharnia/Amick Athletic article that was put out today.

“For their part, league sources say the Heat were prepared in July and August to offer up to three first-round draft picks — with Tyler Herro going to a third team — and multiple second-rounders and swaps along with expiring contracts and 2022 first-round pick Nikola Jović. But the Blazers were disinterested, with each side developing a level of contentiousness.”

That is for sure, IMO, a better deal than they got, unless they think they can get a couple picks in the Jrue trade. Kinda surprised at the level of pettiness going on if the article is to be believed.

[omahen]

Found this in the recent Sharnia/Amick Athletic article that was put out today.

“For their part, league sources say the Heat were prepared in July and August to offer up to three first-round draft picks — with Tyler Herro going to a third team — and multiple second-rounders and swaps along with expiring contracts and 2022 first-round pick Nikola Jović. But the Blazers were disinterested, with each side developing a level of contentiousness.”

That is for sure, IMO, a better deal than they got, unless they think they can get a couple picks in the Jrue trade. Kinda surprised at the level of pettiness going on if the article is to be believed.

I agree that it looks like Milwaukee paid much for Lillard, but a lot depends on how much is Jrue worth. Obviously Portland didn't want Herro, but neither they want JRue. Miami would also need to send Martin to Phoenix to make the Ayton part of the deal (I think he is easily same value as Allen that was the only player going from Milwaukee to Phoenix). Final verdict could be done only after Portland trades Jrue. But lets say they get two picks for him and Miami would be prepared to include Martin instead of Jovic in the deal.

Miami offer for Portland: Ayton, 3 picks, whatever contract from third team for Herro, second rounders and swaps (with Miami sending Martin to Phoenix)
Milwaukee deal for Portland: Ayton, 3 picks, 2 pick swaps, whatever contract from third team for Jrue

Assuming Portland can get two picks for JRue, it looks very similar value for both deals.

[Chicagojk]

I can’t see why Portland, who already are kinda set with guards they want to have for the future, would want to trade for 2 more guards. I think their best bet is to circle back to Tor to try and get OG, but Masai seems intent on saying he’s available while not making him available. Wonder if Por would do Jrue and Sharpe for OG though. That could fairly quickly become a team to look out for if all those pieces mesh well.

Scoot/Simons/OG/Grant/Ayton

Really good starting group if Ayton and Scoot play up to their potential.

I would be surprised if Portland is interested in moving Sharpe.   He is probably a tad behind Scoot as an untouchable to Portland.    I saw a note earlier that Portland may try to move Grant once he is trade eligible.  That makes sense.  But that contract is going to really water down his value.  

I expect Portland to go the long view.  they have a few other interesting younger players, but next year is to see Scoot and Sharpe have fun and hopefully get to Ayton.

[ItsGoTime]

I would be surprised if Portland is interested in moving Sharpe.   He is probably a tad behind Scoot as an untouchable to Portland.    I saw a note earlier that Portland may try to move Grant once he is trade eligible.  That makes sense.  But that contract is going to really water down his value.  

I expect Portland to go the long view.  they have a few other interesting younger players, but next year is to see Scoot and Sharpe have fun and hopefully get to Ayton.

To make salaries work, Trent Jr and some small contract needs to be added from Tor. I added Koloko as the small salary, but we know Por was reportedly after Dick. OG and Trent plus Koloko or Dick for Jrue and Sharpe doesn’t seem far off. Most of the guys they are getting are on either Ayton’s or Scoot’s timeline. Sharpe and Simons kinda play the same role, so using the current lesser of the two to fully balance out the team would make sense to me.

[mvossman]

I'm honestly on board for a Jrue addition. Despite his quirky fit next to Luka and Kyrie, his defense and offensive creation makes him an obvious choice. Also gives you Kyrie insurance of course.

I will say though what do you guys think is worth giving up for Jrue? Especially since he doesn't solve any of the center problems the Mavs have and will probably clean the cupboard of assets.

THJ+Holmes+Green plus the 2027 FRP?

Starting lineup is:
Kyrie
Jrue
OMax
Luka
Powell

I will say after writing it out, I think a move like that just exacerbates the Mavs current unbalanced roster.

I agree with your conclusion.  This would be a win now move that does not make sense unless we can upgrade the center, and we just burned all of our assets on Jrue.

Also, neither Timmy nor Holmes are expiring.  I doubt that is the kind of package Portland is looking for.

[ItsGoTime]

I agree that it looks like Milwaukee paid much for Lillard, but a lot depends on how much is Jrue worth. Obviously Portland didn't want Herro, but neither they want JRue. Miami would also need to send Martin to Phoenix to make the Ayton part of the deal (I think he is easily same value as Allen that was the only player going from Milwaukee to Phoenix). Final verdict could be done only after Portland trades Jrue. But lets say they get two picks for him and Miami would be prepared to include Martin instead of Jovic in the deal.

Miami offer for Portland: Ayton, 3 picks, whatever contract from third team for Herro, second rounders and swaps (with Miami sending Martin to Phoenix)
Milwaukee deal for Portland: Ayton, 3 picks, 2 pick swaps, whatever contract from third team for Jrue

Assuming Portland can get two picks for JRue, it looks very similar value for both deals.

I agree if Jrue yields 2 FRPs then it would be pretty much even. Color me skeptical after seeing what they accepted for Dame. Either way, we’re talking about making the trades equal. If they are equal, why not just make the deal with Mia where Dame wants to go? Could’ve also skipped the offseason-long drama by making it sooner. Pettiness.

