Mid-Level targets

[MFFL]

I thought it would be nice to have a thread combine our candidates for the MLE. My estimation is that we need a wing - preferable a big wing. Who do you think we will sign?

Probably or definitely out of our price range
• Miles Bridges
• Dillon Brooks
• Bruce Brown
• Jerami Grant
• Cam Johnson
• Kyle Kuzma
• P.J. Washington

Maybes
• Harrison Barnes
• Jae Crowder
• Rui Hachimura
• Matisse Thybulle
• Grant Williams

[Chicagojk]

I wouldn’t read too much on Hollinger’s BORDS $ figure.  It is his formula and I remember they were way off for some contracts guys eventually got.


7. Grant Williams, 24, Boston (restricted): $15,159,221

Williams is a 6-6 power forward with a career PER of 9.7. And yet, he’s become an indispensable player for one of the best teams in the league because of his ability to defend multiple positions and make open 3-pointers. He’s a 37.9 percent career marksman from deep who offers highly switchable defense, which means he’s much more playoff-viable than most players of this ilk.

Between Williams’ wavering role in the second half of the season and Boston’s luxury-tax situation, some wonder if the Celtics would match a strong offer sheet for him; something in the high teens would push Boston to within inches of the punitive second apron. At the same time, it’s hard to see how Boston could replace him in its rotation if he were to walk, and the Celtics could likely move other contracts (notably Danilo Gallinari and Payton Pritchard) to ease their tax burden.


6. Harrison Barnes, 31, Sacramento: $17,473,621

Barnes isn’t a spring chicken anymore, but he’s been incredibly durable, shoots 37.8 percent from 3 for his career, still has enough juice off the dribble to attack a closeout, and his strength allows him to hold up well in size mismatches

That list of strengths made him a great fit in Sacramento this season, but it’s possible the Kings seek an upgrade. If they renounce Barnes, they can generate about $21 million in cap room, even while keeping Trey Lyles’ Bird rights. That might give them an opening to try upgrading to a younger model (such as P.J. Washington or the Wizards’ Kyle Kuzma), although the Pacers will likely eat first at the four.

[Winter]

I think the number of playoff games that Grant Williams has played in is pretty substantial. His good 3 and D act, coupled with his prickly attitude, make him my personal target him above all the others listed.

[Chicagojk]

For some of the targets, here are a few of my thoughts.

1) Grant Williams- I think he is the best fit. Does the glue things, brings toughness, has played in big games, is still young
Negatives- I don't think you are going to get him for the MLE and I think you need to find something for Boston not to match. He is not worth a future first and once you get over 15 million it gets a little less appealing.

2) John Collins- Probably the best player of these three. Change of scenery and would be another guy who gets easy baskets for us. I would only offer semi expirings and no assets and wait Atlanta out. If they go a different direction, that is fine.
Negative- Salary. If you acquire Collins you are pretty much eliminating any more larger salary players. Is this team ready for that move?

3) Harrison Barnes- If he can be had for the MLE, that is typically a higher level player that you get for this range. Good shooter, solid defender, great teammate.
Negatives- While he can play PF, is probably not the rebounder we need at that spot. Seems like a short term fix. Not sure he is a guy you count on in the biggest moments.

[Scott41theMavs]

Big fat no on Kuzma and Collins. No to Barnes. Not big on Brooks. This franchise can't afford to take Miles Bridges. Would love Jerami Grant, but Nico would have to pull a big rabbit out of a hat to achieve that. Washington, Brown, Rui, Jae, and the ever-mentioned Grant Williams would each be nice, with PJ my favorite of the bunch.

[Jym]

So many options out there with not many winning spots that have MLE+ money to spend and/or role to fulfill all the forwards out there

Bruce Brown would have to turn down a lot of guaranteed money to return to the Nuggets. Most they can offer in year 1 is $7.8 million

[F Gump]

Stein says Brown is Mavs #1 MLE target. That has been my preference too. I think he would be a great get if they could sign him.

[Tyler]

I agree that he'll make more than the MLE, but we should probably keep an eye on Kuzma in a S&T. Even if I've never been a big fan, I recognize that he'd unquestionably be a massive upgrade at PF. He also has a direct relationship with Kidd from their time in LA. And then there's this:

"The Jazz and Mavericks are among the teams known to have interest in Kuzma, with the Jazz said to be one of the few teams willing to put up big money in various talks early on." https://www.actionnetwork.com/nba/nba-tr...gency-2023

[khaled1987]

If Rui is obtainable for MLE, would love to go for him.
He is the one that bothered Jokic the most from LA (other than Lebron fouling him with no call) and he actually stepped up in playiffs.
Right age, experience and position fit IMO.

[Chicagojk]

Here is Hollinger’s write up on Brown. I find it weird there has been some rumors Houston may offer Brooks big money. Personally, the smarter investment would be Brown for me.