[rocky164]

I’m finally glad to see a team stand up to their star who demanded to be traded. Portland maybe could have gotten more value but that’s yet to be seen until Jrue is traded. But Dame didn’t get to pick his destination. This is a good thing for the NBA. Harden not going to the Clippers falls into the same category. A player signs a contract, then gets unhappy with the team and asks for a trade. I have no problem with that, but what I don’t like is a player signing a contract, demanding a trade, then telling the team he’ll only go to one team. I’m hoping that era of NBA player movement is over.

[omahen]

Hollinger thinks JRue is worth 2 unprotected firsts, expiring salary and even some young players

Miami fantasy trade: Lowry, Highsmith, Jaquez or Jovic and 2 FRP
Clippers: Morris, RoCo, Coffey, Preston and 2 FRP

https://theathletic.com/4908778/2023/09/...e-holiday/

[ItsGoTime]

Hollinger thinks JRue is worth 2 unprotected firsts, expiring salary and even some young players

Miami fantasy trade: Lowry, Highsmith, Jaquez or Jovic and 2 FRP
Clippers: Morris, RoCo, Coffey, Preston and 2 FRP

https://theathletic.com/4908778/2023/09/...e-holiday/

So…Hollinger thinks Jrue is worth more than Dame was just traded for? So dumb.

Edit: I realize that Jrue’s value is built into the Dame trade and that basically Dame is 1 FRP and a couple swaps more than Jrue. It’s just weird to look at it that way.

I also have a really hard time believing any team would give that much up for him.

[mvossman]

Hollinger thinks JRue is worth 2 unprotected firsts, expiring salary and even some young players

Miami fantasy trade: Lowry, Highsmith, Jaquez or Jovic and 2 FRP
Clippers: Morris, RoCo, Coffey, Preston and 2 FRP

https://theathletic.com/4908778/2023/09/...e-holiday/

I find myself not taking Hollinger very seriously mostly due to that dumb formula he uses to estimate free agent value.  Maybe he is better with these kind of takes, but I am a little skeptical Jrue is going to command two unprotected firsts and young players.  He is expiring, 33 years old, and not a dominant offensive force.

[KillerLeft]

So…Hollinger thinks Jrue is worth more than Dame was just traded for? So dumb.

Edit: I realize that Jrue’s value is built into the Dame trade and that basically Dame is 1 FRP and a couple swaps more than Jrue. It’s just weird to look at it that way.

I also have a really hard time believing any team would give that much up for him.

I think it would be a MIRACLE if they got an offer even close to that. That's almost what MIL paid 2-3 years ago, and this time around everyone knows that Portland almost needs to move him, and that trading for him probably means you'll have to give him a contract that 100% will lead to regret at some point.

---

Is the trade official, or are they waiting to find a fourth team for Holiday?

If they execute as a 3-team, how long before Holiday can be traded?

[omahen]

I think it would be a MIRACLE if they got an offer even close to that. That's almost what MIL paid 2-3 years ago, and this time around everyone knows that Portland almost needs to move him, and that trading for him probably means you'll have to give him a contract that 100% will lead to regret at some point.

---

Is the trade official, or are they waiting to find a fourth team for Holiday?

If they execute as a 3-team, how long before Holiday can be traded?

I think the trade is official. I think JRue can be moved immediately, as long as he is not combined with other players from Portland

[omahen]

Regarding his value. There are many teams that could think that JRue is a player who could considerably increase their chances. There is only one chip and only so many JRues available. And perhaps most importantly, if you don't get him, someone else will.

Look at Miami, for example. They lost a lot of depth and have to basically decide to either go all in or start thinking about moving Butler. Would you really want to give him huge contract as he will likely start to decline at some point. Same with Clippers and their aging stars.

I don't think those packages are close to what Portland got for Lillard. Lillard demanded a key player from Milwaukee to be had. JRue is bad (expiring) salary and draft assets. Other than perhaps Jovic, those young players mentioned are nothing special. JRue is one of the best defenders in the game and not necessarily expiring, as he has player option. While Lillard may be better, his contract is monstrous and most likely over years where he will start declining. Compare Miami offers for example.

Lillard: Herro, Jovic, 2 picks
JRue: Lowry, Jovic, 2 picks

[KillerLeft]

Lillard: Herro, Jovic, 2 picks
JRue: Lowry, Jovic, 2 picks

I do not believe in Holiday THAT MUCH, personally, especially at his age, but I suppose some team might. This will be interesting.

[RGP1981]

Are the Celtics one of the winners of the Dame trade?  With Miami missing out, it really feels like a two team race in the East.  Miami can never be discounted and Philly still has the talent to compete for a title, but it sorts out the playing field.  In addition, while Milwaukee is formidable and maybe better, they have less wing defense talent to match up against Tatum and Brown. 

It seems like Jrue will have a lot of suitors.  I hear the Celtics while interested, probably isn't likely.  From what I understand they would have to include Brogdon (they seem fine with that) and either Robert Williams or Al Horford.  Plus a pick or two.    That seems like a lot.  But if it was Williams, would you have an interest in him?  Any idea what his value is?

I think Miami makes sense as the team who will go after and likely get Jrue. They will probably offer the same package they offered for Dame. It may not have been enough to get Dame, but it might be enough for them to get Jrue.

The Bulls are another team who could trade for him. Jrue would replace Lonzo and fit in well along Lavine, DeRozan, Vucevic.

[Chicagojk]

Refresh my memory, did Miami have any interest in Irving last year? It seems like they have passed on some gettable guys for the BIG guy. But I guess Miami is a big game hunter and they did go to the finals last year. Just feels like Irving would have been a good fit with the rest of their roster.

[ItsGoTime]

They passed on Irving thinking they had Dame in the bag. If they whiff on Jrue too? I’m sure they’ll circle back to him if we were to make him available. That would be harsh for Irving considering his commitments in the last press conference however. Never know about him.

[omahen]

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