**********
2. Bruce Brown, 26, Denver (player option): $17,764,642

Brown was one of the best 2022 free-agent signings in the league, if not the best, helping the Nuggets to the NBA Finals on a bargain $6.5 million contract. (Although some people had him rated as the top free-agent small forward last summer.)

He’ll likely opt out of the second year of that deal and get paid this summer, with virtually every team with midlevel exception money or more circling him as a possibility. The Nuggets will have no Bird rights on Brown, so the only possibility of his staying is to sign a one-year deal for $7.7 million and then re-sign in Denver as an early Bird rights free agent a year from now for a likely $13.6 million. Even those numbers, however, seem to badly undervalue Brown, so it’s more likely he flies the coop.

---

I really haven't thought much on Kuzma. There are certain nights he looks like an all star though.

Although if we are talking about close to 30 million a year, I would prefer to let others get him.

[SwisherPrice]

It's going to be tough to land any of those top tier players with the MLE...even Dillon Brooks coming off a bad season offensively will probably get at least 15MM somewhere. I think Bruce Brown will demand more too since he is entering his prime, coming off a championship - this may be his best chance to make the most money of his career.

I would be hesitant to give the full MLE to some of those players in that second tier (especially Crowder or Thybulle). I would rather split it up between 2 role players like Keita Bates Diop or Jalen McDaniels (wing) and Jevon Carter (one of the better defensive PGs and insurance for when Kyrie/Luka miss their usual time for injuries). Affordable contracts for players with potential to produce - similar to what Denver did last summer with Brown.

[ThisIStheYear]

I love guys who are young (26), have solid height and length (6’8” & 6’10” wingspan), can handle some scoring load (15.5 per) while maintaining efficiency (62% TS%) and stretching the floor (40% from the 3), plays good to great defense (at least according to the advanced stats), and measures as a very good player by pretty much every advanced metric I’ve seen. That player is Cam Johnson and he’s ready to be the third best player on a championship team. I don’t know that Brooklyn realizes how good he is. I wonder if he’s available in a SnT for THJ and Josh Green plus that last 1st round pick the Mavs can trade (unprotected if needed). That should get to about a $23 million starting point for the salary (I don’t know if that’s enough). The roster would be fully rebuilt once the kids get a little experience. Just throwing out an idea that could cap off the rebuild in one year.

[DallasMaverick]

I love guys who are young (26), have solid height and length (6’8” & 6’10” wingspan), can handle some scoring load (15.5 per) while maintaining efficiency (62% TS%) and stretching the floor (40% from the 3), plays good to great defense (at least according to the advanced stats), and measures as a very good player by pretty much every advanced metric I’ve seen.  That player is Cam Johnson and he’s ready to be the third best player on a championship team.  I don’t know that Brooklyn realizes how good he is. I wonder if he’s available in a SnT for THJ and Josh Green plus that last 1st round pick the Mavs can trade (unprotected if needed). That should get to about a $23 million starting point for the salary (I don’t know if that’s enough). The roster would be fully rebuilt once the kids get a little experience.  Just throwing out an idea that could cap off the rebuild in one year.

Giving up way too much in that trade.

[soog]

Giving up way too much in that trade.

Agreed. He’s a RFA, no need to include a FRP. Make an offer more than the Nets want to match. And then offer THJ and Green to nets in a S&T, with Green being the payment for facilitating. 

If we send the nets a FRP, Bridges or Claxton better be involved.

[DallasMaverick]

Agreed. He’s a RFA, no need to include a FRP. Make an offer more than the Nets want to match. And then offer THJ and Green to nets in a S&T, with Green being the payment for facilitating. 

If we send the nets a FRP, Bridges or Claxton better be involved.

Still giving up too much.

[soog]

Still giving up too much.

Which part? THJ and Green for Johnson? Or a FRP to get in on Bridges or Claxton?

[DallasMaverick]

Which part? THJ and Green for Johnson? Or a FRP to get in on Bridges or Claxton?

THJ and Green for Johnson.

I love Johnson, but not that much.

[soog]

THJ and Green for Johnson.

I love Johnson, but not that much.

He’s expecting about $20M/y. If we want another starter level upgrade, it’s going to cost something. I appreciate Nico had an amazing draft, but he’s not going to be able to turn Bullock and a Powel S&T into a starting small forward.

[ThisIStheYear]

THJ and Green for Johnson.

I love Johnson, but not that much.

THJ and Green?  Really?  For a very good, young, defensive wing who can shoot?  Had the 2nd highest defensive raptor for the small forward position last year and can also guard the 4. Nearly 16 points with a 62% TS% and elite 3 point shooting. Cameron is a stud. That’s a big overvalue of our current role players, neither of whom are starter quality. $20 million would be a steal. If I had a choice of any free agent and didn’t have to worry about the cost, he’d be the one.

[SleepingHero]

Going to throw in Yuta Watanabe for a BAE target.